Issues in Software Measurement & Estimation ISMA 2010
Measurement is a wonderful thing. However measurement without standards and definition can be worse than no measurement at all. This paper which I will be presenting at the 2010 ISMA conference begins the attack, highlighting the need and proposing that additional work commences in standards for estimation and measurement. Software Estimation and Measurement 2010
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Heuristics for Systems Engineering Cost Estimation
Dr. Ricardo Valerdi of MIT sent me a pre-publication copy of his upcoming IEEE article. Here is the abstract:
“Engineering cannot wait until all phenomena are explained. Engineers may work effectively, often for centuries, with heuristics. This paper provides thirty one heuristics that have been inspired by the development and application of a systems engineering cost estimation model. The objective of this paper is to present such heuristics in a simple manner so that they can benefit systems engineering researchers and practitioners that develop, calibrate, and use cost models.”
I enjoyed the article (as I do with pretty much everything Ricardo produces). Such simple truths. A few heuristics quoted from the paper follow:
“Don’t assume the original statement of the problem is necessarily the best, or even the right one.”
“Let the available data drive the application boundaries of the model.”
“Design the rating scale according to the phenomenon being modeled.”
The full article is available, as provided by Ricardo here: “Heuristics for Systems Engineering Cost Estimation.”
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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IT Project Failure Warning Signs
This list was adapted from ITBusinessEdge
Lack of governance: Project criteria, roles, processes & outcomes not used or accepted by management. Not understanding project risk.
Internal politics: Territorial fights. Its not my job, or “they” messed up.
Communication issues between the business and IT: IT talking with the business stakeholders about bandwidth and blobs rather than end user oriented benefits.
Unclear expectations: Bad estimates and ambiguous expectations.
Lack of fact based analysis: Plans not based on facts but on opinions. Studies have shown, for example, that projects of any magnitude can’t produce a viable estimate without a model like SEER.
Lack of input from users: IT may know how to do it but users probably know what they need better.
Changes in project without re-planning
Unplanned changes in key personnel
Unrealistic schedules: Projects on death marches.
Unanticipated operations costs: These must be estimated well up-front
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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New Code Counter Update Available from USC
The University of Southern California has been developing and updating line of code counters for a number of years. Such code counters can be very handy when using lines of code as a size measure. I know, many object to using lines of code, but when used correctly they can work well. We see users who have just as much success with lines of code as they do with function points, use cases, etc.
Even if you are a functional size user, knowing the SLOC for legacy can be useful, rather than counting the function points, etc. Here is the announcement from USC:
We are pleased to announce that a new version of the Unified CodeCount (UCC) tool is now available to the public at http://sunset.usc.edu/research/CODECOUNT/. This Release 2010.07 supports new programming languages (e.g., Fortran, Python, ColdFusion, Bash and C-Shell script) and the CSV output format among other enhancements and bug fixes. Please refer to the release notes document for further details at http://sunset.usc.edu/research/CODECOUNT/download/2010/UCC_Release_Notes_v.2010.07.pdf
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Cost To Recover from an IT Business Interruption
Aberdeen group published some interesting information regarding the time and cost to recover from business interruptions. This is the time to recover 90% of functionality. I recommend getting the complete report. They found that best in class recovered 6.5 times faster than laggards and had an average cost of $72,000 versus laggards with an average cost of $2,880,000.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Software Estimating: Sources and Uses of Data and Data Driven Estimates Intro
These days software estimation vendors are competing to have the largest repositories of completed software projects, and the customer is encouraging this competition, which is fundamentally good. However, there is more to insuring the accuracy of an estimation model than just having a lot of data points sitting on the proverbial shelf.
Where Data Comes From
The first question asked of a vendor is, where does your data on completed software projects come from? Early on, much of it came from Government agencies, who in turn collected from contractors. Over time, public sources have emerged that contain voluntarily submitted information from private companies worldwide; the prime example of this being the International Software Benchmark Standards Group (ISBSG). Galorath has obtained software project data over the years through numerous private and public sources. The data comprises many thousands of total observations that have passed data quality tests. Most observations contain size and effort information, thousands more do not contain all the desired fields.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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New “Bid To Win” Book Available For Download
Galorath’s Evin Stump and SEER customer Bill Vitaliano wrote an excellent book on preparing winning bids. While Evin did this on his own time, he has given Galorath permission to distribute it.
I am pleased to recommend this book covering the right things to produce winning proposals. It saddens me when people equate price to win with lying or low-balling since price to win can be a viable engineering approach for defining the best product or service for a client while ensuring it is also affordable. While this book is written with larger proposals in mind I believe many of its principles are applicable to both bidding and internal development. Bid To Win Book
In addition to the basic book, the authors have written a bid to win novel, Saving SEIC: An Industrial Love Story, to bring the points home (if you have read “The Goal,” you will be familiar with this approach.)
For a succinct summary of the costing part of price to win, I also recommend Galorath’s Bob Hunt’s price to win briefing found elsewhere on this site.
PS: I am at the APMP conference where I heard a rave review of the book and the process. Hats off to both Evin and Bill.
PS2: Someone asked me today why they didn’t charge for the book. Evin said they just wanted to make it available to the community.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Live From UK Williams Formula 1: DSTL Estimating Future Unmanned Air Systems
DSTL uses SEER and Galorath’s new CostIQ (Case based reasoning estimation) to rapidly generate estimates of Unmanned Air Vehicles. They are looking to reduce costs and increase the viability of estimates.
They need to understand the trade space of different system concepts and cost them to see how far they have to relax the capability until it is affordable.
CostIQ is allowing them to generate a complete estimate and detailed Work Breakdown Structure by describing performance based characteristics of a system. In UAVs, for example, reusability or not, range, payload, etc. are key drivers.
The paper will be available at www.galorath.com in the next few days.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Live From UK Williams Formula 1: Ford Motor Company Europe Uses SEER for Software and IT
This morning Ford Motor Company’s European operation presented their development process, how estimating is improving their developments and how they tie IT infrastructure and IT services into the estimate with SEER to see the complete costs, make trade-offs and produce successful solutions. They have several gates where estimates are required and a lessons learned post mortem. In an excellent talk the speaker pointed out that even when the requirements are known, there is requirements growth. This is modeled with the SEER “requirements volatility” parameter.
The presentation will be available at www.galorath.com in the next few days.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Possibilistic Versus Probabilistic Estimates
I was in a cost task force meeting this morning, looking for ways to improve cost analysis in outsource environments, both from the customer and the offerer sides. These have been interesting meetings in many regards. Today the discussion focused on outsourcers who provide a low estimate, looking for the best case to win the business rather than the most probable cost.
One of the panel members pointed out that some outsources bid “possiblistic” prices rather than probabilistic prices. Possibilistic estimates are possible, if everything goes right, but everything going right is not probable.
That is one of the reasons SEER provides a range in addition to likely costs & schedule.
We recommend planning for the probable, not just the possible.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.