Applying Earned Value Management to Software Intensive Programs Part 4

April 19, 2009 · Filed Under earned value  - 0 Comment(s)

For paper with figures see Applying Earned Value Management To Software Intensive Programs Final   This article was originally published in the Software Tech News, Volume 12, No. 1, April 2009.  The web site for more information about this publication is www.softwaretechnews.com  This paper illustrates how to achieve more successful projects with estimation, planning and control.  Cost estimating as well as effort, schedule, and risk are included with illustrations from SEER for Software (SEER-SEM)

Using an analytic process to project cost and schedule based on actual performance

 

Once the requirement definition is complete; the cost and schedule baseline has been established; the appropriate metrics have been selected; and a PBEV system is in place, the final challenge is to implement a process that quickly and accurately estimates final cost and schedule based on actual performance.  This analysis is best accomplished using an analytic/parametric process.  Galorath Incorporated calls this process SEER Control (formerly Parametric Project Management and Control.  The purpose of SEER Control is to provide an understanding of the project’s progress so that appropriate corrective actions can be taken when the project’s performance deviates significantly from the plan.  SEER Control applies a four-dimensional (4-D) approach for assigning progress to the development of each program/application that is part of the project. The first dimension is Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC) primary activity completion for the development of a specific program/application.  Each SDLC primary activity, in turn, is assigned progress according to a weighted combination of three other dimensions: artifact completion, milestone completion, and defect discovery/removal.   SEER Control provides an “at-a-glance” indication of project status.  This concept is presented in Figure 5, Understanding and Tracking Defects and Other Metrics.  This analytic process uses actual performance to re-estimate the anticipated cost and schedule.  The “dashboard” at the bottom of Figure 5, presents a health and status indicator for the project.  In Figure 5, five metrics are tracked, schedule variance, time variance, cost variance, size growth, and defects discovery and removal.  SEER Control allows you to track size growth and actual defect metrics. Size growth can indicate growth in requirements and can be an indicator of why a project may be off track. The profile of defects reported and removed is compared against the estimated time phased defects.

 

In Defects Tracking, the analyst will see the estimated defects reported and actual defects reported.  When reported defects are lagging the estimated defects, that could indicate that not enough testing is being performed, especially if the actual defects removed are tracking with the estimated defects removed.  Conversely, if the actual defects removed lag the estimated, but defects reported tracks with the estimated, then you may not have enough programming resources to make fixes.  If actual defects reported and removed follow the general profile of the estimated, but are higher or lower, then the baseline project estimate may be over or underestimated.   SEER Control also tracks the Time Variance (TV). The TV is the cumulative difference in schedule months between earned value and the baseline plan up to the date of the latest snapshot. When a rollup element is selected, the time variance is equal to the worst time variance of its subordinate programs. Positive values are favorable, negative values are unfavorable.  SEER Control also tracks the Time Performance Index (TPI).  The TPI is the time efficiency achieved from the beginning of development to the date of the latest snapshot. A performance index greater than one is favorable. A performance index less than one is unfavorable. The Time Performance Index (TPI) is the ratio of the elapsed time from the Actual Start Date to the baseline planned date and the elapsed time from the Actual Start Date to the snapshot date.

 

 

Other metrics can be tracked.  In addition to the health and status indicator using the red, yellow, green indicators, this automated application re-baselines the program estimate to present a revised cost and schedule prediction.

 

 

 

Figure 5, Understanding and Tracking Defects and Other Metrics

 

At the heart of the PPMC vision is the desire to forecast the final project outcome based on performance to date.  One of the primary goals of PPMC is to provide adequate supporting documentation (charts and reports) to support the software project management process and to satisfy stakeholder needs.

 

Conclusion

 

Using earned value to plan and manage software intensive projects can prevent expensive failures.  Earned value should be based on the foundation of establishing the requirements, developing a reliable baseline estimate for cost and schedule, selecting effective software metrics, applying Performance-Based Earned Value (PBEV), and using analytic processes to project cost and schedule based on actual performance.


Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.

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