2008 User Conference

Best Practices in
Project Estimation & Control User Conference

The Portofino Hotel in Redondo Beach, CA
April 8 - 10, 2008


Downloadable Documents

Documents from presentations at the 2008 User Conference are available at the Corporate Library. You must be a registered Galorath user and logged in, in order to download these documents.

Risk Analysis with SEER and Crystal Ball

This presentation will discuss the following aspects:
How the SEER suite of tools provide such visibility.  A discussion on the reasoning behind the decision to integrate SEER and Crystal Ball.  How the Crystal Ball/SEER integration enhances a Risk Analysis capability in order to give the user better definition and control of the Risk Analysis process.

Function Point Analysis for the NASA Crew Exploration Vehicle Guidance, Navigation, and Control Flight Software

Robert Georgi - Associate, Booz Allen Hamilton
Terry Vogt - Associate, Booz Allen Hamilton

This presentation will provide a short overview of function point analysis (origins of, comparison to SLOC-based estimating, application of). A discussion of our approach (pre Software Requirements Review before there are software requirement specifications (SRS) we're working three primary areas to develop a concept of the software, this will establish a framework to quickly absorb the SRS information as it becomes available in the summer. Finally, the presentation will cover an example of the Guidance, Navigation and Control computer software configuration item (CSCI) focusing in depth on one very small area and show SEER-SEM estimate output.

What’s New in SEER for Software (SEER-SEM)


Lee Fischman - Senior Director of Development, Galorath Incorporated
Fancy Tsao - Systems Engineer/Cost Analyst, Galorath Incorporated

What's new in SEER for Software (SEER-SEM).

What’s New in SEER for Manufacturing (SEER-DFM)



Dr. Chris Rush - Senior Systems Engineer, Galorath Incorporated

What's new in SEER for Manufacturing (SEER-DFM).

Estimating ASICs for Space Applications Using SEER for Hardware, Electronics & Systems



Robert Cisneros - Technical Expert, Tecolote Research Incorporated

Today's Military Communication systems are playing an ever expanding critical role in our domestic security as well as the security of our assets abroad. Satellites that are the core of these comm systems are being required to do more complex functions and perform them faster than ever before. To accomplish complex on orbit tasks, modern space electronics are using advanced micro-electronics in their unit designs.


The rapidly changing field of advanced micro-electronics, largely developed by commercial industry, presents a problem for the cost estimator. Common cost estimating techniques using historical data or cost estimating relationships based on historical data are not well suited to address the complexity of today's electronic devices.


This presentation will focus on ASIC devices used in the military space environment and will discuss the cost drivers of these devices, describe how the SEER-IC parametric cost estimating tool is being used to develop a cost estimate for ASICs, and the what future estimating challenges may be on military space communication satellites.

A Parametric Approach to Project Cost Risk Analysis



Evin Stump - Senior Consultant, Galorath Incorporated

The currently dominant process for doing cost risk analysis of major projects is Monte Carlo simulation of risks assigned to individual WBS elements. This paper points out potential advantages of an alternate approach based on a parametric method.

Integrating SEER for Hardware and SEER for Manufacturing Estimates



Joe Falque - Product Director, Galorath Incorporated

This presentation looks at one aspect of the Galorath Incorporated multifaceted SEER Enterprise Suite's linking capability to link program parametric estimates with detailed manufacturing estimates using SEER-HW and SEER-DFM. The presentation includes definition of the estimating development space and concludes with a live demo in "How To" make the link(s) happen.

Goal Driven Performance Measurement



Terry Vogt - Associate, Booz Allen Hamilton

Performance measurement often begins without clarity on the reasons for measuring, which can lead to misdirected effort, measuring too many variables, and measures that neither inform nor guide actions to improve. Equally problematic is the misconception that performance measurement itself will solve problems without a plan for analysis and effective action in response. Lack of effective involvement in the requirements, design, process and presentation of measurement information by key shareholders compounds these problems. This presentation will illustrate an approach to avoid these pitfalls and ensure development of effective measurement programs based on specific goals and objectives.

