The Estimate Maturity Model Can Improve Project Success
Dan Galorath briefed the Galorath estimate maturity model, a method of evaluating where the organization is in estimation practice and where it wants / needs to go.
This paper discusses poor estimates and their impact on projects as well as how to improve estimate maturity as a means to more successful projects.
The presentation concludes:
- Estimation and estimation process are core for successful software projects
- Improving estimate maturity can improve your project success rate
- Gartner says even SEER use improves estimate vs. actual variance by 50%
- A good guess is not a substitute for a viable estimate
- Looking at total ownership cost can change project prospective
- Much of the industry is at level 1 in estimation maturity
- Process initiatives like CMMI require:
- Estimation & planning, monitoring & control, measurement & analysis
- IT Infrastructure and IT Services are significant costs and must be estimated in addition to software development and maintenance
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Controlling Software Projects: Development Is Only Job One: Chicago SPIN Nov 12 2009
Dan will be speaking at the Chi10 stecago SPIN on November 12, 2009 on the topic of controlling software projects. Estimation, planning, control, metrics, and maintenance fo a total ownership cost view wil be discussed.
The presentation is here: Chicago SPIN November 2009 Galorath Presentation Controlling Software Projects Development Is Only Job 1
PS Dan looks forward to his short visit to Chicago, his home town. And is going to carefully avoid pizza, hot dogs, and Italian beef while he is there.
The flyer follows:
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Estimate Review Checklists
I was asked today for a SEER-SEM 10 Step estimate review checklist. Of course there are checklists in my book:
105 – 107; Step Seven: Estimate Validation and Review
108 – 109; Estimate Review Activities
117 – 128; Estimate Process Questionnaire
432 – 434; SEER-SEM Estimation Process Step 7: Review, Verify and Validate Estimate
And a blog that includes some of the checklists
There are also a number of other useful checklists:
- Bob Park, while with the SEI, developed this checklist. It remains useful even today.
- Galorath has an estimate assessment document based on a prerelease of the 10 Step book.
- Galorath has an additional document available to SEER users upon request.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Estimation Plus Process and Measurement Rigor Yields More Successful Projects: SEER and Tracer
It has been rewarding working with the Computer Aid  (CAI) people, the people who sponsor the ITMPI in tying together best practice approaches (SEER for Estimating, Planning and Control and Computer Aid’s Tracer for metrics, reporting and root level management). I am always inspired when I hear the CAI people explain their process and success in fixed price software development and maintenance. They do it by a number of methods and processes. But the one that always makes me the most excited is their Tracer software. Tracer allows root level tracking of tasks and progress, providing near real time feedback regarding project health and status and individual task performance. I think it is wonderful that they have made their solution available to the industry at large.  It is much like the factory floor real time feedback in manufacturing, applied to software. From CAI’s web site is the following description which describes estimating effort, cost, and process tracking.:
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Final Version of the GAO Cost Guide
It appears that this is the final version of the GAO cost estimating guide which provides guidance on preparing viable cost estimates both early in the process and throughout the life cycle. Congratulations to the team. This is a great contribution to the industry and can, if used as intended create more successful projects. I especially appreciate the focus on preparing a viable estimate of cost, schedule, etc. then applying earned value management (EVM) to that. So often, in the past we have seen a chasm between those that generated estimates and the EVM people. These are two sides of the same coin.  The introduction follows:
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Dan Speaking at Detroit CAI Seminar
I will be speaking one estimating process yielding project success at the Computer Aid Seminar in Detroit On April 30, 2009.
My message will be that spending time on estimation and planning yields more successful projects and fewer project surprises. And I will go through the 10 step process. Additionally I will introduce Galorath’s estimation maturity model.
I am excited to speak along with Ed Yourdon, Larry Dribin, and CAI’s Bob Longhorn.
It should be a great event. I have participated in these with Larry and Bob in the past, and I am a lifetime fan of Ed.
