Early Estimating Is Like Martial Arts
I have been studying martial arts for the past year and a half. I am not great but I am committed.
I was taking a private lesson recently. I have been struggling during drills. While I execute correctly much of the time, each time I execute a move I start analyzing it, even while I am executing the following move.
This proves to be a counter-productive approach. I will often make mistakes in the following move because I am spending all my brain power thinking about what I just did right or wrong.
Estimating can have the same issues. Data from past programs is useful. But we must look forward as well. Differences in technology, requirements, program volatility, developers, and much more make just looking at the past a dangerous proposition.
I still recall a magazine that once wrote of SEER “The journey is its own reward” meaning that the act of thinking about the program being estimated and understanding the range is issues and opportunities makes the program better and the estimates more viable.
Each estimate shoudl look forward to what the program’s issues will be in addition to looking back to prior programs. Yes, data is important, as indicated in the 10 step process. And so is obtaining some understanding of the range of possibilities of the new system.
The following screenshot from SEER Metrics & Benchmarking illustrates the point. After some analysis A new system is much more costly than nearly all the systems with similar characteristics. Had we just used data and not done the analysis we would have severely underestimated the new system. The Journey is its own reward.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Issues in Software Measurement & Estimation ISMA 2010
Measurement is a wonderful thing. However measurement without standards and definition can be worse than no measurement at all. This paper which I will be presenting at the 2010 ISMA conference begins the attack, highlighting the need and proposing that additional work commences in standards for estimation and measurement. Software Estimation and Measurement 2010
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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SEER 2010 International User Conference Papers Are Available
http://www.galorath.com/index.php/library/estimating-united-conference/
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Interesting ROI Spreadsheet for Software Process
Shows ROI of inspections, PSP, tsp, and more http://davidfrico.com/roi-book.htm
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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New “Bid To Win” Book Available For Download
Galorath’s Evin Stump and SEER customer Bill Vitaliano wrote an excellent book on preparing winning bids. While Evin did this on his own time, he has given Galorath permission to distribute it.
I am pleased to recommend this book covering the right things to produce winning proposals. It saddens me when people equate price to win with lying or low-balling since price to win can be a viable engineering approach for defining the best product or service for a client while ensuring it is also affordable. While this book is written with larger proposals in mind I believe many of its principles are applicable to both bidding and internal development. Bid To Win Book
In addition to the basic book, the authors have written a bid to win novel, Saving SEIC: An Industrial Love Story, to bring the points home (if you have read “The Goal,” you will be familiar with this approach.)
For a succinct summary of the costing part of price to win, I also recommend Galorath’s Bob Hunt’s price to win briefing found elsewhere on this site.
PS: I am at the APMP conference where I heard a rave review of the book and the process. Hats off to both Evin and Bill.
PS2: Someone asked me today why they didn’t charge for the book. Evin said they just wanted to make it available to the community.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Live From UK Williams Formula 1: How SEER Made IRS Projects Successful
The US Internal Revenue Service used SEER for Software and SEER for IT to plan a major portfolio upgrade. They were able to catalog different types of systems in SEER-IT. Mitchell said if they could have done the estimates without SEER (and he didn’t think they could), it would have taken at least 10 times the effort.
This presentation will be available on www.galorath.com in a few days.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Live from UK Williams Formula 1: Euroclear Bank IT Support With SEER
SEER has become the keystone of Euroclear Bank’s project review process. They implemented independent estimation in addition to the project leaders’ SEER estimate and are providing support to negotiations with outsourcers.
Initially they had difficulties since project managers could not understand function points.
IT management then mandated SEER for all projects and also mandated an independent estimate.
They now have both internal function point counters and outsourced function point consultants.
Today the external team can explain the function points to the project leaders.
Euroclear found the following were the key drivers in their projects and limit usage to these in most cases:
- Size
- Team capabilities
- Location of IT management
- Development platform (knowledge base)
They are now using SEER for estimates and for monitoring project growth, at the end of the design phase and at the end of the project. This now allows them to estimate based on high level requirements.
They also collect software key performance indicators monthly.
Their lessons learned include:
- Start with a few parameters. Refine later.
- Calibrate function point counts and SEER
- Collect Final Actuals
- Must have management support
This presentation will be available on www.galorath.com in a few days
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Live From UK Williams Formula 1: The Virtual Composites Company
Kevin Potter discussed how he teaches students using SEER within the aerospace engineering department of University of Bristol.
They use SEER in design project work where students design an airplane. They use SEER to quantify affordability as well as what are the cost drivers of the engineering work they do.
He pointed out how SEER for Manufacturing is really a design for manufacturing (DFM) application, allowing affordability trade-offs for a variety of designs.
He focused on composites materials. He pointed out that many in composites have over-emphasized the impact of touch labor versus other components of cost.
This briefing will be available on www.galorath.com in the next few days.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Software Staff Size Still Impacts Productivity: Brooks Law Lives!
When drawing conclusions from data it is important to analyse all the relevant considerations and not just one variable. For example, the first chart “effective productivity versus effective functions” shows a slight increase in productivity as the project gets bigger. Some people have jumped to conclusions stating that bigger projects are more productive. However, when looking at staff levels the fallacy becomes apparent.
Of course it is important to define what productivity is. If someone changes a 10,000 function point system and adds 5, the productivity is not 10,005. The effective productivity id based on the new functionality and the work involved in redesign, reimplementation, and retest, forming an effective productivity. Some studies leave out such detail.
The second chart, from the same data-set, shows that as the staff gets bigger the productivity gets lower, exactly what Brooks Law stated.
Note this analysis was performed using a portion of our database that includes function points, and effective function points as well a effort and staff.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Cost Growth In Weapons Systems Circa 1982
There is often a lot that can be learned from history. I ran across a 1982 paper entitled Cost Growth in Weapons System: Recent Experience And Possible Remedies cost growth for projects in all agencies reported as of September 30, 1981, was 82 percent; that for defense projects was 79 percent. Reviewing the recommendations for containing growth could be of interest to those looking at the new acquisition reform (WSARA)
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.