New Update To SEER for Hardware, Electronics & Systems Hits Beta
I had the opportunity to see the SEER-H beta presentation given to customers today. It provides some exciting new functionality to help organizations better manage development and make the appropriate decisions.
Additionally the latest version helps the user deal with funding constraints…Â That is when the program estimated cost is more than constrained funding.
As requested by many customers, the Electro-Optical Sensor performance based plug-in now deals with lasers and works with numerous platforms in addition to unmanned space: manned space, manned and unmanned air, and missile. MTBF is also estimated. New technologies include:
- Refractive Telescopes
- Reflective Telescopes
- Reflective Telescopes with Scanning Mirror
- Linear/ Area InGaAs
- Area Bicolor HgCdTe
- Area Microbolometer
- Joule-Thompson with Pressure Vessel
- One-Axis Piezoelectric Actuator
The IC plug-in includes new RFIC technologies for mixed signal and MMIC.
If you are a SEER-H user and would like to be included in the beta program contact your SEER representative.
PS I hope all you Microbolometer engineers have fun with the new version 
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
SEER for Hardware, Electronics & Systems Video
See the introductory video on SEER-H for development, production, operations & support estimation, planning & control.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
SEER for Hardware, Electronics and Systems: Major Enhancements
I just sat in a review of the release candidate for SEER for hardware Electronics and Systems…Â Hats off to the development team.
I loved reviewing the enhancements to development staffing spreads and the new GANTT chart. Thanks to the development and all those at NASA and other SEER-H users who participated in the requirements for this exciting release.
And the ability to enter a funding profile for the program is a great help to those planning within government type programs. It even shows how schedule works against the funding profile.
Additionally for those using the Electro Optical Sensors plug-in….they have added new technologies, it works for many more platforms such as airborne, UAVs, etc. to its original space-borne modeling.  Exciting  how it provides reliability modeling as well like the rest of SEER-H.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Guidelines and Metrics for Assessing Space System Cost Estimates
I recently saw a presentation by Bernie Fox of Rand regarding guidelines and metrics for assessing space system cost estimates. Very interesting presentation (if you are interested in space systems)
The paper includes:
- Â Average costs and ranges for space vehicles, subsystems, and components for crosschecks.. Powerful Read more
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Learning Curves and the Lore of The Slope
As I am editing the section of the ISPA parametric handbook course section i will be teaching in Saint Lewis I reviewed the great work of Galorath’s Evin Stump in learning curves. The following are some of Evin’s guidelines on slope. Learning curve can be a huge driver in cost estimating. Evin also has a wonderful paper on learning curves. I can provide upon request.
- Fit learning curves to historical data when available
- This is usually the best source, but not always
- Guidelines for use when historical data are not available:
- Operations that are fully automated tend to have slopes of 100%, or a value very close to that (no learning can happen)
- Operations that are entirely manual tend to have slopes in the vicinity of 70% (maximum learning can happen)
- If an operation is 75% manual and 25% automated, slopes in the vicinity of 80% are common.
- f it is 50% manual and 50% automated, expect about 85%.
- If it is 25% manual and 75% automated, expect about 90%.
- The average slope for the aircraft industry is about 85%.
- But there are departments in a typical aircraft factory that may depart substantially from that value.
- Shipbuilding slopes tend to run between 80 and 85%.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Estimating United Conference Papers Available On the Web
Follow this link to see some of the estimating united papers. it was a great conference, full of useful information. Talks encompassing cost estimating (cost estimation), value engineering, product design, software, and more.
And thanks again to all the speakers and attendees as well as the hospitality of the Manchester United Football (soccer) club. And the Galorath staff whose diligent efforts made this a great success. Presentations will be available for all to download for the next few months, then will be available as part of the Galorath corporate library.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
“Far Out” Estimating the Costs Of Satellites Far Into The Future
I had the opportunity to brief part of the space community on the latest release of the SEER Far Out model for cost estimating.  Far Out estimates the costs of satellite systems far out into the future. Why would anyone want such an estimate, you may ask. Estimates of systems in the future made today can change planning and approaches for future generations of technology.
