We have some exciting events coming up this month with the first: The Future of Software Analysis and Measurement on October 12, 2011. I am really excited to share the virtual podium with Bill Curtis, Senior VP and Chief Scientist of CAST Corporation and with David Herron, David Consulting Groups VP of Knowledge Solution Services as moderator.

Bill and I both spoke at a software engineering conference last year and I got very excited about his work in software analysis with CAST. Besides Bill being an engaging speaker his content was very illuminating, covering issues of existing software, its complexity and reliability. He ev!–more–
en showed the number of latent defects in software of various languages. I have greatly summarized some of the a href=http://www.galorath.com/wp/software-defects-in-fielded-software-cast-analysis.phpsoftware defect conclusions /aelsewhere on this BLOG and CAST has been instrumental in recognizing and quantifying the a href=http://www.galorath.com/wp/500-billion-it-debt-for-deferred-maintenance.phptechnical debt/a

And with David Herron, one of the most knowledgeable people in the measurement community, this should be a do not miss event.

Details of the event follow as does a link to signup. Hope you can make it.
blockquotestrongThe Future of Software Analysis and Measurement/strong

October 12, 2011 8:00am Pacific, 11:00am Eastern, 4:00pm London

a href=http://www.castsoftware.com/news-events/event/future-of-sam?gad=glrClick this Webinar Link to sign up/a

Join us on October 12th to hear from an exciting lineup of experts on the Future of Software Analysis and Measurement: Dan Galorath, President CEO of Galorath Inc and Bill Curtis, SVP Chief Scientist, CAST will have an engaging discussion moderated by David Herron, VP, Knowledge Solution Services, David Consulting Group.

These industry veterans will share experiences with their client’s software development processes and discuss how Software Analysis and Measurement tools coupled with Parametric Estimation models can impact organizational performance through increased ROI, customer satisfaction and business value.

The panel will provide insightful and actionable steps that will make an immediate impact on your strategy including how to:

• Drive organization value by fueling Estimate and Measurement practices within an enterprise

• Build the funding rationale through proven economic impact models

• Establish the ROI from Estimate and Measurement practices and process/blockquote

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 WRONG: “No one in this world, so far as I know, has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people.” -H. L. Mencken

I am in process going through the book “The Wisdom of Crowds.”  The book’s point is that large groups of people are smarter than the elite, most brilliant  few, at solving problems, making good decisions, stimulating innovation, and  predicting the future.

This counter-intuitive point has significant ramifications in estimation, planning and control.

Of course the “crowd” needs to be people who understand the domain and issues of whatever needs to be estimated, such as the size or parameters in a SEER estimate, and they must be motivated to achieve the right answer, not the politically correct, self serving, or wished-for answer, but the truth.

Answering questions such as: Why is the line in which you’re standing always the longest? Why are there traffic jams? What’s the best way to win money on a game show?   

I find this interesting on many levels as well as pointing out why our estimate by comparison function works so well when a team provides the answers.

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The following are the bullet points from Dan’s paper on estimating best practices.  Using these best practices can increase project success dramatically.

• Decide Why You Want An Estimate
• Map Estimation Goals To Estimate Process Maturity & Develop Plan To Achieve The Maturity
• Have A Documented, Repeatable Estimation Process
• Evaluate Total Ownership Cost; Not Just Development
• Estimate A Range And Pick A Point For The Plan
• Re-estimate The Program When It Changes
• Avoid Death Marches: Programs With Unachievable Schedules Are Likely To Fail And Drain Morale

• Keep A History: Start An Enterprise Database NOW
• Business Case: Evaluate ROI In Addition To Costs
• Convert Expert Spreadsheets Into A Common Language
• Make The Estimating Process As Simple As Possible; But No Simpler
• Be Proactive: The Process Is Important, The Tools Go Along With The Process
• Get Buy-in From Program Managers
• Hold People Accountable: Center Of Excellence Can Prepare Estimate But Program Managers Must Own Them
• Tie The Estimate To The Plan
• Track Progress Vs. Estimate Throughout The Life Cycle
• Estimate Schedule As Well As Effort (Cost) For Complete Picture
• Tie The Business Case Into The Estimating Process
• Attack Non-productive Rework As Part Of The Process
• Have clear definitions: What does complete mean.  What activities are included and excluded (E.g. development only or total ownership; help desk included or excluded, etc.)   Which labor categories are included and excluded in the estimate (e.g. are managers included?  Help desk? Etc.)
• Don’t ignore IT infrastructure and IT services costs
• Tracking defect sources can go along with the process

