DoD CIO Approves Open Source Software.. But Beware of Low Cost Assumptions
The DoD CIO’s office clarified its position on open soure software in a DoD open source  memorandum issued by David M. Wennergren, deputy CIO for the DoD on October 16, 2009.
The memo states “positive aspects of OSS [open source software]” should be considered when evaluating its DoD use including auditable code, ability to modify, less reliance on a particular vendor, and no licensing costs.
While This Is Good It Does Not Necessarily  Mean Low Costs
While the lack of licensing licensing costs are certainly a benefit and there can be some cost savings , once the open source software is modified for DoD usage it is no longer in the public domain. That means a contractor or another developer will need to take ownership. The software will need to be reverse engineered, verified for security issues, probably more thoroughly tested under a controlled environment and other significant costs. Appropriate design documentation and other documents will need to be built in many cases, of course test cases will need to be built. Bottom line: The development and maintenance cost of government modified open source software could be expensive: perhaps cheaper than new but expensive none the less.. And when something goes wrong the contractor will expect to be paid to debug / fix the modified open source. A quick run through rework guidance from Galorath shows up to:
- Up to 80% of the design of new software for modified open source
- Up To 64% of the testing of new software fr modified open source
- The percentages don’t include new functionality, just getting the open source into shape for mission critical applications
- Could be better or worse depending on the amount of modification and the critically of the application.
This means that it could be around 54% of developing new just to be able to use the software, not counting the customization itself.
PS: It is not clear to me that the assertion by the CIO will be relevant for weapons systems, etc.
The formula and assumptions follow:
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Tongue In Cheek Definition of Cost Analysis
From an Aerospace Corporation course:
“The art of estimating the cost of acquisitions. It involves using incomplete, inaccurate, and changing data for an outmoded and ineffective system to derive a precise cost of purchasing an unknown quantity of an undefined new system to satisfy an overly exaggrated & unvalidated requirement at some time in the future with a minimum of funds”
Ouch. Sometimes this is the job.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Cost-estimating Software for your business
For a few years, CBS has been running a television show called Numb3rs. The premise is the standard take off on the brothers-solving-mysteries cliché that has been around since at least the Hardy Boys. Of course, Numbers has some thngs that are different – the boys are employed and older. Don Eppes, the older of the pair, runs a team of FBI agents based in Los Angeles – a fair step above the amateur sleuthing of the Hardy boys. Charlie Eppes, the younger brother, is a math genius and a professor at the fictional “Cal Sciâ€.
Each week, Don and his street-savvy FBI team encounter a problem, usually a time sensitive one, which is just too tough to figure out through traditional police work. Set your watch by it; Professor Charlie Eppes and his team of nerdy yet smart mathematicians are able to use some form of advanced mathematics to accomplish a some inventive tasks from deciphering where a kidnapping will happen to the contents of boxes.
And while a great deal of that is Hollywood magic, taking lab theory and shoehorning it into unrealistic time periods with even less realistic amounts of data, there is one part of the show that I always admire. During the hour-long show, the young Professor Eppes must give an explanation to a complex, doctoral-level mathematical system in a way that a team of federal agents can understand. This happens every single episode with such predictability that the character in the show have started to expect it, even making jokes and attempting to give their own explanations.
 Charlie’s explanations are clearly a plot device to convince the audience that his brilliant mathematical insights aren’t simply a weekly deus ex machine. However, just as Charlie has to explain how his math models the real world, the use of software estimation can often seem just as improbable. True, you can sit back and say “Well, the program relies on parametric modeling of our current situation,†but that look is far more likely to generate blank stares than anything else.
Article provided by Galorath, Cost Estimating Software.
Note Galorath put this article out several months ago but it didnt end up on the blog until now.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Estimate Review Checklists
I was asked today for a SEER-SEM 10 Step estimate review checklist. Of course there are checklists in my book:
105 – 107; Step Seven: Estimate Validation and Review
108 – 109; Estimate Review Activities
117 – 128; Estimate Process Questionnaire
432 – 434; SEER-SEM Estimation Process Step 7: Review, Verify and Validate Estimate
And a blog that includes some of the checklists
There are also a number of other useful checklists:
- Bob Park, while with the SEI, developed this checklist. It remains useful even today.
- Galorath has an estimate assessment document based on a prerelease of the 10 Step book.
- Galorath has an additional document available to SEER users upon request.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Estimating the Effort, Cost & Schedule of Net Centric Systems
I just got a peek at a draft briefing for this week’s SEER seminar in El Segundo encompassing using SEER-IT for hardware oriented systems such as Net Centric systems. The bottom line is SEER provides full estimating capabilities for such systems.Â
I recommend users attend this free seminar in El Segundo this Thursday, October 7, 2009 to hear other users success stories and lessons learned as well as tips from the SEER developers.
Also, I reviewed some of the presentations from the Estimating United Conference at Manchester United Stadium today. There is much excellent content in their as well.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.