I believe we will be doing the same genre in Toronto later in the year.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Why Do Estimation Webinar With Geoff Hewson and Dan Galorath
I have had a good time developing a webinar with Geoff Hewson of the Software Productivity Center. It should be very informative and hopefully entertaining as well.
Register by clicking
Date and time: Tuesday, March 10, 2009 8:30 am
Pacific Daylight Time (GMT -07:00, San Francisco)
Description: Software estimation, planning and control can be keystones to successful projects. Companies that estimate strategically are able to zero in their projects so they deliver to business targets. Despite this many treat estimation as a black art or worse – a guess.
Dan Galorath and Geoff Hewson will explain the key concepts that drive successful software estimation in support of planning and managing successful software development and maintenance projects:
1. Decisions and deliverables needed to design estimation procedures tuned to your organization.
2. Guidance in setting up the infrastructure you need to realize the most benefit from your new estimation capabilities.
3. Establishing a “negotiating culture” to allow you to deal effectively with the results of your estimates and focus projects on business success.
SEER for Software concepts will support the discussion.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Software Estimation Much More Complicated Than Some Perceive
How many times have we been asked to submit a 5 minute or off the cuff estimate to stakeholders… Then be held to that estimate even though we missed the complexity in our haste.. Of course if we didn’t prepare an estimate until everything was known the estimate would be of little value. That is why uncertainty must be part of the process and off the cuff, manual estimations should be avoided when possible.
I thought these diagrams showing the perceived simplicity of the software estimation process versus complexities in the software cost estimation process were very interesting.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Step Ten: Track Project throughout Development
Refining Estimates throughout Project
Estimating software size, cost, and schedule should be an ongoing process. Preliminary estimates may be required to bid a job or to initiate the development process, or you may need to conduct a cost-benefit or return-on-investment (ROI) analysis to evaluate a project’s feasibility.
Preliminary estimates are the hardest to develop and are the least accurate because of the incomplete nature of the information available and the other factors discussed.
You can improve the accuracy of a preliminary estimate by using the sizing methodology identified in Step 4 or by using two different estimation techniques and having your analysts normalize the differences. There will still be a significant risk in using the preliminary estimate to structure a project or to evaluate risk in the early stages of a project life cycle.
Once a project has started, you will need to complete more detailed estimates to accurately plan the project and throughout the conduct of the project you will need to monitor the actual effort and duration of tasks and/or phases against planned values to ensure you have the project under control.
Summary
Software cost estimation is a difficult process but a necessary part of a successful software development. You can help ensure useful results by adopting a process that is standardized and repeatable. Several of the steps we have discussed, particularly those that do not result directly in the production of the estimate (Steps 1, 6, and 7) are often deferred or, worse still, not performed at all, often for what appear to be good reasons such as a lack of adequate time or resources or a reluctance to face the need to devise a plan if a problem is detected. Sometimes you simply have more work than you can handle and such steps don’t seem absolutely necessary. Sometimes management is reluctant to take these steps, not because the resources are not available, but because managers do not want to really know what they may learn as a result of scoping their estimates, quantifying and analyzing risks, or validating their estimates. This can be a costly attitude, because in reality every shortcut results in dramatic increases in project risks.
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Step Nine: Document Estimate and Lessons Learned
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Step Nine: Document Estimate and Lessons Learned
Each time you complete an estimate and again at the end of the software development, you should document the pertinent information that constitutes the estimate and record the lessons you learned. By doing so, you will have evidence that your process was valid and that you generated the estimate in good faith, and you will have actual results with which to calibrate your estimation models. Be sure to document any missing or incomplete information and the risks, issues, and problems that the process addressed and any complications that arose. Also document all the key decisions made during the conduct of the estimate and their results and the effects of the actions you took. Finally, describe and document the dynamics that occurred during the process, such as the interactions of your estimation team, the interfaces with your clients, and trade-offs you had to make to address issues identified during the process. Cost models, which are based on the actual costs of past projects, can be calibrated and their accuracy can be demonstrated by comparing the costs of your current estimates with both past project data and the actual costs of your completed project, thereby adjusting the model input parameters to improve future accuracy.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.