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Measurement is a wonderful thing.  However measurement without standards and definition can be worse than no measurement at all.  This paper which I will be presenting at the 2010 ISMA conference begins the attack, highlighting the need and proposing that additional work commences in standards for estimation and measurement.  Software Estimation and Measurement 2010

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Dr. Ricardo Valerdi of MIT sent me a pre-publication copy of his upcoming IEEE article. Here is the abstract:

“Engineering cannot wait until all phenomena are explained. Engineers may work effectively, often for centuries, with heuristics. This paper provides thirty one heuristics that have been inspired by the development and application of a systems engineering cost estimation model. The objective of this paper is to present such heuristics in a simple manner so that they can benefit systems engineering researchers and practitioners that develop, calibrate, and use cost models.”

I enjoyed the article (as I do with pretty much everything Ricardo produces).  Such simple truths. A few heuristics quoted from the paper follow:

“Don’t assume the original statement of the problem is necessarily the best, or even the right one.”

“Let the available data drive the application boundaries of the model.”

“Design the rating scale according to the phenomenon being modeled.”

The full article is available, as provided by Ricardo here: “Heuristics for Systems Engineering Cost Estimation.”

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This morning Ford Motor Company’s European operation presented their development process, how estimating is improving their developments and how they tie IT infrastructure and IT services into the estimate with SEER to see the complete costs, make trade-offs and produce successful solutions. They have several gates where estimates are required and a lessons learned post mortem. In an excellent talk the speaker pointed out that even when the requirements are known, there is requirements growth.� This is modeled with the SEER “requirements volatility” parameter.

The presentation will be available at www.galorath.com in the next few days.

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I spoke with someone recently who explained the reason they use SEER is for risk management.� They pointed out that not only can they determine the risks of schedule, effort and reliability, but the whole of SEER allows them to do risk reduction.� A process improvement: no problem, a quick trade off is performed by setting the appropriate SEER parameters for process improvement, process experience, development tools and practices and they can see exactly what to expect, both good and bad.� Then when asked to justify the result he can state explicitly: this includes reduction of team experience with processes, the process improvement going on during this project, any tools being deployed in the process improvement effort and the anticipated cost / benefit.

And for projects that are not challenged with new and different challenges, knowledge bases do the job without needing to concentrate on parameters.

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A draft rule for business systems has been posted by the Government�allowing the withholding of 10% of payments for each of six systems, with a maximum of 50% withholdings.  These systems include contractor business systems including 1) estimating, 2) purchasing, 3) accounting, 4) earned value, 5) property and  6) material management.

In 2009  the congressionally chartered Commission on Wartime Contracting stated in its June 2009  interim report to Congress that:

“Weak control systems increase the risk of unallowable and unreasonable costs on government contracts”

Comments will be accepted until March 16, 2010.  Email to dfars@osd.mil with subject DFARS Case 2009-D038.

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Dan will be speaking at the Chicago SPIN on November 12, 2009 on the topic of controlling software projects.  Estimation, planning, control, metrics, and maintenance for a total ownership cost view will be discussed.

The presentation is here: Chicago SPIN November 2009 Galorath Presentation Controlling Software Projects Development Is Only Job 1

PS Dan looks forward to his short visit to Chicago, his home town.  And is going to carefully avoid pizza, hot dogs, and Italian beef while he is there.

The flyer follows:

Chicago Software Process Improvement Network

(C-SPIN) Meeting

AT&T Center Campus

AT&T Institute 2501 W. Eagle Way at

Lakewood Blvd and Eagle Way, Hoffman Estates, IL 60192

Be sure to check the C-SPIN website (http://c-spin.net/) to confirm details.

