Estimation, Planning & Control Can Make the Difference Between Project Success and Failure
This is the webinar I did through the ITMPI today covering estimation and project success as well as estimation process and best practices. Estimation, Planning & Control Can Make The Difference Between Project Success and Failure
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page, call us at +1 310 414-3222 or click a button below to ask sales questions, sign up for our free library or schedule a demo.
IT Risk Management Through Process, Estimation and Measurement
I had the privilege of presenting “IT Risk Management Through Process, Estimation and Measurement” at the Manila ITMPI conference on the topic of IT risk management. There was a large, savvy audience, eager to further explore this topic. As we have seen in other countries, many don’t look at estimation, planning, measurement, and control as critical processes. Those organizations often have less than successful projects, late, over cost, and with missing functionality. Conversely, those organizations that do spent mind-share on these critical planning and management functions perform much better. Of course not all their projects are successful, but many more are, and they know when things are turning for the worse and can fix them sooner. The three key points of the presentation were.
- Critical IT Systems present significant risks to organizations
- IT estimating processes are core to reducing risk
- IT estimation & metrics can help mitigate risk & empower program managers to be successful
PS: I also got a little R&R in, scuba diving about 100 kilometers outside Manila. Beautiful diving and very unusual dive boats… This is the exact style, but not the actual boat we dove from.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page, call us at +1 310 414-3222 or click a button below to ask sales questions, sign up for our free library or schedule a demo.
Understanding Cost & Affordability Using SEER as a Common Benchmark, Driven By Facts
I was pleased to present at the joint CAST / Galorath event. My paper, “Understanding Cost & Affordability Using SEER as a Common Benchmark, Driven By Facts,” covers use of parametrics as a common language for describing estimation problems and solutions. It also points out how parametrics can be the basis of affordability trade-offs even when the final cost may be produced bottoms-up. Additionally it illustrates how SEER parametrics combine with data and provide traceability and confidence by the facts of prior systems. The following graphic illustrates the savings in time as well as the potential number of affordability analyses that can be done with SEER versus manually:
This briefing also touches on the Carter DoD “Better Buying Initiative” and affordability analysis to provide “will cost” analysis.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page, call us at +1 310 414-3222 or click a button below to ask sales questions, sign up for our free library or schedule a demo.
GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide: Best Practices for Developing and Managing Capital Program Costs
The CAST / Galorath meeting in the Washington DC area included excellent presentations and speakers. Thanks to GAO’s Karen Ritchie for her presentation covering the GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide.
Karen’s presentation: GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide: Best Practices for Developing and Managing Capital Program Costs covered the need for repeatable estimating process, and the concepts and lessons learned from the cost assessment guide.
Purpose of the Guide is to
- Address best practices for ensuring credible program cost estimates for both government and industry
- Provide a detailed link between cost estimating and Earned Value Management (EVM)
- Highlight OMB’s endorsement of EVM for measuring cost, schedule, and technical performance
- Guide demonstrates how realistic cost and schedule estimates are necessary for setting achievable program baselines and managing risk
The guide includes a 12 step estimating process as well as checklists for auditing estimates and estimation processes.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page, call us at +1 310 414-3222 or click a button below to ask sales questions, sign up for our free library or schedule a demo.
Galorath / DCG IT Estimation For Business Value and Project Success Clinic
Here are the slides from the Galorath / David Consulting Group estimating clinic held in New York City. There were interesting discussions encompassing dealing with impossible demands, understanding risk and risk management, sizing, and a number of other topics. Note: The Galorath slides and the DCG slides are combined in the one PDF file.
Concepts of IT providing business value to the organization were also discussed in detail.
Thanks to all who attended and especially to Mike Harris and David Herren for their insights.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page, call us at +1 310 414-3222 or click a button below to ask sales questions, sign up for our free library or schedule a demo.
Data Driven Estimating Part 1: How Data Feeds The Estimation Modeling Paradigm at Galorath / SEER
Lee Fischman’s article on data driven estimating follows:
Summary
- Galorath constantly collects data from many sources, both public and private.
- Data must be processed to be useful, using methods that Galorath routinely and openly discusses.
- In addition to data, numerous other sources play an important role in maintaining the accuracy of SEER for Software estimates.
- As important as data is, innovation is equally so. The core SEER model has been improved and extended over time, and new features have been added, to make estimating ever easier, more applicable, and more accurate.
- Data Driven Estimating Part 2: Data Driven Estimating Features in SEER for Software is available upon request.
What Does It Mean To Be Data Driven?
These days software estimation vendors are competing to have the largest repositories of completed software projects, and the customer is encouraging this competition, which is fundamentally good. However, there is more to insuring the accuracy of an estimation model than just having a lot of data points sitting on the proverbial shelf.
Where Data Comes From
The first question asked of a vendor is, where does your data on completed software projects come from? Early on, much of it came from Government agencies, who in turn collected from contractors. Over time, public sources have emerged that contain voluntarily submitted information from private companies worldwide; the prime example of this being the International Software Benchmark Standards Group (ISBSG). Galorath has obtained software project data over the years through numerous private and public sources. The data comprises many thousands of total observations that have passed data quality tests. Most observations contain size and effort information, thousands more do not contain all the desired fields.
What is Done with Data
While plain-vanilla data can reveal a lot, it has its limitations. For this reason, Galorath maintains extensive surveillance of industry trends, including third-party analyses. These can reveal insight into changes in modern practices such as Agile development, the productivity gained by the latest IDEs, and many other ongoing evolutions. The company is a member of numerous industry consortiums – in part to obtain access to the latest research available.
