I saw a demo today of our new labor rate calculator.  It takes in various labor rate drivers and computes a viable labor rate.   It even evaluates the cost of equipment, electricity, floor space, insurance, etc.

This is a great step forward in the “should cost” and will cost for product manufacturing.  Buying organizations can describe the problem and see what a fair labor rate for the region, country, machine, etc.  Mixed currencies are supported as well.

The following is a small example of the kinds of information that can be specified  In this case it is configured for manufacturing.

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Its funny how we take some things for granted.  For example we assumed everyone in the composites industry knew of our work in the Composites Affordability Initiative, and the advanced composites capabilities in our SEER models for cost, schedule, risk and reliability.  Yet someone recently told us they nearly didn’t find us during an Internet search.  SEER won at least two awards for this work, one with SAMPI as the most innovative product of the year, and another as one of the most valuable things to come out of the composites affordability initiative.

The Composites Affordability Initiative (CAI) Team was established in 1996 by the Air Force Manufacturing Technology (ManTech) Division of the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). When ManTech began CAI, its charter was to bring down the costs associated with the manufacture of composite structures, considered essential to high-performance aircraft advancement.  What is now called the SEER Aerostructures plug-in is used by major aerospace manufacturers around the world.  Specifically, the Aerostructures Plug-in for SEER-MFG includes over 25 existing and emerging composite fabrication and assembly processes, providing a method for quickly and accurately determining and evaluating costs of alternate designs and manufacturing processes. It enables an increased number of trade studies in a shorter period of time, resulting in cost reductions by the early identification of the most affordable composite structural concepts with greater dependability than previously possible.  Additionally, the Detailed Composites capability in SEER-MFG was developed in conjunction with Airbus.  Part shapes can be described in detail, including build-ups and cores, materials and resins, the material cutting process, the bagging process, consumable materials, hot-ply forming, curing, and trimming. Tooling manufacture costs and inspection costs using non-destructive testing techniques are included in the model.

Many examples of major cost savings have been noted using SEER and its advanced composites capability. For example ATK saves over a person year using SEER advanced composites capability and this doesn’t count the cost savings from choosing the most affordable approaches.

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The following are the bullet points from Dan’s paper on estimating best practices.  Using these best practices can increase project success dramatically.

• Decide Why You Want An Estimate
• Map Estimation Goals To Estimate Process Maturity & Develop Plan To Achieve The Maturity
• Have A Documented, Repeatable Estimation Process
• Evaluate Total Ownership Cost; Not Just Development
• Estimate A Range And Pick A Point For The Plan
• Re-estimate The Program When It Changes
• Avoid Death Marches: Programs With Unachievable Schedules Are Likely To Fail And Drain Morale

• Keep A History: Start An Enterprise Database NOW
• Business Case: Evaluate ROI In Addition To Costs
• Convert Expert Spreadsheets Into A Common Language
• Make The Estimating Process As Simple As Possible; But No Simpler
• Be Proactive: The Process Is Important, The Tools Go Along With The Process
• Get Buy-in From Program Managers
• Hold People Accountable: Center Of Excellence Can Prepare Estimate But Program Managers Must Own Them
• Tie The Estimate To The Plan
• Track Progress Vs. Estimate Throughout The Life Cycle
• Estimate Schedule As Well As Effort (Cost) For Complete Picture
• Tie The Business Case Into The Estimating Process
• Attack Non-productive Rework As Part Of The Process
• Have clear definitions: What does complete mean.  What activities are included and excluded (E.g. development only or total ownership; help desk included or excluded, etc.)   Which labor categories are included and excluded in the estimate (e.g. are managers included?  Help desk? Etc.)
• Don’t ignore IT infrastructure and IT services costs
• Tracking defect sources can go along with the process

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Thanks to Galorath’s Joe Falque for providing these definitions for setup:

Setup Accounting Definition

Expenses incurred each time a batch is produced. It consists of engineering cost of setting up the production runs or machines, paperwork cost of processing the work order, and ordering cost to provide raw materials for the batch.

