The Future of Software Analysis Measurement Webinar Featuring Bill Curtis, David Herron and Dan Galorath
We have some exciting events coming up this month with the first: The Future of Software Analysis and Measurement on October 12, 2011. I am really excited to share the virtual podium with Bill Curtis, Senior VP and Chief Scientist of CAST Corporation and with David Herron, David Consulting Groups VP of Knowledge Solution Services as moderator.
Bill and I both spoke at a software engineering conference last year and I got very excited about his work in software analysis with CAST. Besides Bill being an engaging speaker his content was very illuminating, covering issues of existing software, its complexity and reliability. He ev!–more–
en showed the number of latent defects in software of various languages. I have greatly summarized some of the a href=http://www.galorath.com/wp/software-defects-in-fielded-software-cast-analysis.phpsoftware defect conclusions /aelsewhere on this BLOG and CAST has been instrumental in recognizing and quantifying the a href=http://www.galorath.com/wp/500-billion-it-debt-for-deferred-maintenance.phptechnical debt/a
And with David Herron, one of the most knowledgeable people in the measurement community, this should be a do not miss event.
Details of the event follow as does a link to signup. Hope you can make it.
blockquotestrongThe Future of Software Analysis and Measurement/strong
October 12, 2011 8:00am Pacific, 11:00am Eastern, 4:00pm London
a href=http://www.castsoftware.com/news-events/event/future-of-sam?gad=glrClick this Webinar Link to sign up/a
Join us on October 12th to hear from an exciting lineup of experts on the Future of Software Analysis and Measurement: Dan Galorath, President CEO of Galorath Inc and Bill Curtis, SVP Chief Scientist, CAST will have an engaging discussion moderated by David Herron, VP, Knowledge Solution Services, David Consulting Group.
These industry veterans will share experiences with their client’s software development processes and discuss how Software Analysis and Measurement tools coupled with Parametric Estimation models can impact organizational performance through increased ROI, customer satisfaction and business value.
The panel will provide insightful and actionable steps that will make an immediate impact on your strategy including how to:
• Drive organization value by fueling Estimate and Measurement practices within an enterprise
• Build the funding rationale through proven economic impact models
• Establish the ROI from Estimate and Measurement practices and process/blockquote
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Computing the Value of Incomplete Software
IBM’s Murray Canter published an interesting article in the communications of the ACM covering calculating and improving the ROI in software systems. Murray shows how to compute the “investment value” of incomplete software and illustrates why it does have value showing how to compute the net present value and the return on investment of this in process work, using Monte Carlo simulation. Murray states two axioms:
- Costs and benefits occur over time, so their present values are found through NPV equations
- The future values of costs and benefits are random variables, described as a statistical distribution
I should note this requires a subscription to ACM digital content.
Its abstract states:
“Constrained by limited budgets, most enterprises find it essential to apply unprecedented business discipline to the business function of software and system delivery (SSD) across entire software and system life cycles. For this reason, the CIO, CTO, or VP of software or systems development may be under increased scrutiny from the corporate chief finance office (CFO). When conversing with the CFO, money talks, so only one of two sorts of conversations can take place: software and systems as cost center or software and systems as value-creation center.”
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Measurement and Providing Value to the Business ISMA Keynote 2011
Here is a copy of my keynote talk at the 2011 ISMA measurement conference, Measurement and Management and Business Value. The real point is the IT and measurement personnel have the information, knowledge and skill set to provide value to the business, far beyond the costs generate. But the information needs to be communicated in terms leaders can understand rather than the techie language we all think and speak in… AND if IT starts showing how it contributes to the business and becomes a profit center instead of a cost center IT will get more money to apply to more valuable things.
UPDATE: Someone also asked for a reference communicating the language of management. I believe this publication on business case analysis to be helpful in that regard.
PS In my talk I referred to software and measurement people as geeks. To many the term geek is a source of pride. One person in the talk was offended by being called a geek. My sincere apologies. However modern vernacular often defines a geek as a lover of technology, a software developer or someone with an intense love of mathematics. I consider myself a geek. And my friend Paul Glen makes his living by “leading geeks.”
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Why We Estimate Schedule & Cost
I stumbled across a working draft of an excellent document on my hard drive, produced, I believe, by a gentleman from Texas Instruments some years ago. I thought this list of why we estimate cost and schedule was excellent and still relevant.
Why We Estimate Schedule & Cost
- To scope proposed tasks
- To explore alternative system concepts
design to cost/budget
- To explore alternative design concepts
- To explore alternative proposals for enhancements and upgrades
- To identify key design elements
- To identify key process parameters
prioritize needs vs wants
- To identify key assumptions
- To identify and quantify uncertainties
- To identify tasks and their relationships
- To assess schedule feasibility
- To identify, allocate and schedule resources
- To assess an organization’s ability to perform within targeted costs
- To evaluate the consequences of internal and external constraints
- To establish achievable objectives
- To establish a basis for quality service
- To establish commitments
- To bound the risk against customer needs
- To balance levels of risk against customer needs
- To provide a basis of successful risk management
build vs buy analysis
- To prepare successful proposals
- To evaluate proposals from competing bidders
- To establish baselines for project tracking
enhance/reuse vs redesign analysis
- To predict life-cycle costs
- To predict returns on investments
- To provide information for establishing business and investment strategies
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Cost of Independent Software Verification & Validation (IV&V)
It has long been that IV&V (Independent Verification & Validation) was purchased by the pound, in other words spend what you want. That is beginning to change. Galorath’s Bob Hunt briefed a method for performing a cost estimate and return based on defects and estimating the optimal spend with ROI considerations for IV&V on critical software. Bob rightly claims this approach needs refinement but it is a great start. Here are the basics:
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Estimating the Cost of Advanced Composites Materials in Products
Its funny how we take some things for granted. For example we assumed everyone in the composites industry knew of our work in the Composites Affordability Initiative, and the advanced composites capabilities in our SEER models for cost, schedule, risk and reliability. Yet someone recently told us they nearly didn’t find us during an Internet search. SEER won at least two awards for this work, one with SAMPI as the most innovative product of the year, and another as one of the most valuable things to come out of the composites affordability initiative.
