Galorath / DCG IT Estimation For Business Value and Project Success Clinic
Here are the slides from the Galorath / David Consulting Group estimating clinic held in New York City. There were interesting discussions encompassing dealing with impossible demands, understanding risk and risk management, sizing, and a number of other topics. Note: The Galorath slides and the DCG slides are combined in the one PDF file.
Concepts of IT providing business value to the organization were also discussed in detail.
Thanks to all who attended and especially to Mike Harris and David Herren for their insights.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Data Driven Estimating Part 1: How Data Feeds The Estimation Modeling Paradigm at Galorath / SEER
Lee Fischman’s article on data driven estimating follows:
Summary
- Galorath constantly collects data from many sources, both public and private.
- Data must be processed to be useful, using methods that Galorath routinely and openly discusses.
- In addition to data, numerous other sources play an important role in maintaining the accuracy of SEER for Software estimates.
- As important as data is, innovation is equally so. The core SEER model has been improved and extended over time, and new features have been added, to make estimating ever easier, more applicable, and more accurate.
- Data Driven Estimating Part 2: Data Driven Estimating Features in SEER for Software is available upon request.
What Does It Mean To Be Data Driven?
These days software estimation vendors are competing to have the largest repositories of completed software projects, and the customer is encouraging this competition, which is fundamentally good. However, there is more to insuring the accuracy of an estimation model than just having a lot of data points sitting on the proverbial shelf.
Where Data Comes From
The first question asked of a vendor is, where does your data on completed software projects come from? Early on, much of it came from Government agencies, who in turn collected from contractors. Over time, public sources have emerged that contain voluntarily submitted information from private companies worldwide; the prime example of this being the International Software Benchmark Standards Group (ISBSG). Galorath has obtained software project data over the years through numerous private and public sources. The data comprises many thousands of total observations that have passed data quality tests. Most observations contain size and effort information, thousands more do not contain all the desired fields.
What is Done with Data
While plain-vanilla data can reveal a lot, it has its limitations. For this reason, Galorath maintains extensive surveillance of industry trends, including third-party analyses. These can reveal insight into changes in modern practices such as Agile development, the productivity gained by the latest IDEs, and many other ongoing evolutions. The company is a member of numerous industry consortiums – in part to obtain access to the latest research available.
At Galorath, once data is acquired, it is processed into a form that is usable for analysis. This involves normalization so that the data points are comparable, i.e., include the same activities from early requirements through testing and the same types of labor, including programmers, testers, management, etc… We also try to find and understand outliers those projects that are so different that they are not useful. At numerous conferences and in webinars, we have described our normalization process and compared our results against other methods.
Using the collected data we update SEER for Software in several ways. A key method is to run our model against various stratifications (specific subsets such as Business and Client-Server) that are defined by SEER for Software’s knowledge bases. Simply put, we compare the models estimates to observed outcomes. Based on these results, knowledge bases are re-calibrated when necessary. In fact, data sets are not uniform in terms of the information observed. Some completed project records may include peak staff, development activities, and software language used, while others don’t. We account for this by performing a separate analysis of various factors: language productivity, development proportions, productivity variation by application or development method, and so on. These analyses are done first, and the model is adjusted, before gross analysis is begun.
SEER for Software’s core model is configured to a particular circumstance by a set of knowledge bases, and its these knowledge bases that are calibrated based on new industry information and trends. Each knowledge base is defined in terms of a set of parameters, some visible to users, and others normally hidden. When a knowledge base is updated the visible parameters, such as Modern Development Practices, may be modified and some underlying calibration factors may be adjusted. These knowledge base adjustments occur every few years as evidence warrants.
Innovative Features Support the Data Driven Approach
The overall evolution of SEER for Software is best called innovation-driven as well as data-driven. While data analysis is a very important part of how we maintain SEER for Software, we also continually enhance the model’s ability to estimate real world projects. These enhancements have often been industry firsts: flexible project staffing, off-the-shelf (COTS) integration modeling, translation of estimates into detailed project plans having intricate interdependencies, extended schedule and small schedule estimating, cloud computing solutions, to name only a few. All these innovations, alongside data-driven updates, serve an important role in insuring the model’s precision.
Note Data Driven Estimating Part 2: Data Driven Estimating Features in SEER for Software is available upon request via info@galorath.com Additional information may be found at www.galorath.com
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
The Estimate Maturity Model Can Improve Project Success
Dan Galorath briefed the Galorath estimate maturity model, a method of evaluating where the organization is in estimation practice and where it wants / needs to go.
This paper discusses poor estimates and their impact on projects as well as how to improve estimate maturity as a means to more successful projects.