Production Setup

Production setup activities support an operation’s need to manufacture a diversity of products on the same equipment. Since setups are non value added, firms should seek to minimize their impact on manufacturing capacity and flexibility. World class manufacturing calls for heavy focus on setup reduction activities to support inventory reduction, capacity debottlenecking, and manufacturing flexibility. One-time portion of a production cycle in which a specific machine, work center, or assembly line is ‘made ready’ to switch from production of the last good piece of the last lot to the first good piece of the new lot, also known as change over.

Manufacturing Definition

Setup Cost

Setup costs include the labor and material to ready a machine for production. They may include the processing of work orders or a first-article inspection. Gathering of all required equipment hand and automated, tools, work orders, materials etc. which are needed to perform the manufacturing process.

Setup Cost Calculation

Setup costs are treated as a one time occurrence and that cost is divided or amortized over the batch size to be produced during the batch cycle. Each unit of the batch carries an equal share of the set up time and materials cost which are added to each unit run time and materials to calculate a total per unit cost. This cost curve on the part cost figure is high when batches are small and rapidly decreases with increasing batch quantity.

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The department of Industrial Management & Systems Engineering at West Virginia University used SEER for Manufacturing (formerly SEER-DFM) to determine the costs of an off the shelf coffee maker and identified potential cost savings by redesigning for manufacturability.   This is one of the strengths of SEER-MFG: the ability to understand costs of a design and determine ways to reduce product costs.  One group was able to reduce costs from $21.25 to $11.53.  They found that:

“SEER is an estimation and analysis application that lets you identify, evaluate and manage the complex array of cost, labor, assembly, process, part design, material and production variables that effect manufacturing operations from its most comprehensive knowledge base” and that “it is used to facilitate proactive real time cost impact assessments of commodity design alternatives in today’s global sourcing environment.”

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What an interesting journey SEER for Manufacturing (SEER-MFG, formerly known as SEER-DFM) has had in development.  Continued adding of additional manufacturing process has led the way.  And the latest release includes a completely redone machining model as well.

As major organizations continue to apply SEER-MFG to reducing costs there has been an increasing number of users who wanted the detail in the estimate to be sufficient for machine scheduling.  The Galorath staff, led by Dr. Chris Rush, Keith Garland and Joe Falque, along with the excellent software developers, accomplished this and much more including updates to composites modeling and other often requested processes.  Congratulations team.

And congratulations to the customers who are using SEER-MFG to continually drive down costs, both in manufacture and in parts costing and decision process.

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We are pleased to have received the official notification that Galorath’s Plug-in for Aerostructures, formerly known as the Composites Affordability Initiative Plug-in, has been freed from restrictions for international sales.  This means Galorath can offer SEER for Manufacturing – Aerostructures Edition to customers in any country with which the United States allows trade, as well as use by non-US citizens.

Galorath is proud to have worked with several leading American aerospace manufacturers (Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and GE Aircraft Engines) in a major cooperative effort to develop the Aerostructures plug-in.  The plug-in provides a method for quickly and accurately evaluating the cost of alternate composite materials and manufacturing processes.

Northrop Grumman, for example,  provided a case study showing how SEER-DFM (Now SEER-MFG) helped make critical decisions and save costs on the Joint Strike Fighter.

Another paper discussed how SEER-DFM provides cost savings for aircraft design.

“Galorath’s Composites Affordability Initiative (CAI) model, which is sold separately as an add-in to SEER-DFM (AKA SEER-MFG), provides the most detailed and flexible modeling environment. This model is aerospace-focused, and offers state-of-the-art composites modeling. The CAI plug-in includes Composites Operations, Cure and Trim. Each of these three is treated as a distinct work element type, providing a great level of detail and modeling flexibility. The CAI plug-in also includes non-composite models: Fitup, Drill Operations, Fasten, Paste Bond, E-Beam Assembly, 3-D Reinforcement, Sheet Metal and SPF/DB.”

