Dealng With IT Challenges With Estimating
Galorath’s Karen McRitchie, VP of Product Development,  did a webinar this morning on IT estimating. She pointed out that three of the primary CIO goals are:
- Improve Business Processes
- Deliver Better Customer Services
- Cut Costs
She pointed out the challenges of IT estimation… software, servers, processes, service management, legislation, technology, business issues.
She discussed how in most organizations IT estimation is not a repeatable process and that estimates even within an organization are often not comparable.
She pointed out the issues of expert judgement subjectiveness, difficulties using spreadsheets and issues of bottoms up missing items and actually estimating hours and costs.
She referred to the ability to capture “tribal knowledge” so it is not lost when situations change.
She then showed how SEER for IT (SEER-IT) solves IT estimation challenges…
- Accurate Estimates
- Knowledge bases WBSs and scenarios (patterns) capturing tribal knowledge
- Parametric estimating providing effort, schedule, cost and risk
- Repeatability
- Avoidance of surprises
And Some Questions Answered
Are we building the right projects?Â
Are we building the projects right?
 Is this project worth the cost / schedule?
 What are the opportunity costs of this project?… Are there other projects that would provide more business value?
 How can we avoid surprises? … projects with serious overruns or reduced functionality?
 Are we getting a fair deal from vendors or outsource partners?
How can IT provide the most business value to the organization?
Is a proposed system / architecture viable?
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Clean Energy Analysis Software
The RETScreen Clean Energy Project Analysis Software (from Natural Resources Canada) is a unique decision support tool developed with the contribution of numerous experts from government, industry, and academia. The software, provided free-of-charge, can be used worldwide to evaluate the energy production and savings, costs, emission reductions, financial viability and risk for various types of Renewable-energy and Energy-efficient Technologies (RETs). The software (available in multiple languages) also includes product, project, hydrology and climate databases, a detailed user manual, and a case study based college/university-level training course, including an engineering e-textbook.”
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Software Estimation and Project Management – A Tale of Two Mirrors
One of the desired end results of any project is producing a seamless product. Said project could be a company manual, a piece of software, or an automobile, in the end the product should be perceived a single, cohesive entity. The entirety of your project should feel as if it were birthed whole and flawless, crafted with one brush in a single masterstroke.
Reality, however, has you painting a much different picture. Large projects take large groups of people. Large groups of people are broken down into several smaller teams. Even teams themselves can be further divided. Responsibilities trickle down through the ranks and deadlines are attached. Pieces of the project start to rely on each other as deadlines overlap and dependencies are built. A holdup in one team can literally delay an entire project. The larger the project, the more your single masterstroke starts to look a lot more like Chaos.
In an attempt to make things easier, many project managers turn towards some sort of project management software. The logic is fairly simple – obtain a single piece of software which can keep track of all the pieces of a project simultaneously. The ideal piece of software is busy monitoring deadlines and progress while doling out further responsibilities, all the while ensuring the desired end result.
Active Versus Passive Project Management
Problems arise when we think that all project management systems are created equal. The fact is that software systems can be broken down into two primary categories – passive and active. Passive systems reflect exactly what you put into them, in essence telling you what you already know, albeit in an organized and open manner. Active project management systems, often called estimation software, are able to make projections based on various algorithms and complex models. The difference between the two can be rather severe. If passive project management software reflects what you know, like a mirror, than active project management software reflects what you want to know, like a magic mirror.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Estimating The Weight Increase of Americans
A recent study determined that overeating is the primary cause of increasing obesity in the US. Researchers computed how many calories Americans ate in the ’70s
“weight gain in the American population seems to be virtually all due to the consumption of more calories, with declines in physical activity playing only a minor role” Professor B. Swinburn
The study calculated calories required to maintain stable weight and how much children needed to grow properly.
They used national food supply data from the 1970s and the early 2000s to estimate expected weight gain over the 30 years, assuming food was the only factor, and compared that to the actual weight gains from surveys of Americans’ weights.
In children the predicted weight gain matched exactly.
In adults they predicted 23.8 pound increases and found adults are actually 18.9 pounds heavier.
Their conclusions were that children need to reduce calories by about 350 per day and adults by about 500 per day.
This does not mean quit exercising. It does mean eat less.
