Estimating Web Effort / Schedule
Reading an article for IEEE on Web effort estimation reminded me of how SEER estimates web page development projects using either traditional line of code inputs, functional inputs, or web pages. Of course any implementation methods can be handled, anything from HTML to java to C# to a content management system.
Of course reuse, security and other people, process and technology items are factored into the estimate.
Some people don’t believe it is necessary to estimate web developments. I shutter to think that all this effort is expended without an estimate or plan.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Make or Break: Why Accurate Cost Estimation Is Key
A recent articlefrom executivebrief.com sent to me By Dr. Ricardo Valerdi of MIT discusses how the accuracy of the cost estimation process can make or break a project’s success.
“When it comes to controlling costs, it is a critical first step to make appropriate estimations at the outset of a project. Being able to control costs is largely a matter of adhering to established guidelines, oftentimes by learning from previous projects and reacting to current circumstances efficiently and effectively.”
It is amazing to me how simple this concept is, yet how many CEO’s don’t even know it is possible. Accurate estimates (of course with risk and uncertainty factored in) yield viable project plans which can then be successfully monitored and controlled. In fact the application of techniques such as earned value management, as powerful as they are, crumble when the baseline plan is unachievable.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
The Danger of “Don’t Bring Me Problems, Bring Me Solutions”
I recall working for a manager who always said “don’t bring me problems, bring me solutions. I think his intent was to stop whining and get people working on problem solving before bringing the problem up. But I always thought it was counterproductive….. If I had a problem I might or I might not have a solution.. And I might need collaboration or leadership to obtain one. This Harvard Business Review article substantiated my long time concern over that management style.
“Instead of promoting accountability, it actually encourages employees to turn a blind eye to problems they see but cannot figure out how to fix. When you say “Don’t bring me problems—bring me solutions,” what you’re saying, in effect, is “Of all the problems you find, I only want to know about the ones you can solve.”
Identifying problems can be a solo sport, but finding solutions rarely is. This is especially true when the problems have any degree of complexity. If you’re giving people permission to tell you about just those problems they can solve, you’re missing out on many opportunities for improvement. You’re leaving performance boosters on the table simply because the problem and the solution aren’t collocated.”
Thank you HBR.
Of course in project estimation, planning and control part of the art is to identify both problems and solutions while bounding risk and uncertainty. That is part of the goal of the 10 step process.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
SEER for Hardware, Electronics & Systems Can Control Cost Risk of ASICs
I have been pleased with the performance of the detailed IC estimation option in SEER for Hardware Electronics and Systems. Further I am excited that we have a customer providing a webinar in how to apply SEER-IC to costly military communications systems.
Today’s military communication systems are playing an ever expanding critical role in our domestic security as well as the security of our assets abroad. Satellites that are the core of these communication systems are being required to do more complex functions and perform them faster than ever before. To accomplish complex on-orbit tasks, modern space electronics are using advanced micro-electronics in their unit designs. The rapidly changing field of advanced micro-electronics, largely developed by commercial industry, presents a problem for the cost estimator. Common cost estimating techniques using historical data or cost estimating relationships based on historical data are not well suited to address the complexity of today’s electronic devices. . SEER for Hardware-Integrated Circuits Option parametric cost estimating model is being used to develop a cost estimate for ASICs, and what future estimating challenges may be on military space communication satellites.
If you are interested the webinar registration is here.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Typical Percentage Breakdown of Offshore Cost
Estimating offshoring is always interesting, especially when we have seen the the stronger dollar buy about 26% more in Indian currency over the past few months. But what do we get for the dollar. Offshoring is an important source of IT talent for the US.
I thought Don O’Neill‘s breakdown of the cost of offshoring was interesting since is showed a similar distribution of costs from offshoring and organic development.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Software Estimation Much More Complicated Than Some Perceive
How many times have we been asked to submit a 5 minute or off the cuff estimate to stakeholders… Then be held to that estimate even though we missed the complexity in our haste.. Of course if we didn’t prepare an estimate until everything was known the estimate would be of little value. That is why uncertainty must be part of the process and off the cuff, manual estimations should be avoided when possible.
I thought these diagrams showing the perceived simplicity of the software estimation process versus complexities in the software cost estimation process were very interesting.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Automated Versus Manual Estimating
Having been in the industry for decades I have seen a lot of projects get into trouble with inadequate estimating. Watching the estimation methodologies (or lack therein) I have seen a variety of techniques. Over the years, analyzing these I have made several observations:
Developers are not too bad at estimating what it will take to make the software do what it should (the go path)… They are not so good at estimating what it will take to make the software not do what it shouldn’t.
- Manual estimates can very greatly even from the same person, depending on their current frame of mind.
- People have poor memories as to what it really takes to build and deliver acceptable software.
- Estimating effort directly (e.g. that take should take 3 months) rarely produces an optimized plan.. And without repeatability no one can figure what went wrong.
- Manual estimates at the lowest (1-2 week) level can actually make projects take longer since tendencies are to estimate those tasks at a higher probability and use all the time, even when things go well.
- Parametric estimating provides a language, methodology, and repeatability to the process.
- When people don’t want to take the time to estimate their project is already in trouble.
- Agile projects don’t eliminate the need to estimate. Stakeholders are not comfortable with “we will be done when we are done” answers.
The folllowing table summarizes some of the estimating methods:
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Real Time IT Budgets Versus Annual Budgets
Interesting article on Eweek. “That elusive IT budget is more elusive than ever. It looks to me like the idea of the yearly budget is totally trashed in favor of a real time budget, updated all the time and as fluid as the economic news of the day. That may not be the best way to get projects moving and completed on time, but it is the current reality.”
All the more reason to understand the realities of projects and the cost / benefits of starts and stops with SEER.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Estimating Weight Impact of Thanksgiving Dinner
This is in a bit of a different vein than most of what is written in estimating here but it may be (and should be) on people’s minds in the US and other countries where thanksgiving is celebrated next week.
Looking at calories (which after all is the most correct measure of weight gain / loss):
The average 200 pound man burns about 2000 calories per day just living
A typical thanksgiving is at least 3500 calories to 5,000+ calories
The after dinner half hour stroll (1 – 2 miles per hour) for that 200 pound man can burn about 115 calories
Then, because of the walk, one might consume a leftover turkey sandwich about 500 calories
A pound of fat takes about 3500 calories…
Bottom line… You can gain over a pound of fat without thinking on just Thanksgiving Day.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
5 top IT Spending Priorities In Tough Times
Infoworld identified the 5 top spending priorities in tough times.
1. Storage: Disks and management software
2. Business intelligence: Niche analytics
3. Virtualization: Optimizing resources
4. Security: Data and end points
5. Cloud computing: Business solutions
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Project Prediction Infographic