The presentation concludes:
- Estimation and estimation process are core for successful software projects
- Improving estimate maturity can improve your project success rate
- Gartner says even SEER use improves estimate vs. actual variance by 50%
- A good guess is not a substitute for a viable estimate
- Looking at total ownership cost can change project prospective
- Much of the industry is at level 1 in estimation maturity
- Process initiatives like CMMI require:
- Estimation & planning, monitoring & control, measurement & analysis
- IT Infrastructure and IT Services are significant costs and must be estimated in addition to software development and maintenance
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Controlling Software Projects: Development Is Only Job One: Chicago SPIN Nov 12 2009
Dan will be speaking at the Chicago SPIN on November 12, 2009 on the topic of controlling software projects. Estimation, planning, control, metrics, and maintenance for a total ownership cost view will be discussed.
The presentation is here: Chicago SPIN November 2009 Galorath Presentation Controlling Software Projects Development Is Only Job 1
PS Dan looks forward to his short visit to Chicago, his home town. And is going to carefully avoid pizza, hot dogs, and Italian beef while he is there.
The flyer follows:
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Estimate Review Checklists
I was asked today for a SEER-SEM 10 Step estimate review checklist. Of course there are checklists in my book:
105 – 107; Step Seven: Estimate Validation and Review
108 – 109; Estimate Review Activities
117 – 128; Estimate Process Questionnaire
432 – 434; SEER-SEM Estimation Process Step 7: Review, Verify and Validate Estimate
And a blog that includes some of the checklists
There are also a number of other useful checklists:
- Bob Park, while with the SEI, developed this checklist. It remains useful even today.
- Galorath has an estimate assessment document based on a prerelease of the 10 Step book.
- Galorath has an additional document available to SEER users upon request.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Estimation Plus Process and Measurement Rigor Yields More Successful Projects: SEER and Tracer
It has been rewarding working with the Computer Aid (CAI) people, the people who sponsor the ITMPI in tying together best practice approaches (SEER for Estimating, Planning and Control and Computer Aid’s Tracer for metrics, reporting and root level management). I am always inspired when I hear the CAI people explain their process and success in fixed price software development and maintenance. They do it by a number of methods and processes. But the one that always makes me the most excited is their Tracer software. Tracer allows root level tracking of tasks and progress, providing near real time feedback regarding project health and status and individual task performance. I think it is wonderful that they have made their solution available to the industry at large. It is much like the factory floor real time feedback in manufacturing, applied to software. From CAI’s web site is the following description which describes estimating effort, cost, and process tracking.:
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Final Version of the GAO Cost Guide
It appears that this is the final version of the GAO cost estimating guide which provides guidance on preparing viable cost estimates both early in the process and throughout the life cycle. Congratulations to the team. This is a great contribution to the industry and can, if used as intended create more successful projects. I especially appreciate the focus on preparing a viable estimate of cost, schedule, etc. then applying earned value management (EVM) to that. So often, in the past we have seen a chasm between those that generated estimates and the EVM people. These are two sides of the same coin. The introduction follows:
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Dan Speaking at Detroit CAI Seminar
I will be speaking on estimating process yielding project success at the Computer Aid Seminar in Detroit On April 30, 2009.
My message will be that spending time on estimation and planning yields more successful projects and fewer project surprises. And I will go through the 10 step process. Additionally I will introduce Galorath’s estimation maturity model.
I am excited to speak along with Ed Yourdon, Larry Dribin, and CAI’s Bob Longhorn.
It should be a great event. I have participated in these with Larry and Bob in the past, and I am a lifetime fan of Ed.
I believe we will be doing the same genre in Toronto later in the year.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Why Do Estimation Webinar With Geoff Hewson and Dan Galorath
I have had a good time developing a webinar with Geoff Hewson of the Software Productivity Center. It should be very informative and hopefully entertaining as well.
Register by clicking
Date and time: Tuesday, March 10, 2009 8:30 am
Pacific Daylight Time (GMT -07:00, San Francisco)
Description: Software estimation, planning and control can be keystones to successful projects. Companies that estimate strategically are able to zero in their projects so they deliver to business targets. Despite this many treat estimation as a black art or worse – a guess.
Dan Galorath and Geoff Hewson will explain the key concepts that drive successful software estimation in support of planning and managing successful software development and maintenance projects:
1. Decisions and deliverables needed to design estimation procedures tuned to your organization.
2. Guidance in setting up the infrastructure you need to realize the most benefit from your new estimation capabilities.
3. Establishing a “negotiating culture” to allow you to deal effectively with the results of your estimates and focus projects on business success.
SEER for Software concepts will support the discussion.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Software Estimation Much More Complicated Than Some Perceive
How many times have we been asked to submit a 5 minute or off the cuff estimate to stakeholders… Then be held to that estimate even though we missed the complexity in our haste.. Of course if we didn’t prepare an estimate until everything was known the estimate would be of little value. That is why uncertainty must be part of the process and off the cuff, manual estimations should be avoided when possible.
I thought these diagrams showing the perceived simplicity of the software estimation process versus complexities in the software cost estimation process were very interesting.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Project Prediction Infographic
