Coffee Maker Cost Estimation Using SEER for Manufacturing
The department of Industrial Management & Systems Engineering at West Virginia University user SEER for Manufacturing (formerly SEER-DFM) SEER-MFG to determine the costs of an off the shelf coffee maker and identified potential cost savings by redesigning for manufacturability. This is one of the strengths of SEER-MFG: the ability to understand costs of a design and determine ways to reduce cost. One group was able to reduce costs from $21.25 to $11.53. They found that:
“SEER is an estimation and analysis application that lets you identify, evaluate and manage the complex array of cost, labor, assembly, process, part design, material and production variables that effect manufacturing operations from its most comprehensive knowledge base” and that “it is used to facilitate proactive real time cost impact assessments of commodity design alternatives in today’s global sourcing environment.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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What You Don’t Measure Can Hurt You
Following up on a new year’s resolution I brought a scanner into my office. I was determined to scan what was necessary and throw away what was not. Based on the findings at the bottom of my in basket, I generally went electronic sometime in 2003.
As I was throwing away old copies of IEEE Software I noticed an article entitled “What You Don’t Measure Can Hurt You.” With such a title and since I have had it in my in box since 2003 I just had to take a break and read it. Its points are as valid today as they were in 2003:
“In 1924, Walter Shewhart adapted statistical methods to the problem of quality control in the manufacturing sector. In manufacturing the observed and actual number of defects is not significantly different. In software development these two numbers routinely vary significantly. Contributing causes for extreme variation in software measurement include the following:
- People are the software development process
- Software measurement might introduce more variation than the process
- Size metrics do not count discrete, identical units.
- SPC must be adapted to software to provide a tool that isolates variation requiring corrective action from variation that is unavoidable and random
One of the paper’s great examples is: if we assign a smaller team to inspection may find fewer defects. That doesn’t equate to higher quality software. So measure both and be careful to not draw erroneous conclusions.
Thankfully IEEE Software is available electronically. Here is the article “What You Don’t Measure Can Hurt You”
PS: I found a candy bar in there too. Scary.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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DoD Contractor Estimating Systems Deficiencies Can Withhold 10%
A draft rule for business systems has been posted by the Government allowing the withholding of 10% of payments for each of six systems, with a maximum of 50% withholdings. These systems include contractor business systems including 1) estimating, 2) purchasing, 3) accounting, 4) earned value, 5) property and 6) material management.
In 2009 the congressionally chartered Commission on Wartime Contracting stated in its June 2009 interim report to Congress, that:
“Weak control systems increase the risk of unallowable and unreasonable costs on government contracts”
Comments will be accepted until March 16, 2010. Email to dfars@osd.mil with subject DFARS Case 2009-D038.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Heavy Rains Knock Out Power at El Segundo Headquarters
The major storms knocked power out in the entire building (supposed to be the best class A building in El Segundo.) Power transmission equipment was damaged. It has been out since about 11am pacific on Wednesday. Authorities are hoping to have power restored by mid day Thursday.
UPDATE: Power restored late THursday evening.
I was in the gym when I heard the explosion and smelled electrical burning. So much for the building backup generators and our server battery backups.
Phoenix, Washington DC, Florida, North Carolina, UK, Netherlands numbers are all working with people standing by to help.
Backup Technical Support Line: (213) 973-3787
We are hoping to have the phones forwarded early Thursday morning.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Estimating FPGAs
Integrated Circuit estimationis always interesting since traditional metrics for estimating hardware don’t apply. That is why we developed the SEER-IC plug-in for our SEER for Hardware, Electronics Systems. Here is a document on estimating FPGAs that Sam Sanchez is presenting this week.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Software Product Engineering Benchmark By Aberdeen
According to Aberdeen research study Software Project Engineering Outsourcing.. the value of Agile in outsourcing
- Reduce Development Cost 57%
- Lack of In-House Resources 50%
- Allow internal staff to focus on innovation 30%
- Improve time to market 25%
Benchmarking
| Productivity Scorecard Comparison | |||
| Best (Top 20%) | Average (Middle 50%) | Bottom 30%) | |
| Project cost | -17% | 3% | 22% |
| Time TO Market | -10% | 2% | 28 |
| User Satisfaction | 18% | 4% | -4% |
ITIL Usage
Even best in class organizations onl 22% se ITIL with virtually no adoption by the average or laggards
Agile Development
Agile developers are more likely to use project management tools, code development and testing technologies, real-time progress tracking and other tools.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Economics For Product Development Decisions… My First Inkling
I had to smile when I was clearing out old documents and found my rationale for reimbursement of my tuition for MBA courses in micro and macroeconomics. Talk about being a SEER of the future. This is April 6, 1978, before I started Galorath. Why do I include this…. the statements were right on… better decisions, improved communications, more successful development with SEER.
The classes I am required to take during this quarter and Macro and Micro Economics. In addition to enhancing my effectiveness in my current job function via broader prospective of business, the application of the concepts of economic analysis will help me make better decisions, communicate data in a more clear, concise format, and more effectively analyse product development considerations (for example: additional development time to produce a superior product versus earlier delivery of an adequate product)
PS: This was sometime after my project was killed because I would not cut the cost and schedule by a third from my original estimate.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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SEER-H Expanded Technology Support for Electro Optical Sensors
The latest SEER-H update also included major enhancements to the SEER-EOS electro optical sensor model.Â
SEER-EOS adds specific features to extend the capability of SEER-H to estimate the life-cycle costs of electro-optical sensors. SEER-EOS estimates are derived from key technical and performance parameters.
The original EOS model release handled space based systems. While the space community was thrilled, organizations with other requirements grumbled.  Well, the wait is over. The Electro-Optical Sensor (EOS) update offers estimation of sensors on space based, air vehicles, missile, and other complex platforms.
In addition to an overall database update, several new technologies have been added, including a new technology category for Laser sensors which includes Laser Diode and Diode Pumpted NdYAG Lasers. New and revised optical devices include Refractive Telescopes (both Visible and IR), Reflective Telescopes and Reflective Telescopes with Scanning Mirror. New detector technologies include Linear InGaAs, Area InGaAs, Area Bicolor HgCtTe and Area Microbolotomers. There is a new One-Axis Piezoelectric Actuator mechanism and a new Joule-Thompson with Pressure Vessel cooler.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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SEER-IC Add-on To SEER-H Gets The Newest Technologies
Galorath has just released a major update to SEER for Hardware, Electronics & Systems. Major enhancements encompass several areas. I am always fascinated by the SEER-IC plug-in that models custom chips (which can be major cost drivers of systems,) as especially the positive feedback we get from organizations building complicated electronic systems.
SEER-IC adds specific features to extend the capability of SEER-H to estimate the development and recurring costs for custom ICs, ASICs and FPGAs. This add-in is tightly integrated with SEER H to facilitate a more effective cost analysis of the circuit card and its critical components.
The Integrated Circuits (IC) option for SEER-H now offers estimation of Mixed Signal and MMIC technologies. This new capability extends SEER IC to cover components designed for RF applications in addition recurring and non-recurring costs of developing a Standard Cell ASIC and FPGA.
Congratulations to the development team and user organizations who assisted with this update.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Estimating the Costs and Benefits of Software Process Improvement
I recall, some years ago, participating on a source selection for an improved software development environment. My part was essentially to assess the costs (personnel, time, etc.) and the benefits (increases in productivity when the new software development was deployed.
Interesting work and right up SEER’s alley. I looked at improved development tools and development practices and cost reduction versus the costs and temporary reduced productivity.
Watts Humphrey of SEI published a document on costs and benefits of software process improvement that is worth review.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.