SPECIAL DATE: Thursday, November 12, 2009

6:00 – 7:00 PM – Atrium: Registration, Networking, & Light Snacks

6:20 – 6:40 PM – Birds-of-a-Feather Topic – TBD

7:00 – 8:30 PM – Auditorium: Presentation

8:30 – 9:00 PM – Auditorium: Additional Q&A and discussion

Abstract:

Planning software development projects is never easy. Requirements, time-to-market, architectural and quality issues, staffing, risks and many other factors must be carefully considered. Development tradeoffs impact software maintainability andcan significantly impact total cost of ownership. Many factors other complicate software planning.  Software planners tend to underestimate the degree to which code degrades over time. Software development costs are only a portion of the total cost of ownership. Software maintenance can often be up to four times the initial development cost.

This session will provide a systematic approach to addressing total cost of ownership across the software lifecycle, including design for maintainability, development of measurement criteria, collection of metrics, and industry standards, guidelines, and best practice options. Parametric modeling will be discussed using the SEER platform as a specific example. Estimating block changes and their potential interdependencies and impacts will also be covered.

Biography

Over a period of three decades, Dan Galorath has established a reputation as a leading expert in project estimation, analysis, management and control. He has literally written the book on the subject (Software Sizing, Estimation and Risk Management, Auerbach Publishing). Dan realized early that there was a better way to develop accurate project estimates. Today SEER ® analysis tools from Galorath Inc. are saving millions of dollars for organizations worldwide. Galorath’s customer base reads like a who’s who of American and European industry: Airbus, Bank of America, Boeing, Ford Motor Company, Lockheed Martin, NASA, Raytheon, Siemens, and the U.S. Army, Navy, and Air Force, etc.

Dan lectures internationally and has published numerous articles and papers on software cost modeling, testing, software lifecycle error prediction and requirements definition. Dan was named winner of the 2001 International Society of Parametric Analysts (ISPA) Freiman Award presented to individuals who have made outstanding contributions to the theoretical or applied aspects of parametric modeling. Dan also received the 2009 lifetime achievement award for his contributions to estimation, planning and control from The Society of Cost Estimation and Analysis (SCEA)

Driving and Parking Directions

From I-90 Northwest Tollway, exit North on Barrington Road; take Barrington Road to Lakewood Blvd (2nd light) and turn East (right) onto Lakewood Blvd.  Turn right into the AT&T Campus Center’s West Employee Entrance (the first entrance past Eagle Way) and follow the signs to the West Parking Structures.  Parking in covered lot W3 is recommended.  Look for parking spaces near the west entrance/exit of parking structure W3. Then walk west from the parking structure to the Institute Building to the main door, which has a big ENTRANCE sign over the door.  The Institute is approximately 100 yards from the parking structure–back across the road you came on.  Visit http://www.c-spin.net for a map of the AT&T Campus Center.  (Additional parking is available in covered lot W2 as well as upper level parking lot W1.)

About C-SPIN

C-SPIN is a leadership forum for the free and open exchange of software process improvement experiences and practical ideas. We promote achieving higher levels of process maturity, software quality, and mutual respect. Companies, academic institutions, government organizations, and individuals are invited. For information about C-SPIN or the steering committee, contact Karen Mermel at kmermel@yahoo.com.

To receive future announcements electronically, register your e-mail address (include name, personal email address, company, and phone number) http://c-spin.net/newsletter/

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I will be speaking on estimating process yielding project success at the Computer Aid Seminar in Detroit On April 30, 2009.

My message will be that spending time on estimation and planning yields more successful projects and fewer project surprises.  And I will go through the 10 step process.  Additionally I will introduce Galorath’s estimation maturity model.

I am excited to speak along with Ed Yourdon, Larry Dribin, and CAI’s Bob Longhorn.

It should be a great event.  I have participated in these with Larry and Bob in the past, and I am a lifetime fan of Ed.

I believe we will be doing the same genre in Toronto later in the year.

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