 

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Follow this link to see some of the estimating united papers.� it was a great conference, full of useful information. Talks encompassing cost estimating (cost estimation), value engineering, product design, software, and more.

And thanks again to all the speakers and attendees as well as the hospitality of the Manchester United Football (soccer) club. And the Galorath staff whose diligent efforts made this a great success. Presentations will be available for all to download for the next few months, then will be available as part of the Galorath corporate library.

Galorath Conducts 5th Worldwide Conference on Project Estimation: Estimating United

On March 19th, 2009, Galorath conducted its 5th annual worldwide conference on project estimating. The conference title, Estimating United, was fitting both for its venue and content. The venue was Old Trafford, Manchester, United Kingdom, home of the world famous Manchester United Football Team. The content included presentations in two tracks from a variety of world class company participants, all united in their efforts to improve project estimation practices. Presentations covered a variety of topics in the area of project estimation, planning and control.

In recognition of their contributions to project estimation, two awards were presented at this year’s conference — one to Charles Symonds for his outstanding work and contributions in the field of software estimation and the second to Alan Jones of BAE Systems for his continued efforts to provide both a platform of knowledge for less experienced cost engineers and for his dedication to the Association of Cost Engineers activities to bring to our profession a “tiered approach to accreditation.” They join past recipients of this award which include Raj Roy, Cranfield University; David Reuss, Rolls Royce; and John Henson, AgustaWestland.

The 2nd SEER conference of the 2009 series will be held in El Segundo, CA on October 8th and 9th, 2009.

Presentations

Life Cycle Costing Capability in an International Organisation for Armament Cooperation

OCCAR-EA is an International organisation with full legal personality since 2001. It was created to co-ordinate, control and implement co-operative armament programmes that are assigned to it by the Member States. Today OCCAR is managing 7 Programmes with a total portfolio of 44 billions Euros. OCCAR is clearly tasked from its Convention to identify Cost Effective options to the nations both during Development and Production and for the In Service Phase of a Programme.  In this frame, OCCAR-EA has developed a Life Cycle Costing capability within the general approach of Through Life Management.  This allows the identification of common and cost effective solutions and informs the decision makers on these opportunities. The presentation will show the steps followed to set up this capability and will point out the specifics linked to an international Agency, a snapshot of the process in place, and the types of studies that have been performed.

Chairman’s Welcome and Opening Remarks

Carl Dalton introduces the day’s events, runs through the timings and housekeeping and introduces the Galorath team and the presenters.

The Value of Cost Estimating for Cost Management

Costs are determined in the very early stages of the Product Creation Process. Not using this fact, but only to focus on ‘solving technical puzzles’ or stressing Time-to-Market is a missed opportunity that in the end makes the business less competitive. In many companies Cost estimation can be a very valuable tool for purchasing in determining the “should cost” if only used in this way however cost estimation becomes a “purchasing tool” only.Changing to Target Costing means: Define the Customer Value before development starts, and derive the Target Cost from this. Then start studies to address the economic feasibility of new products, using cost estimation and cost driver analysis. This way cost estimation becomes a strategic decision support tool with less need to repair costs later on.Goof will address the following during his presentation:

• How we used to address costs (not)
• Change to Target Costing
• Role of Cost Estimation for target costing
• Some Examples of Cost Reduction achievements using Cost Estimation

Procurement Costs – Transparency and Assurance

Procured Equipment, Material and Services represents over two thirds of the initial cost of a military air platform and the resulting through life support activity. In the current climate of partnering and price transparency linked to a business environment increasingly focussed on ethical conduct, commercial parametric estimating models can provide confidence for both supplier and customer through open cost modelling based on industry standards of performance.This presentation will outline the current activity at BAE Systems – Military Air Solutions aimed at achieving these goals.