This presentation is about effective performance measurement design and implementation. While it originated in the software development sphere, it is applied in any business area, not only those concerned with software or systems. It emphasizes the role that the ultimate users of the data play in designing a useful and valuable measurement capability.

 

Integrating Cost Analysis into the Product Development Process



Shyam Kumar - Senior Professional Services Engineer, Engineous Software
Jon Long - Sales Director, Engineous Software

In order to stay competitive in the current global economy most manufacturing organizations now use Integrated Product Teams (IPTs), and a variety of simulation tools and applications in their product development processes. The types of tools used typically include Computer-Aided Design (CAD), Computer-Aided Engineering (CAE), Math tools, proprietary in-house codes and Cost Estimation tools.

While IPTs enable efficient communication among engineering disciplines, more often than not, their applications do not directly communicate with one another; especially cost estimation models. This poses a major challenge.


Thus, this presentation focuses on the use of a software framework, iSIGHT-FD, which enables quick and easy integration of disparate applications into simulation workflows. Once applications are integrated into "SimFlows', IPTs can share data rapidly, seamlessly and automatically. Further, companies can run sophisticated design exploration techniques such as Optimization, Design of Experiments (DOE), Monte Carlo Analysis, Robust Design, and Design for Six Sigma (DFSS); ensuring that the best design is achieved at the most affordable cost.


If required, SimFlow models can be accessed, and executed by geographically dispersed work groups, suppliers, and customers via a web portal interface. Typical benefits include improved collaboration, reduced analysis cycle time, improved product quality and reliability, lower product cost and breakthrough innovative design concepts.

A Requirements Based Cost Model



Lee Fischman - Senior Director of Development, Galorath Incorporated

Galorath is developing an expert system capable of translating just a few high level requirements into a detailed hardware estimate within SEER for Hardware.  Using case based reasoning techniques to match requirements against previous cases, the system produces a SEER for Hardware project which can then be further refined.  This system provides a means of rapidly building up new estimates, of evaluating concepts at an early stage, of improving the consistency of estimates, and more.  A prototype has already proven effective in field use.

SEER Integration Tools & Techniques



Dr. Christopher Rush - Senior Systems Engineer, Galorath Incorporated

This presentation focuses on the various methods available for integrating SEER tools with Enterprise applications. Firstly, an overview of COM linking, ODBC, and Custom Calculations is provided, followed by an introduction to using Server Mode. Lastly, live demonstrations of SEER integrated with ERP data, the Pro/E CAD model, iSight-FD, SEER Rate Calculator and Crystal Ball risk analysis tool are provided. The goal is to empower SEER users with the information required to either embark on their own integration efforts, or take the next step to higher level integration of SEER tools.

Smart Sourcing in the Global Environment



Joe Falque - Product Director, Galorath Incorporated

This presentation discusses how process-based parametric cost models, SEER-HW and SEER-MFG, are used to facilitate proactive real time cost impact assessments of commodity design alternatives in today's global sourcing environment. The main purpose is to show how model use in the sourcing process can produce a significant financial benefit to any organization that employs the use of the SEER-HW and SEER-MFG modeling process. It will also introduce the models flexibility in the development of trade study "should be costing" estimates, using a ‘real world' case study.

Cost Estimation as a Function of Project Management for the International Space Station Project



Krista Stroh - Associate, Booz Allen Hamilton

Over the past few years as budgets have become tighter, NASA has been trying to do more science and more exploration with less resources.  As a result, the International Space Station Program employs cost estimation as a function of project management in order to make better decisions.  The cost estimators, through the use of parametric tools such as SEER-H, have been able to execute effective project controls for various customers, including the program manager, project engineers, and the procurement office.  This presentation will exhibit how the tools are being used effectively and some of the tactical approaches taken in using the parametrics.

Parametric Cost Analysis for Evolving Technologies



Evin Stump - Senior Consultant, Galorath Incorporated

Commercial and in-house parametric cost models are widely used in the aerospace industry to predict development and production costs of high value systems that fly in the atmosphere or beyond. Parametric models are widely believed to provide the most accurate cost forecasts in the early stages of projects when much about the project is still undefined or vague. Because this is precisely the stage at which the most significant cost driving decisions about the project tend to be made, parametrically estimated costs can play a crucial role in project success.


