Live From UK Williams Formula 1: DSTL Estimating Future Unmanned Air Systems
DSTL uses SEER and Galorath’s new CostIQ (Case based reasoning estimation) to rapidly generate estimates of Unmanned Air Vehicles. They are looking to reduce costs and increase the viability of estimates.
They need to understand the trade space of different system concepts and cost them to see how far they have to relax the capability until it is affordable.
CostIQ is allowing them to generate a complete estimate and detailed Work Breakdown Structure by describing performance based characteristics of a system. In UAVs, for example, reusability or not, range, payload, etc. are key drivers.
The paper will be available at www.galorath.com in the next few days.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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SEER-H Electro Optical Sensor Estimation Validation
If you estimate Electro Optical Sensors you will know what a challenge it can be. That is why SEER-H’s ElectroOptical Sensor model was developed. The following is feedback from a user: SEER-H EOS was within 6% of actuals and they thought they could have gotten even closer had they answered all the questions instead of just the first three. The report follows:
A confirmation of the SpyGlass EOS estimating tool and platform influence factors.
I received a recent Government Procurement announcement for one of the systems in the EO Sensor model database that provided the the unit’s cost and procurement history. The sensor is one of the projects in the CostIQ library. I loaded the the procurement info into the CostIQ SEER-H EOS project i.e. prior units, quantity buy and learning curve. SEER-H EOS projected a production cost of $487,722 and the actual Government procurement cost was $458,000, within 6% of the actual. Note: I had only reset the 3 parameters noted above.
I would expect if I were to do a detail analysis of the procurement/procurement history and tweaked SEER-H EOS the results would even more closely matched the actual procurement cost.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Personal Capabilities & Other Non-Technical Parameters Can Make a Big Difference in Estimating
Thanks to Galorath’s Sam Sanchez for these insights on non-technical parameters:
When I first started with Galorath, I used to wonder about the usefulness of having parameter inputs like “Developer Experience” or “Development Tools and Practices” within our electronic models. Like many engineers, I didn’t like these types of qualitative inputs, preferring to use more concrete entries like “frequency of board,” “number of ICs/IO” and others. However, as the years have progressed, I am amazed at how critical these qualitative parameters continue to be. Like I heard mentioned in one of my SEER H classes, “There are A teams, B teams and believe it or not even D teams.” More importantly, the impact of these variations can cause dramatic differences in a project’s level of effort.
Common reasons for poor team efficiency could be longevity of the individuals in the given technologies, recent mergers, bad chemistry, poor communication practices and others. It’s important to note that we look at this parameter as an overall assessment of the team.
To help reduce confusion with this input, SEER-IC looks at the following criteria: Accomplishment Metric, Configuration Control, Communications, Adv Skills and Tool Experience. Specific measures within these major sections help users to come up with a reasonable range input. Also, this is definitely one parameter that should have a different entry for “least,”, “likely” or “most.” In other words, there is always some level of risk here.
In SEER-H, swings in Development Experience individually can swing costs by as much as 30%. Development Tools and Practices by as much as 50%. We tend to look at “common” variations. In reality, at times, the variations may be orders of magnitude.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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SEER-H Expanded Technology Support for Electro Optical Sensors
The latest SEER-H update also included major enhancements to the SEER-EOS electro optical sensor model.Â
SEER-EOS adds specific features to extend the capability of SEER-H to estimate the life-cycle costs of electro-optical sensors. SEER-EOS estimates are derived from key technical and performance parameters.
The original EOS model release handled space based systems. While the space community was thrilled, organizations with other requirements grumbled.  Well, the wait is over. The Electro-Optical Sensor (EOS) update offers estimation of sensors on space based, air vehicles, missile, and other complex platforms.
In addition to an overall database update, several new technologies have been added, including a new technology category for Laser sensors which includes Laser Diode and Diode Pumpted NdYAG Lasers. New and revised optical devices include Refractive Telescopes (both Visible and IR), Reflective Telescopes and Reflective Telescopes with Scanning Mirror. New detector technologies include Linear InGaAs, Area InGaAs, Area Bicolor HgCtTe and Area Microbolotomers. There is a new One-Axis Piezoelectric Actuator mechanism and a new Joule-Thompson with Pressure Vessel cooler.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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SEER-IC Add-on To SEER-H Gets The Newest Technologies
Galorath has just released a major update to SEER for Hardware, Electronics & Systems. Major enhancements encompass several areas. I am always fascinated by the SEER-IC plug-in that models custom chips (which can be major cost drivers of systems,) as especially the positive feedback we get from organizations building complicated electronic systems.
SEER-IC adds specific features to extend the capability of SEER-H to estimate the development and recurring costs for custom ICs, ASICs and FPGAs. This add-in is tightly integrated with SEER H to facilitate a more effective cost analysis of the circuit card and its critical components.
The Integrated Circuits (IC) option for SEER-H now offers estimation of Mixed Signal and MMIC technologies. This new capability extends SEER IC to cover components designed for RF applications in addition recurring and non-recurring costs of developing a Standard Cell ASIC and FPGA.