Understanding the Mysteries of MOD Support Costs

The costs incurred during the service life of equipment are a significant proportion of the whole life cost. However, these costs are not well understood and there are inconsistencies within the MOD as to how these are collected, collated and used. These costs are also used within the analysis at Dstl to inform high level Balance of Investment (BOI) decisions and it is therefore imperative that these costs are included as accurately as possible. The Support Costs study, funded by Director Equipment Plans (DEP), was commissioned to address this problem.The presentation will cover how the project team tackled the problem and explore some of the conclusions from the work.

Embedding Galorath’s Estimating Tools into a Project & Programme Management Suite

In this presentation we will show how the Galorath estimating tools have been integrated into Ninth Wave’s Project & Programme Management (PPM) suite.In most PPM products estimates for projects are entered manually and there is no audit trail provided for senior managers to see how the estimate was derived. Ninth Wave has enhanced its PPM suite to be able to generate an estimate automatically into a project by using the Galorath products in a “black box” fashion.The key benefits of this integrated approach are:

• estimating best practice is embedded into project management across the organisation
• drill-down capability to understand key inputs and drivers for an estimate
• ability to model different scenarios with just a couple of mouse clicks
• audit trail provided for all steps associated with generating an estimate

Software Sizing – the weakest link of estimating?

Charles Symons presents data on the performance of the software industry which in certain respects is dreadful. Evidence will be shown suggesting that this poor performance is at least partly due to weaknesses in performance measurements and in estimating. By “estimating”, we mean:

• initial estimation of the product size,
• methods for estimating project effort and duration from the initial size,
• processes by which estimating is integrated with project management,

where the first of these elements is the weakest link (though the third is also often weak).

The talk will then trace the development of methods of sizing software from using SLOC, to Albrecht’s idea of sizing functionality (now the IFPUG method), to the COSMIC method. Charles will briefly compare these methods and show how the COSMIC method overcomes weaknesses of earlier approaches.

What’s New and “Dan Galorath on Estimating”

What’s new and what’s coming in SEER will be featured.Additionally Dan will discuss selections from his blog. Dan will discuss selections from metrics, effectiveness measurement, the real costs of a variety of undertakings, what is ITIL versus ISO 9000, the risk of IT projects, what the assets of failed banks really are worth, and lots more. He weighs in on a wealth of topics both timeless and contemporary.

Computer-aided Business Case Assessment in Engineering Design Education

In all engineering initiatives the only acceptable basis for launching a product development programme is one in which low risk and high return-on-investment in the shortest possible timeline is secured. Up to 80% of the life-cycle cost of most high valued-added engineered products is incurred during the conceptual design phase, and, by the time completion of the design and development stage occurs 95% of the product cost is fixed and most of the development cost is spent. The University of Bristol, Department of Aerospace Engineering, and, the Department of Engineering Mathematics via its Engineering Design degree programme offer many examples of group project orientated education for undergraduates. The major student group projects for academic year 2008/09 include: (1) Airbus UK project “250-passenger Transport Aircraft Optimised for Multi-stop, Long-range Operations; (2) Arup project “Elevated Transport and Entertainment Ride System”; (3) Motorola project “Water Powered Pico Generator for a Mobile Phone Base Station”; (4) Hewlett-Packard project “Personal Carbon Footprint System”; (5) GE Aviation project “Automation of Pitch Control of a Propeller Engine; and, (6) Babcock project “Design Optimisation of a Nuclear Flask ‘Grab’ System”. A review of business case results from the aforementioned student group project work using the Galorath SEER-H cost estimation software will be presented.

Decisions, (Multi-Criterion, Subjective, unbounded), Decisions

The primary objective of this paper is to introduce two alternative methods, Absolute and Empirical Referencing, used to minimize the subjectivity surrounding some of the more crucial processes associated with project management and analysis. The Estimate by Comparison solution developed by Galorath Incorporated will be used as the vehicle to illustrate comparative sizing for the purposes of Parametric Estimation along with a few other more contemporary applications.