At Galorath, once data is acquired, it is processed into a form that is usable for analysis. This involves normalization so that the data points are comparable, i.e., include the same activities from early requirements through testing and the same types of labor, including programmers, testers, management, etc… We also try to find and understand outliers those projects that are so different that they are not useful. At numerous conferences and in webinars, we have described our normalization process and compared our results against other methods.
Using the collected data we update SEER for Software in several ways. A key method is to run our model against various stratifications (specific subsets such as Business and Client-Server) that are defined by SEER for Software’s knowledge bases. Simply put, we compare the models estimates to observed outcomes. Based on these results, knowledge bases are re-calibrated when necessary. In fact, data sets are not uniform in terms of the information observed. Some completed project records may include peak staff, development activities, and software language used, while others don’t. We account for this by performing a separate analysis of various factors: language productivity, development proportions, productivity variation by application or development method, and so on. These analyses are done first, and the model is adjusted, before gross analysis is begun.
SEER for Software’s core model is configured to a particular circumstance by a set of knowledge bases, and its these knowledge bases that are calibrated based on new industry information and trends. Each knowledge base is defined in terms of a set of parameters, some visible to users, and others normally hidden. When a knowledge base is updated the visible parameters, such as Modern Development Practices, may be modified and some underlying calibration factors may be adjusted. These knowledge base adjustments occur every few years as evidence warrants.
Innovative Features Support the Data Driven Approach
The overall evolution of SEER for Software is best called innovation-driven as well as data-driven. While data analysis is a very important part of how we maintain SEER for Software, we also continually enhance the model’s ability to estimate real world projects. These enhancements have often been industry firsts: flexible project staffing, off-the-shelf (COTS) integration modeling, translation of estimates into detailed project plans having intricate interdependencies, extended schedule and small schedule estimating, cloud computing solutions, to name only a few. All these innovations, alongside data-driven updates, serve an important role in insuring the model’s precision.
Note Data Driven Estimating Part 2: Data Driven Estimating Features in SEER for Software is available upon request via info@galorath.com Additional information may be found at www.galorath.com
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page, call us at +1 310 414-3222 or click a button below to ask sales questions, sign up for our free library or schedule a demo.
The Estimate Maturity Model Can Improve Project Success
Dan Galorath briefed the Galorath estimate maturity model, a method of evaluating where the organization is in estimation practice and where it wants / needs to go.
This paper discusses poor estimates and their impact on projects as well as how to improve estimate maturity as a means to more successful projects.
The presentation concludes:
- Estimation and estimation process are core for successful software projects
- Improving estimate maturity can improve your project success rate
- Gartner says even SEER use improves estimate vs. actual variance by 50%
- A good guess is not a substitute for a viable estimate
- Looking at total ownership cost can change project prospective
- Much of the industry is at level 1 in estimation maturity
- Process initiatives like CMMI require:
- Estimation & planning, monitoring & control, measurement & analysis
- IT Infrastructure and IT Services are significant costs and must be estimated in addition to software development and maintenance
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page, call us at +1 310 414-3222 or click a button below to ask sales questions, sign up for our free library or schedule a demo.
Controlling Software Projects: Development Is Only Job One: Chicago SPIN Nov 12 2009
Dan will be speaking at the Chicago SPIN on November 12, 2009 on the topic of controlling software projects. Estimation, planning, control, metrics, and maintenance for a total ownership cost view will be discussed.
The presentation is here: Chicago SPIN November 2009 Galorath Presentation Controlling Software Projects Development Is Only Job 1
PS Dan looks forward to his short visit to Chicago, his home town. And is going to carefully avoid pizza, hot dogs, and Italian beef while he is there.
The flyer follows:
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page, call us at +1 310 414-3222 or click a button below to ask sales questions, sign up for our free library or schedule a demo.
Estimate Review Checklists
I was asked today for a SEER-SEM 10 Step estimate review checklist. Of course there are checklists in my book:
105 – 107; Step Seven: Estimate Validation and Review
108 – 109; Estimate Review Activities
117 – 128; Estimate Process Questionnaire
432 – 434; SEER-SEM Estimation Process Step 7: Review, Verify and Validate Estimate
And a blog that includes some of the checklists
There are also a number of other useful checklists:
- Bob Park, while with the SEI, developed this checklist. It remains useful even today.
- Galorath has an estimate assessment document based on a prerelease of the 10 Step book.
- Galorath has an additional document available to SEER users upon request.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page, call us at +1 310 414-3222 or click a button below to ask sales questions, sign up for our free library or schedule a demo.
Estimation Plus Process and Measurement Rigor Yields More Successful Projects: SEER and Tracer
It has been rewarding working with the Computer Aid (CAI) people, the people who sponsor the ITMPI in tying together best practice approaches (SEER for Estimating, Planning and Control and Computer Aid’s Tracer for metrics, reporting and root level management). I am always inspired when I hear the CAI people explain their process and success in fixed price software development and maintenance. They do it by a number of methods and processes. But the one that always makes me the most excited is their Tracer software. Tracer allows root level tracking of tasks and progress, providing near real time feedback regarding project health and status and individual task performance. I think it is wonderful that they have made their solution available to the industry at large. It is much like the factory floor real time feedback in manufacturing, applied to software. From CAI’s web site is the following description which describes estimating effort, cost, and process tracking.:
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page, call us at +1 310 414-3222 or click a button below to ask sales questions, sign up for our free library or schedule a demo.
Project Prediction Infographic
