SEER Estimate By Comparison Professional Released To All Users
The SEER Estimate By Comparison (formerly SEER-AccuScope) comes in two flavors, the core and the professional. The professional version allows estimation of anything, such as
- total system cost
- software size
- hardware weight
- system value
- server capacity
- best choice from a set of alternatives
This new feature incorporates sophisticated mathematics for uncertainty and estimation.
For the first year Galorath is providing the professional version to all SEER users. Beginning the second year the professional functionality will be available as an upgrade.
Galorath recommends using an industrial strength database for an enterprise but will allow Microsoft Access for simple desktop installations.
This feature began shipping with the release of SEER for Software 7.3, in October, 2008.
GAO Knowledge Points
A valuable GAO document discusses knowledge points.. the certainty that systems are appropriate. “Because military programs tend to start product development with more unknowns, it takes them additional time, sometimes until well after production begins, to actually discover and capture enough solid information to attain full product knowledge and thereby virtually eliminate risk.” Read more
Risk On IT Infrastructure Projects
Identifying the risk on IT infrastructure projects is a key to viable cost & schedule analysis. While working on risk identification I ran across this list which is a decent starting point for IT Infrastructure risks. I will post enhancements to this risk list as they are determined:
From http://www.projectmanagement.net.au/infrastructure_risks
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Schedule |
Unscheduled changes/delays |
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Personnel turning up without notification |
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Non-conformance - not starting/failures |
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Reliance on external sub-contractors/organisations |
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Technical |
Unplanned/unapproved changes |
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Disasters |
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New design not working |
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Version control problems |
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Hardware failure |
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Software failure |
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Incorrect image/version loaded |
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Integration with existing systems |
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Personnel |
Changes of personnel - CUSTOMER/Vendor |
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Lack of skills/knowledge |
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Not aware of policy/procedures |
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Logistical/Equipment |
Supply availability |
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Physical storage of equipment on arrival - security |
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Contingency equipment availability |
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User |
Not aware of Vendor schedule/activities |
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Inability to perform core business activities |
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Inability to perform non-core business activities |
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User expectations |
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Confusion about CUSTOMER/Vendor responsibilities |
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Loss of data |
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Data not moved to C:\userid |
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Project Management |
Lack of detailed site information |
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Lack of reporting |
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Unaware of Customer site requirements |
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Absence of quality control/management process built into plan |
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Absence of issue log/change request log/configuration management log |
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Role confusion |
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Lack of issue identification - trends |
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Inconsistent project documentation |
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Banking and Mergers and IT… Oh My
Watching the chaos going on in the economy, the overnight mergers, the bankruptcies, and other tragedies in the US and in the world makes me shiver thinking about how all these IT systems are going to work together, or work at all. I heard that the value in some of these organizations is their IT infrastructure (we have said for years that banks are big IT companies with money as their product…. this bears it out) This is the time when SEER for Software and SEER for IT can really help save the day with project and operations planning in this consolidation environment.
Understand the costs of data conversion, how many help desk people will be needed to support the newer, bigger organization, how to dispose of unneeded assets. And having open eyes of the cost and schedule risks are essential.
I saw an article today stating that the current economic issues have stalled 2009 IT planning. This is not the time for stalling. This is the time for increased planning and risk management. I realize stalling buys time to see how things shake out. But planning for alternate scenarios can be extremely effective as well.
Estimating Project Risk Using Scenarios (Without Monte Carlo)
I was at a costing syposium today where Paul Garvey of Mitre gave a talk on doing risk analysis without using Monte Carlo or other statistical techniques. Paul, one of the gurus of statistical risk and the author on the definitive book on cost risk: “Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis”, said after 25 years of dealing with Monte Carlo and all the mistakes the non-gurus make in setting up Monte Carlo analysis he had determined it is prudent to use a non statistical technique. Read more
The Risk of Statistical Risk
I was at the SCEA (Society of Cost Estimation and Analysis) conference this week. Some of the buzz was about risk, both talks given at the conference and the ongoing risk arguments. For several years the risk gurus have been lining up to show how to do more robust risk analysis. While I would not say they are getting carried away I would say i get concerned with the differences of opinion and the numerous options provided by smart people.
One of my heroes in risk, Dr. Steve Book or MCR points out that risk analysis should include correlation.
One of my other risk heroes, Evin Stump (of Galorath), points out that defining correlation properly for a work breakdown of any size can involve of thousands of correlation entries. For example a 500 element WBS has 124, 500 correlations and a 1000 element WBS has 499,000 correlations. Dr. Book doesn’t point that out but he does say “use .2″ That solves the hundreds of thousands of correlations issue. But according to Evin that doesn’t provide more accurate risk analysis. Evin points out “if two or more risky items are not statistically independent, a Monte Carlo simulation that fails to account for their correlation will underestimate their combined risk” He then asks “what if you overestimate correlation?” Hmmm could it be that .2 correlations could overestimate some systems. Evin also points out how difficult it is to actually determine correlation…. For example, what is the correlation between a light bulb and a light bulb on/off switch… Probably near zero but most people would be tempted to assign a high correlation. Read more
Risk Analysis & Conference In the Netherlands
I spent this week with our international group… at two conferences (ISPA / SCEA and SSCAG) in the Netherlands.
There were several excellent papers given by Galorath people as well as many SEER users.
Risk analysis has always been one of my favorite features of SEER. And as the risk analyis community matured the risk gurus asked for the ability to fine tune the risk methodology. I was pleased to hear the results of a risk survey and to see how many people use SEER’s internal risk features. SEER includes internal risk analysis and, for those who want to fine tune risk even more, SEER has an interface to Oracle’s Crystal Ball. The Crystal Ball interface allows users to specify more specific information regarding correlations and other risk details. The Oracle people were also at this conference and were very pleased with the SEER use of Crystal Ball. How are you using SEER’s risk features? Do you use SEER’s Crystal Ball interface?