Congratulations to the development team and user organizations who assisted with this update.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Brooks Law Is Applicable To Many Collaborative People Activities
Brooks Law is that there is an incremental person, when added to a software project, that makes it require more, not less time. And adding people to a late software project makes it later.
 I have been spouting Brooks Law for over 20 years for software projects. You know the drill. An important project is late. So the first inclination is to add more people, or put in a red team, or something to speed it up. Unfortunately when Brooks Law comes into play, those additional people make the project fall further behind. What happens is that for each additional person, there is some energy lost as they need to communicate with others. At some point the project has all the people it can handle. And adding people makes the project later. Even if the project could absorb more people, the reduction in productivity as the in-place team has to communicate with the additional staff on the late project causes the late project to get later.
Using this information we can determine where Brooks Law might kick in at any point in the project and can compute the minimum time – the point at which people have been added at the maximum rate that is still productive, and hence a minimum staffing time and numbers of staff. We can also determine the inefficiencies of overstaffing and the schedule penalty / cost improvement from using an optimal effort schedule as well. This is one of the core models within SEER for Software (SEER-SEM).
Although I have generally discussed this phenomenon in software projects, the same applies to hardware, IT or other engineering projects. And even on assembly projects.
I recall working at a cannery one evening. This was a facility that canned food for the needy. We had a great turnout, probably over a hundred people anxious to help. As the peaches came down the conveyor belt, the main job was to cut off any bad parts. Each person, wanting to help, picked up all the peaches they could and cut something off. I am sure the net pounds of peaches canned was well below what it would have been with the right number of people on the line.
And hardware development projects have nearly the same issues as software projects. Add too many people too early and there will be wasted energy. The project can take longer.
The opposite is also true, to a point. Assuming a project is planned with a longer schedule and fewer people from the start: Fewer people on a project can extend the schedule but fewer communication paths cause the total effort to be less.
The basic issue of Brooks Law can be expressed in the equation:
n(n − 1) / 2
This equation computes how many different communication paths exist between team members. Thus the larger the team, the more time people spend communicating rather than making progress. So adding people to a project that is already late increases those communication paths and takes more of the time of those who should be making progress.
 
Figure 2 illustrates that there is a minimum time for any software project to be completed (it can be shipped sooner but to be really ready to ship this minimum time comes into play.)Â Additionally, some cost maybe saved by a planned longer schedule (but not many projects in the US are willing to wait longer… In general, Europe is much more appreciative of the lower cost opportunities.) up to the optimal effort point where the cost begins to rise again.
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PS: Use cautain when some claim Brooks law is no longer valid. Proper application of Brooks law should look at individual teams working on individual programs, not an entire large system all at once.
References:
Excellent Knol on Brooks law.
“The Mythical Man Month” is a classic in software engineering, written by Frederick Brooks and describes Brooks Law in detail.
Wikipedia, The Mythical Man Month
Software Sizing, Estimation and Risk Management: when Performance Is Measured Performance Improves“Â by D. Galorath and M. Evans.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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New Update To SEER for Hardware, Electronics & Systems Hits Beta
I had the opportunity to see the SEER-H beta presentation given to customers today. It provides some exciting new functionality to help organizations better manage development and make the appropriate decisions.
Additionally the latest version helps the user deal with funding constraints…Â That is when the program estimated cost is more than constrained funding.
As requested by many customers, the Electro-Optical Sensor performance based plug-in now deals with lasers and works with numerous platforms in addition to unmanned space: manned space, manned and unmanned air, and missile. MTBF is also estimated. New technologies include:
- Refractive Telescopes
- Reflective Telescopes
- Reflective Telescopes with Scanning Mirror
- Linear/ Area InGaAs
- Area Bicolor HgCdTe
- Area Microbolometer
- Joule-Thompson with Pressure Vessel
- One-Axis Piezoelectric Actuator
The IC plug-in includes new RFIC technologies for mixed signal and MMIC.
If you are a SEER-H user and would like to be included in the beta program contact your SEER representative.
PS I hope all you Microbolometer engineers have fun with the new version 
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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SEER for Hardware, Electronics & Systems Video
See the introductory video on SEER-H for development, production, operations & support estimation, planning & control.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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SEER for Hardware, Electronics and Systems: Major Enhancements
I just sat in a review of the release candidate for SEER for hardware Electronics and Systems…Â Hats off to the development team.
I loved reviewing the enhancements to development staffing spreads and the new GANTT chart. Thanks to the development and all those at NASA and other SEER-H users who participated in the requirements for this exciting release.
And the ability to enter a funding profile for the program is a great help to those planning within government type programs. It even shows how schedule works against the funding profile.
Additionally for those using the Electro Optical Sensors plug-in….they have added new technologies, it works for many more platforms such as airborne, UAVs, etc. to its original space-borne modeling.  Exciting  how it provides reliability modeling as well like the rest of SEER-H.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Guidelines and Metrics for Assessing Space System Cost Estimates
I recently saw a presentation by Bernie Fox of Rand regarding guidelines and metrics for assessing space system cost estimates. Very interesting presentation (if you are interested in space systems)
The paper includes:
- Â Average costs and ranges for space vehicles, subsystems, and components for crosschecks.. Powerful Read more
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.