Issues in Software Measurement & Estimation ISMA 2010
Measurement is a wonderful thing. However measurement without standards and definition can be worse than no measurement at all. This paper which I will be presenting at the 2010 ISMA conference begins the attack, highlighting the need and proposing that additional work commences in standards for estimation and measurement. Software Estimation and Measurement 2010
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Heuristics for Systems Engineering Cost Estimation
Dr. Ricardo Valerdi of MIT sent me a pre-publication copy of his upcoming IEEE article. Here is the abstract:
“Engineering cannot wait until all phenomena are explained. Engineers may work effectively, often for centuries, with heuristics. This paper provides thirty one heuristics that have been inspired by the development and application of a systems engineering cost estimation model. The objective of this paper is to present such heuristics in a simple manner so that they can benefit systems engineering researchers and practitioners that develop, calibrate, and use cost models.”
I enjoyed the article (as I do with pretty much everything Ricardo produces). Such simple truths. A few heuristics quoted from the paper follow:
“Don’t assume the original statement of the problem is necessarily the best, or even the right one.”
“Let the available data drive the application boundaries of the model.”
“Design the rating scale according to the phenomenon being modeled.”
The full article is available, as provided by Ricardo here: “Heuristics for Systems Engineering Cost Estimation.”
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Live From UK Williams Formula 1: Ford Motor Company Europe Uses SEER for Software and IT
This morning Ford Motor Company’s European operation presented their development process, how estimating is improving their developments and how they tie IT infrastructure and IT services into the estimate with SEER to see the complete costs, make trade-offs and produce successful solutions. They have several gates where estimates are required and a lessons learned post mortem. In an excellent talk the speaker pointed out that even when the requirements are known, there is requirements growth. This is modeled with the SEER “requirements volatility” parameter.
The presentation will be available at www.galorath.com in the next few days.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Viable Software Estimation Modeling: A Key Component Of Software Risk Management
I spoke with someone recently who explained the reason they use SEER is for risk management. They pointed out that not only can they determine the risks of schedule, effort and reliability, but the whole of SEER allows them to do risk reduction. A process improvement: no problem, a quick trade off is performed by setting the appropriate SEER parameters for process improvement, process experience, development tools and practices and they can see exactly what to expect, both good and bad. Then when asked to justify the result he can state explicitly: this includes reduction of team experience with processes, the process improvement going on during this project, any tools being deployed in the process improvement effort and the anticipated cost / benefit.
And for projects that are not challenged with new and different challenges, knowledge bases do the job without needing to concentrate on parameters.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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DoD Contractor Estimating Systems Deficiencies Can Withhold 10%
A draft rule for business systems has been posted by the Government allowing the withholding of 10% of payments for each of six systems, with a maximum of 50% withholdings. These systems include contractor business systems including 1) estimating, 2) purchasing, 3) accounting, 4) earned value, 5) property and 6) material management.
In 2009 the congressionally chartered Commission on Wartime Contracting stated in its June 2009 interim report to Congress that:
“Weak control systems increase the risk of unallowable and unreasonable costs on government contracts”
Comments will be accepted until March 16, 2010. Email to dfars@osd.mil with subject DFARS Case 2009-D038.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Controlling Software Projects: Development Is Only Job One: Chicago SPIN Nov 12 2009
Dan will be speaking at the Chi10 stecago SPIN on November 12, 2009 on the topic of controlling software projects. Estimation, planning, control, metrics, and maintenance fo a total ownership cost view wil be discussed.
The presentation is here: Chicago SPIN November 2009 Galorath Presentation Controlling Software Projects Development Is Only Job 1
PS Dan looks forward to his short visit to Chicago, his home town. And is going to carefully avoid pizza, hot dogs, and Italian beef while he is there.
The flyer follows:
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Dan Speaking at Detroit CAI Seminar
I will be speaking one estimating process yielding project success at the Computer Aid Seminar in Detroit On April 30, 2009.
My message will be that spending time on estimation and planning yields more successful projects and fewer project surprises. And I will go through the 10 step process. Additionally I will introduce Galorath’s estimation maturity model.
I am excited to speak along with Ed Yourdon, Larry Dribin, and CAI’s Bob Longhorn.
It should be a great event. I have participated in these with Larry and Bob in the past, and I am a lifetime fan of Ed.
I believe we will be doing the same genre in Toronto later in the year.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Estimating United Conference Papers Available On the Web
Follow this link to see some of the estimating united papers. it was a great conference, full of useful information. Talks encompassing cost estimating (cost estimation), value engineering, product design, software, and more.
And thanks again to all the speakers and attendees as well as the hospitality of the Manchester United Football (soccer) club. And the Galorath staff whose diligent efforts made this a great success. Presentations will be available for all to download for the next few months, then will be available as part of the Galorath corporate library.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Better Products At better Margins 20 to 40% Cost Price Reduction
I was so impressed with the presentation by one of our speakers at the recent user conference that I bought a copy of his book. In his presentation(and also included on our site, galorath.com) he showed how he saved millions of euros in product costs using target costing, value analysis, and viable cost estimating and SEER.Â
It is wonderful to see forward thinkers applying SEER to save big costs as well as to estimate costs. In his presentation he substantiated savings of 20 to 40% cost price reduction (value improvement) And he does this not be grinding contractors but by working with them to provide substantial cost savings without impinging on their margins.
His book is well worth a read. The abstract follows:
“Many companies experience price pressure as a result of the global marketplace. The advance of technology creates many opportunities adding more innovative new features. Yet these opportunities also seem to drive up costs. How to end the resulting profit squeeze? Many aim for low labor cost countries as a solution.
Our approach is: Use Target Costing and Value Analysis.
Target costing sets allowable costs, derived from the value as perceived by customers, instead of price as a result of cost. Value analysis shows the way where the value of a product is, or where to reduce the cost. One of the key success factors in this approach is Cost Engineering and Cost Estimation. Another is multi disciplinary teamwork between marketers, developers, operations and suppliers.
The structured approach and open communication help achieve astonishing results, typically in the range of 20 to 40% cost price reduction or value improvement.
This book, or better Manual, describes how to apply and implement these methods in an organization, and how to involve suppliers efficiently and effectively via so called Design-in Workshops.”
 It can be purchased for 69 Euros at www.orenda.nl
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Why Do Estimation Webinar With Geoff Hewson and Dan Galorath
I have had a good time developing a webinar with Geoff Hewson of the Software Productivity Center. It should be very informative and hopefully entertaining as well.
Register by clicking
Date and time: Tuesday, March 10, 2009 8:30 am
Pacific Daylight Time (GMT -07:00, San Francisco)
Description: Software estimation, planning and control can be keystones to successful projects. Companies that estimate strategically are able to zero in their projects so they deliver to business targets. Despite this many treat estimation as a black art or worse – a guess.
Dan Galorath and Geoff Hewson will explain the key concepts that drive successful software estimation in support of planning and managing successful software development and maintenance projects:
1. Decisions and deliverables needed to design estimation procedures tuned to your organization.
2. Guidance in setting up the infrastructure you need to realize the most benefit from your new estimation capabilities.
3. Establishing a “negotiating culture” to allow you to deal effectively with the results of your estimates and focus projects on business success.
SEER for Software concepts will support the discussion.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.