Estimation in ERP Environments

• Organisations have ambitious plans when purchasing ERP
• More than 75% believe in quick wins and grand return of investment
• In practice one will go a long way of learning
• 30% – 70% cost reduction is possible
• Therefore one needs a strong strategy in standardisation, developing
• Kknowing the pitfalls and monitoring the principal cost drivers are essential
• Benchmarking and estimating the projects and their environments will bring success
• Example insurance company:
  • Starting up with conventional planning and estimating
  • Gathering facts and figures
  • Switching to ERP environment planning
  • Building up company specific planning data
  • Creating private knowledge base

The 12 Sins of Estimation

Sin is a term used mainly in a religious context to describe an act that violates a moral code of conduct or the state of having committed such a violation. In monotheistic religions, the code of conduct is determined by God. Colloquially, any thought, word, or act considered immoral, harmful, or alternative might be termed “sinful”. Knowingly, and unknowingly, we as estimation experts commit sins in the area of Estimation, leading to harmful effects on the project management, tracking and control. With the premise that not doing wrong things is a way to do the right, the presentation highlights the common sins committed by experts in the field of estimation.Taking into account the current practical realities of business, the presentation explains how we can improve the process of estimation, and how to gather the critical mass required to make change happen in an organization.

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I was so impressed with the presentation by one of our speakers at the recent user conference that I bought a copy of his book.  In his presentation(and also included on our site, galorath.com) he showed how he saved millions of euros in product costs using target costing, value analysis, and viable cost estimating and SEER. 

It is wonderful to see forward thinkers applying SEER to save big costs as well as to estimate costs.  In his presentation he substantiated savings of 20 to 40% cost price reduction (value improvement)  And he does this not be grinding contractors but by working with them to provide substantial cost savings without impinging on their margins.

His book is well worth a read.  The abstract follows:

“Many companies experience price pressure as a result of the global marketplace. The advance of technology creates many opportunities adding more innovative new features. Yet these opportunities also seem to drive up costs. How to end the resulting profit squeeze? Many aim for low labor cost countries as a solution.

Our approach is: Use Target Costing and Value Analysis.

Target costing sets allowable costs, derived from the value as perceived by customers, instead of price as a result of cost. Value analysis shows the way where the value of a product is, or where to reduce the cost. One of the key success factors in this approach is Cost Engineering and Cost Estimation. Another is multi disciplinary teamwork between marketers, developers, operations and suppliers.
The structured approach and open communication help achieve astonishing results, typically in the range of 20 to 40% cost price reduction or value improvement.
This book, or better Manual, describes how to apply and implement these methods in an organization, and how to involve suppliers efficiently and effectively via so called Design-in Workshops.”

 It can be purchased for 69 Euros at www.orenda.nl

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In his opening speech to the 91 delegates at last April’s conference, Galorath’s Cost Engineering Consultant and former Cost Estimating Engineer at Agusta Westland John Henson explained the ‘back to basics’ approach the company was now taking, the message being that only the application of common sense is required to make the most of its range of products for hardware and software development, manufacturing and IT systems. Addressing representatives from over 50 different companies, both current and prospective users, the conference featured speeches from several users in the field of cost engineering, including representatives from Raytheon, Airbus and BAE Systems, each giving an insight into how the software was being practically applied to current projects.

As long-term users of the manufacturing tool SEER MFG (formerly DFM), Senior Value Engineer Martin Dunklcy and Cost Engineer David Tyso of Aicbus UK detailed how the software was being used as part of the development process to derive potentially new cost-effective design solutions for spoilers on the A320 and allow them together with their current supplier to come to well informed trade-off decisions. In the study, three different generic concept designs were established: a composite monolithic structure, a composite sandwich and a more traditional metallic structure.

