Controlling Software Projects: Development Is Only Job One: Chicago SPIN Nov 12 2009
Dan will be speaking at the Chi10 stecago SPIN on November 12, 2009 on the topic of controlling software projects. Estimation, planning, control, metrics, and maintenance fo a total ownership cost view wil be discussed.
The presentation is here: Chicago SPIN November 2009 Galorath Presentation Controlling Software Projects Development Is Only Job 1
PS Dan looks forward to his short visit to Chicago, his home town. And is going to carefully avoid pizza, hot dogs, and Italian beef while he is there.
The flyer follows:
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Improving Earned Value With Statistics
I attended a very interesting session presented by Eric Druker and Dan Demangos of Booz Allen Hamilton and Richard Coleman of Northrop Grumman Information Systems, at the Department of the Navy Cost Analysis Symposium (DONCAS) last week covering improving Earned Value (EVM) analysis with statistics. The speakers covered many of the common points regarding EVM weaknesses and showed some work they had done in helping solve some of these issues.
I found it interesting that SEER-SEM’s Parametric Progress analysis solves the same problems by looking at EVM type data and parametrics in concert.
The Problem Statement from the briefing included:
- Currently, the traditional Earned Value Management calculations suffer from several shortcomings that lessen their viability as a cost estimating tool
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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The Sooner You Fall Behind, The More Time You Have To Catch Up
I received an email from the Josephson Institute of Ethics today that included this quote from a well known comedian: “The Sooner You Fall Behind, The More Time You Have To Catch Up.”
As I pondered the absurdity of the statement my mind focused on the many projects I have seen where this might have been taken seriously. I recall, many years ago, preparing an estimate for a new project, an in-house typesetting system. While this was not the most complicated software in the world, it took a lot at that time to do a decent job of typesetting with hyphenation, justification, kerning, leading, etc. all having to be implemented by hand generated code (how big is Knuth’s TEX application?). The customer had received a proposal from a trusted supplier (who did business reporting software) to build an entire system in just months. When confronted with the implausibility, the vendor’s only response was, “I just know I can do this.”  Thank goodness the customer didn’t go for it. If they had, what would have happened… After the original target day came and went there would have been a flurry… a descoping… more promises that “we are almost done, I just know it”… and after a year or two the project would probably have been canceled.
I recall another time, very early in my career… before parametric estimating, when we had a 4 terminal cluster system to develop. We had a functional spec and a (probably poor) estimate. We saw an ad in a computer magazine that said this particular programming language would cut costs to 10%. The supplier came out and guaranteed it: even bidding fixed price and just a few weeks for the entire job. I must admit I wondered how the vendor would do it… an assembly line type of setup where a team would pass information and where a chief programmer would allocate tasks or what. When the big day came one guy showed up. He worked about 24/7. The deadline came and went. Still no worries… it was the world’s answer to software and it was fixed price. Six months came and went. Now the vendor came in and said they couldn’t do it.  Four employees plus the vendor and 5 months later it was complete.
I have heard it said that if a cost performance index was below .95 or so, the project cannot catch up. While no one wants their projects to be in trouble, isn’t it valuable to understand what you can’t catch up?
Viable plans help make successful projects.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Final Version of the GAO Cost Guide
It appears that this is the final version of the GAO cost estimating guide which provides guidance on preparing viable cost estimates both early in the process and throughout the life cycle. Congratulations to the team. This is a great contribution to the industry and can, if used as intended create more successful projects. I especially appreciate the focus on preparing a viable estimate of cost, schedule, etc. then applying earned value management (EVM) to that. So often, in the past we have seen a chasm between those that generated estimates and the EVM people. These are two sides of the same coin.  The introduction follows:
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Applying Earned Value Management to Software Intensive Programs Part 4
For paper with figures see Applying Earned Value Management To Software Intensive Programs Final   This article was originally published in the Software Tech News, Volume 12, No. 1, April 2009.  The web site for more information about this publication is www.softwaretechnews.com  This paper illustrates how to achieve more successful projects with estimation, planning and control. Cost estimating as well as effort, schedule, and risk are included with illustrations from SEER for Software (SEER-SEM)
Using an analytic process to project cost and schedule based on actual performance
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Galorath Article “Applying Earned Value Management To Software Intensive Programs Part 2
For paper with figures see Applying Earned Value Management To Software Intensive Programs Final
Establishing a Process for Requirements Definition and Developing the Technical, Cost and Schedule Baselines
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A software program life cycle cost estimate is the most knowledgeable statement one can make at a particular point in time regarding effort/cost, schedule, staffing, risk, and reliability. However, the most important business decisions about a software project are often made at the time of minimum knowledge and maximum uncertainty.  Cost estimators recognize that the estimate is not a point, but rather a well formed estimate defined by a probability distribution.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Galorath Article “applying Earned Value Management To Software Intensive Programs Part 1
The new Galorath paper on performance based earned value went live on the DACS site today. It is so important to have viable estimates as the basis of plans for earned value to be valuable. For paper with figures see Applying Earned Value Management To Software Intensive Programs Final The paper’s introduction follows:
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.