When dealing with evolving technologies, expert judgment inevitably becomes a necessary adjunct to limited "hard" data.  This paper describes a process developed by Galorath Incorporated to mold sparse data and expert judgment into a useful parametric cost model. 

Producing Detailed Software Estimates Does Not Have To Be Difficult



Bob Boylan - Software Manager, Northrop Grumman

Creating software estimates with SEER for Software (SEER-SW) allows for fine control over detailed software estimates. Managing this fine level of detail is a challenge.  The SEER Automator tool was built to address that challenge. SEER Automator works alongside SEER-SW and provides functionality that SEER for Software doesn't currently contain.  It allows you, the estimator, to make large sweeping changes quickly and easily. The intent behind SEER Automator is to spend more quality time in SEER-SW performing estimation tasks by leveraging its simple yet powerful automation capabilities.

Estimating Software Enhancement Projects



Ian Brown - Senior Associate, Booz Allen Hamilton

Estimation for software enhancements can be particulary difficult because of all the questions that should be answered:

This presentation tackles the challenge of estimating effort, cost, and schedule for software enhancement projects. It presents a methodology that leverages SEER-SEM's Acquisition Method knowledge base and function point analysis. This methodology provides a structured, documentable, repeatable approach that can be used in an enhancement scenario and can be improved over time with adjustments and calibration.

The Business Value of IT

Michael Harris - President, David Consulting Group

This presentation seeks to highlight the role that good estimation has to play in the delivery of value from IT to the business.  Too often, IT projects and operations fail because business expectations are unrealistically high in terms of what can be achieved in a given time at a given quality and budget. And too often, IT providers have unreasonably low expectations regarding the same. What is lacking on both sides is knowledge of what can be realistically achieved by combining a clearly prioritized set of business needs with well-established IT industry best practices. This presentation identifies six key areas for business value from IT and explains how SEER for Software and SEER for IT play a role in all of these areas.

A Public Benchmark Repository - The Added Value of the ISBSG



Ton Dekkers - Director of Consulting, Galorath International

IT becomes more and more an integral part of the business processes. Software Benchmarking has proven to be useful in making estimating processes more professional in software development.

In 2007 the International Software Benchmarking Standards Group (ISBSG) published the 10th edition of the new development repository with project information of over 4000 IT projects.

ISBSG is a not-for-profit organization. Briefly the mission, the structure and the positioning of the ISBSG will be explained.

More detail will be given on the process of collecting the data, the validation and verification process, the date in itself and the publication of the data. The reality checker (part of the ISBSG repository) is used to demonstrate the added value.

SEER for Software and CMMI Equal High Maturity Software Cost Estimation



Dr. Richard Welch - Technical Fellow, Northrop Grumman Integrated Systems

Well-publicized industry data paint a dismal picture about the practice of software cost estimation and the accuracy of software cost estimates. Published statistics and post mortems typically point to poor initial cost estimation as a principle contributor to program risk, leading to cost and schedule overruns during project execution. Government cost evaluators are tasked to scrutinize cost proposals heavily and to suspect overly optimistic and poorly justified contractor claims.

The Northrop Grumman Integrated Systems facility in Melbourne, Florida, is a prime contractor for large software-intensive systems. We have a 15+ year track record of accurate software bids and successful project execution that have resulted in median cost under runs of 2%. How do we do it?

We have strongly embraced the concept of parametric cost estimation using SEER-SEM, and embedded its practice in the context of highly mature (CMMI Level 5) management and engineering processes. We use SEER-SEM to generate line-of-code-driven estimates that satisfy key Government risk items and demonstrate program executability.

CMMI goals and practices shape certain estimating behaviors, resulting in an integrated set of high maturity practices that have been incorporated into our software estimation process. This strategy incorporates lessons learned from successful large system proposal efforts and multiple non-advocate reviews and independent cost evaluations.