After entering the specific data, it was found that a composite monolithic design offered the largest cost saving as, although the material costs were higher, the structure was less labour intensive to manufacture while still meeting functional and design standards, and adhering to the appropriate Joint Aviation Requirements. These studies analysed a whole range

of viable materials and manufacturing technologies including prepreg, Nomex, reinforced foam, resin infusion materials and aluminium alloy, and also revealed the feasibility of outsourcing some work to Asia, which was contingent on the source of materials, cost and complexity of manufacturing operations.

As for future designs, Mr Tyso also explained three alternative wing rib designs for future aircraft programs, with current investigation looking at metals, carbon-fibre reinforced plastics and hybrid laminates. Using SEER MFG in this instance offers Airbus designers and cost engineers the advantage of allowing for multiple refinements to be made without having to adjust the base model too much, giving greater flexibility and ease of use. Such levels of detail as far as total component cost is concerned, allows for a reasonably accurate estimation of die manufacturing costs at a preliminary stage, making it easier to establish which technologies should be pursued and can potentially be used in other aircraft programs. Airbus’ use of the program has even allowed the company to become active in its development and has worked with Galorath to increase its complexity and accuracy in handling individual components. Airbus is now also using a CAl (Composites Affordability Initiative) plug-in for greater precision including specific aircraft assembly modules for operation modeling.

The importance of such studies into life cycle costs increases when one considers the rising cost of fuel. With the price rising from around $200 per metric ton in January 2002 to S900 as of January 2008, the amount of weight reduction a manufacturer can achieve will have an increasingly magnified effect on running costs. In an independent study conducted towards his PhD, Markus Kaufmann of the Kungliga Tekniska Hcigskolan in Stockholm demonstrated how based on a fixed �400 per metric ton, a ikg weight reduction on an A330 could save between �1,500 and �2,000 on fuel expenses over a typical 25 year aircraft lifespan.

As it is designed to encapsulate the entire process, the SEER range of programs can account for most aspects associated with the common problems of weight saving. For example, although composite materials usually offer superior properties their impact is felt all the way through additional development, product lifespan, maintenance and disposal costs, and it Ls these changes that SEER MFG is designed to track. In several papers presented to the conference. Mr Kaufmann used the software to find the optimum solution in a cost/weight trade�off by combining all the relevant information into one objective function.

A simplified form of direct operating cost (E>OC) on a component level was evaluated for each design solution based on the cost of each flight, maintenance, depreciation, fees and the financing strategy, where SEER MFG was used to estimate the manufacturing cost. An FE analysis was then completed to review the structural integrity. This systematic approach was applied to the optimisation of a generic stringer/skin panel for both a low cost and low weight design. The low cost design featured larger stringers and a wider pitch while the low weight design had smaller stringers and narrower pitch. What was discovered through the analysis however was that a wider pitch could reduce cost by using fewer stringers without compromising structural strength. Using this information, it was then possible to focus the study on different material configurations, with the finding that the choice of material should be dependent on the type of structure, the load case and the desired cost/weight ratio.

Once the design had been decided, an external module was used to produce a cost strategy for NDT (non-destructive testing). By producing reports on various flaw sizes, Mr Kaufmann was able to determine that larger flaw sizes would compromise the component weight and manufacturing cost, which could then lead to higher direct operating costs. When smaller flaw sizes were applied, some weight and cost savings could be obtained by requiring thinner structures, despite the higher inspection cost. As a result, it was possible to embed quality management into the design phase optimising cost efficiency for the whole product life cycle. Higher, carefully focused spending in manufacturing therefore ultimately proved to reduce expenses overall.

The big announcement from Galorath itself, was of the release of SEER for IT, which has been four and a half years in development. The program features project estimating software supporting planning throughout a project development life cycle and project planning software for detailed insight into the risks, uncertainty and cost drivers associated with IT project development and management. One benefit of the new software is the ability to tailor the application to a user’s own requirements, improving ease of use and reducing errors. A new plug in for SEER-H that reproduces plans in Microsoft Project was also announced. www.galorath.com

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