Guidelines and Metrics for Assessing Space System Cost Estimates
I recently saw a presentation by Bernie Fox of Rand regarding guidelines and metrics for assessing space system cost estimates. Very interesting presentation (if you are interested in space systems)
The paper includes:
- Â Average costs and ranges for space vehicles, subsystems, and components for crosschecks.. Powerful Read more
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Estimating United Conference Papers Available On the Web
Follow this link to see some of the estimating united papers. it was a great conference, full of useful information. Talks encompassing cost estimating (cost estimation), value engineering, product design, software, and more.
And thanks again to all the speakers and attendees as well as the hospitality of the Manchester United Football (soccer) club. And the Galorath staff whose diligent efforts made this a great success. Presentations will be available for all to download for the next few months, then will be available as part of the Galorath corporate library.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Risk / Uncertainty In SEER and Project Management
The question was asked “what probability should I estimate at” The answer follows: Risk is really uncertainty. So the question becomes how much uncertainty can or should I allow in my project plans. There are many approaches to this, depending on circumstances including:
What are the consequences of an overrun: Many large military type programs in the US budget at a 70% or 80% probability. These kinds of programs are generally large and not well defined at the early planning stages. They use the higher probability so they don’t have to go back for more budget or schedule as the program progresses. These programs will generally manage to a 50% probability, using the overage as a buffer for program growth.
Is The Project Fixed Price: Many programs that must bid on programs at fixed price will initially estimate at a probability like 80% so that they are covered if the project becomes more complicated than their initial looks. Of course competitive issues may cause them to bid lower.
Is this an in house Project: Many projects will plan at a 50% (most likely) probability. This allows them to have a tough but achievable plan and if the project runs into difficulty they can adjust.
I recommend managing to the 50% probability… Tough but achievable schedule and effort.
Some projects Estimate at the 20% Probability: This is a lower cost / schedule plan that can win a contract. Unfortunately these projects usually overrun. But they have taken calculated risks.
I once heard of a program that was thrilled that the 1% probability met with their hopes for the program. So they had a plan with a 99% probability of failure.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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SEER Estimate By Comparison Professional Released To All Users
The SEER Estimate By Comparison (formerly SEER-AccuScope) comes in two flavors, the core and the professional. The professional version allows estimation of anything, such as
- total system cost
- software size
- hardware weight
- system value
- server capacity
- best choice from a set of alternatives
This new feature incorporates sophisticated mathematics for uncertainty and estimation.
For the first year Galorath is providing the professional version to all SEER users. Beginning the second year the professional functionality will be available as an upgrade.
Galorath recommends using an industrial strength database for an enterprise but will allow Microsoft Access for simple desktop installations.
This feature began shipping with the release of SEER for Software 7.3, in October, 2008.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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SEER Does Systems of Systems (SOS) Estimating
SEER-SEM works hand in hand with SEER for Hardware, Electronics * Systems (SEER-H)  to estimate systems and systems of system (SOS), that is the integration of major systems together. For example, a squad car with a fire truck and a foot policeman’s GOS, three systems that need to be integrated and tested together. This capability works for hardware/software integration or just software intensive systems of systems.Â
Our VP of development, received an email from a customer who was concerned by the statement in a DACS paper that SEER doesn’t have the capabilities to estimate systems of systems. Upon internal review we believe it was a simple misunderstanding by the authors.
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Dr. Denton Tarbet of Galorath added   I recall at the PSM conference in 06 (Vail) that we had a working session on System of System estimating.  Leaders from Lockheed, USC, and a software lead from NGC and Boeing was in the round table discussion.  I know that at the time all in the discussion indicated they did not see a significant difference in a systems integration problem, except that for a “mega-project†you would have to be concerned about the major costs related to integration and testing of such a complex set of interfaces between what in reality were major systems on their own.   Our SLC supports the estimation and analysis of a Mega-project .  it would be a complex analysis to account for rollups of major systems into a mega-system.
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PS.. the text of this BLOG disapeared for reaasons unknown. The author recreated the blog but it is not the same text as the original entry.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.