The Composites Affordability Initiative (CAI) Team was established in 1996 by the Air Force Manufacturing Technology (ManTech) Division of the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). When ManTech began CAI, its charter was to bring down the costs associated with the manufacture of composite structures, considered essential to high-performance aircraft advancement. What is now called the SEER Aerostructures plug-in is used by major aerospace manufacturers around the world. Specifically, the Aerostructures Plug-in for SEER-MFG includes over 25 existing and emerging composite fabrication and assembly processes, providing a method for quickly and accurately determining and evaluating costs of alternate designs and manufacturing processes. It enables an increased number of trade studies in a shorter period of time, resulting in cost reductions by the early identification of the most affordable composite structural concepts with greater dependability than previously possible. Additionally, the Detailed Composites capability in SEER-MFG was developed in conjunction with Airbus. Part shapes can be described in detail, including build-ups and cores, materials and resins, the material cutting process, the bagging process, consumable materials, hot-ply forming, curing, and trimming. Tooling manufacture costs and inspection costs using non-destructive testing techniques are included in the model.
Many examples of major cost savings have been noted using SEER and its advanced composites capability. For example ATK saves over a person year using SEER advanced composites capability and this doesn’t count the cost savings from choosing the most affordable approaches.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Establishing the ROI on Software Through Examination of Total Ownership Costs
I get so excited when an organization does a true business case and evaluates cost versus benefits of a software / IT system along with the risks. . Part of the key is thinking and analysing and communicating like a C llevel person rather than like a technical person. Here is a link to the PowerPoint I did a webinar on this topic during July 2011 Establishing the ROI on Software Through Examination of Total Ownership Costs. The full recorded webinar is available on the ITMPI site as well.
One might say that business case analysis is finance 101 and I would agree… Sometimes uncommon success is achieved by doing common things uncommonly well.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Original Function Point Paper
Here is (one of) the original papers on Function Points, circa 1983.
I love the simple definition of function points in the paper: “…essentially the weight sum of the number of inputs, outputs, master files, inquiries provided to or generated by the software.”
Today function points are a widely used method of defining software size or scope. Many organizations use them for estimating. Many also use them for executive oversight of software development using metrics such as hours per function point and number of defects per function point.
It is interesting to note that one of the major findings was the high correlation between lines of code and function points and the work pointing to Halstead’s software science and their relation to function points. He demonstrated a correlation from .854 to .997 of lines of code to function points in this paper.
It is also a walk down memory lane for me. My foray into estimating, after my project being killed due to my estimate, was Halstead’s software science.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
296 Billion Dollars in DOD Cost Overruns: 2009 GAO Weapons Systems Assessments
The full document GAO assessment of Weapons Systems is an update to the 2007 assessment.
It states “ Our review this year indicates that while the overall performance of weapon system programs is still poor; there have been some modest improvements in DOD’s acquisition outcomes: total cost growth on this year’s portfolio of 96 major defense acquisition programs has decreased marginally compared to the 2007 portfolio.”
Programs started in recent years have more knowledge about technology and design at key points in the acquisition process.
- Cumulative cost overruns are almost $296 billion in 2009 dollars
- 64 of 96 active defense programs reported increases in their projected cost since their initial cost estimate.
Sources of the problem:
While there are different ways to measure the extent and nature of cost growth, there is agreement between DOD and us on the sources of the problem:
(1) POOR REQUIREMENTS AND KNOWLEDGE: programs are started with poor foundations and inadequate knowledge for developing realistic cost estimates
(2) ARTIFICALLY LOW COST & SCHEDULE ESTIMATES WITH LOW TECHNOLOGY READINESS LEVELS: programs move forward with artificially low cost estimates, optimistic schedules and assumptions, immature technologies and designs, and fluid requirements
(3) REQUIREMENTS VOLITILITY: changing or excessive requirements cause cost growth
(4) REQUIREMENTS GROWTH and INADEQUATE VALUE CONSIDERATION OF CHANGES: an imbalance between wants and needs contributes to budget and program instability.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
10 Laws of Software Productivity
I have been teaching these productivity laws for years and these effects can be modeled in our SEER-SEM model. But the real point is you cant just mandate software completion dates and effort without paying the consequences. Consequences included technical debt, failing applications, unfortunate limited functionality (this is where agile can help in many situations by building the most critical functionality first) and more. Much of this is based on entropy (decreased productivity) as team sizes increase.
Some people make a case that there is no entropy or even more efficiencies as software gets bigger. When analysis is completed this is generally the result of natural reuse or copy / paste, more efficient reintegration and retest, and reduced rework. The 10 laws are: Read more
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Project Prediction Infographic