This capability is of interest to:
- Military space asset planners
- Government agencies
- Commercial satellite producers
- Advanced concept designers
I have been excited about this project ever since its research began several years ago. It needed to deal with technology readiness levels (TRL), that is how available is the technology being used for systems developed in the future.
Technology readiness levels are interesting since, when they are low, estimates are extremely difficult and will, by nature, have a large range. For example, if you asked Thomas Edison in 1876  how much and how long it would take to develop the light bulb, he likely would have had no clue  before the basic carbon filament was invented. This was a TRL 1 problem.  He had no good way to know how long it would take him to get the most basic technology to a level that would be adequate for a product.
In 1979, once the carbon filament was developed to TRL 4, Mr. Edison would have had a much easier time providing development and production estimates. NASA’s technology readiness level scale follows:
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Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Better Products At better Margins 20 to 40% Cost Price Reduction
I was so impressed with the presentation by one of our speakers at the recent user conference that I bought a copy of his book. In his presentation(and also included on our site, galorath.com) he showed how he saved millions of euros in product costs using target costing, value analysis, and viable cost estimating and SEER.Â
It is wonderful to see forward thinkers applying SEER to save big costs as well as to estimate costs. In his presentation he substantiated savings of 20 to 40% cost price reduction (value improvement) And he does this not be grinding contractors but by working with them to provide substantial cost savings without impinging on their margins.
His book is well worth a read. The abstract follows:
“Many companies experience price pressure as a result of the global marketplace. The advance of technology creates many opportunities adding more innovative new features. Yet these opportunities also seem to drive up costs. How to end the resulting profit squeeze? Many aim for low labor cost countries as a solution.
Our approach is: Use Target Costing and Value Analysis.
Target costing sets allowable costs, derived from the value as perceived by customers, instead of price as a result of cost. Value analysis shows the way where the value of a product is, or where to reduce the cost. One of the key success factors in this approach is Cost Engineering and Cost Estimation. Another is multi disciplinary teamwork between marketers, developers, operations and suppliers.
The structured approach and open communication help achieve astonishing results, typically in the range of 20 to 40% cost price reduction or value improvement.
This book, or better Manual, describes how to apply and implement these methods in an organization, and how to involve suppliers efficiently and effectively via so called Design-in Workshops.”
 It can be purchased for 69 Euros at www.orenda.nl
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Risk / Uncertainty In SEER and Project Management
The question was asked “what probability should I estimate at” The answer follows: Risk is really uncertainty. So the question becomes how much uncertainty can or should I allow in my project plans. There are many approaches to this, depending on circumstances including:
What are the consequences of an overrun: Many large military type programs in the US budget at a 70% or 80% probability. These kinds of programs are generally large and not well defined at the early planning stages. They use the higher probability so they don’t have to go back for more budget or schedule as the program progresses. These programs will generally manage to a 50% probability, using the overage as a buffer for program growth.
Is The Project Fixed Price: Many programs that must bid on programs at fixed price will initially estimate at a probability like 80% so that they are covered if the project becomes more complicated than their initial looks. Of course competitive issues may cause them to bid lower.
Is this an in house Project: Many projects will plan at a 50% (most likely) probability. This allows them to have a tough but achievable plan and if the project runs into difficulty they can adjust.
I recommend managing to the 50% probability… Tough but achievable schedule and effort.
Some projects Estimate at the 20% Probability: This is a lower cost / schedule plan that can win a contract. Unfortunately these projects usually overrun. But they have taken calculated risks.
I once heard of a program that was thrilled that the 1% probability met with their hopes for the program. So they had a plan with a 99% probability of failure.
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Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide Released
Congratulations to the GAO team for releasing the “Cost Estimating and Assessment guide: Best Practices for developing and Managing Capital Program Costs”. This has been a work in progress for several years and represents a nearly superhuman effort on the part of the GAO team. Galorath is proud that is was able to assist in the guidebook development as well.
The guidebook may be downloaded here. And the press release from GAO follows:
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Project Prediction Infographic