Having studied weight, nutrition and exercise for some years, a number of other issues come to mind:
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Real Quality Assurance By Tom Gilb
Tom is a real software visionary.. .Actually, Tom is the person I credit with coining the term “software metrics” many years ago… and a delightful guy.Â
He released his draft of his “Real QA” Manifesto. He points out that Quality Assurance has degenerated into just testing and points out that real QA can save considerably… Real QA involves quality management, helping engineer quality into the system.
His “no surprises assurance” objective is extremely exciting:
“Â To allow management to understand release consequences fully, in relation to expectations, with the lowest costs, the lowest risks, and the lowest degree of surprises.”
Â
You can find his Real QA manifesto here.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Cloud Computing Can Save Time and Money: MIT CIO Panel Conclusion
MIT Sloan’s CIO Panel identified cloud computing as a near term opportunity to reduce costs and provide flexible scaling. Cloud computing treats computing resources as a utility rather than a physical asset. Like electricity, with cloud computing you can obtain more when you need it.
“The benefits of cloud computing start and end with the dollars you can save.”
When costing, cloud computing resources need to be sized in a more flexible way. It isn’t how many servers… it is how much memory and how much storage and how much bandwidth
One of the hindrances is the myriad of terms used to define cloud computing.
It is so confusing, I have seen people using software as a service as a synonym for cloud computing. While SAAS may use the cloud, it is not necessarily the cloud. And a cloud can be used without a vendor software application… as a way to obtain computing horsepower when needed.
See network computing world for more details.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Joint Confidence Level Solution By Galorath
Congratulations to Galorath’s Chris Hutchings and Denton Tarbet and MCR’s Steve Book for their approach to NASA’s joint probability challenge. Chris worked all weekend and had it nailed by Monday. Then he saw the papers from the prior week’s NASA 2009 cost symposium on Monday. Steve Book had independently come up with the same approach.
So while perhaps Denton and Chris can’t claim to be first to publish it, they can claim to be creators of what appears to be one of the winning approaches to joint confidence level.
Hats off to all three, and to the others who presented approaches to joint probability at the NASA Cost Symposium.  There were a number of other excellent solutions presented at the NASA symposium.Â
And other risk gurus at Galorath and elsewhere are studying even more effective solutions.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Galorath Vision of Parametrics Over The Next 20 Years (Published 2004)
We have seen great strides in the acceptance of parametric modeling such as SEER over the past 5 years. I published the following vision in a keynote address, originally in 2004. And much of this has come to pass by 2009. It has been a privilege to work with a myriad of organizations in seeing SEER parametrics become part of their standard processes and saving significant costs.   Drop me an email if you would like details of how this has progressed.
- Parametrics integrated into engineering processes and engineering decision making
- e.g. Cost derived from simulation models of that system
- Parametrics used throughout Industry & Government
- Parametrics will lose its “magic” reputation
- Improved processes will yield better data
- Augmentation of parametrics with more viewable data will increase believability among engineers and management
- The nay-sayers who say they can make parametric models say anything they want will be replaced with belief
- More dynamic parametrics based on both historical and real time data
- Parametric models will be available to use as “objects” in financial and engineering analysis
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Estimation Plus Process and Measurement Rigor Yields More Successful Projects: SEER and Tracer
It has been rewarding working with the Computer Aid  (CAI) people, the people who sponsor the ITMPI in tying together best practice approaches (SEER for Estimating, Planning and Control and Computer Aid’s Tracer for metrics, reporting and root level management). I am always inspired when I hear the CAI people explain their process and success in fixed price software development and maintenance. They do it by a number of methods and processes. But the one that always makes me the most excited is their Tracer software. Tracer allows root level tracking of tasks and progress, providing near real time feedback regarding project health and status and individual task performance. I think it is wonderful that they have made their solution available to the industry at large.  It is much like the factory floor real time feedback in manufacturing, applied to software. From CAI’s web site is the following description which describes estimating effort, cost, and process tracking.:
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Estimating Opportunity Costs
When estimating ROI on a business case, one item that is often forgotten is the opportunity cost. What else could be done with the resources if this project wasn’t done: the cost (sacrifice) incurred by choosing one alternative over another.
What could those resources do to improve the corporation?
What if those resources were not deployed at all but cost savings increased corporate profit?
Which project might produce more value to the corporation than this one?
One good question to ask is What would happen if we did nothing?
Another is: Even if we can afford this project and obtain the business value, do we need that business value?
I am excited to see SEER’s Estimate by Comparison function provide estimates of value, opportunitycosts, and other considerations. This can certainly help. But the most important part of this is to get management and people doing the analysis to think of this question.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.