Off Topic: Estimating the Occurence of Phantom Traffic Jams
Estimating the slowdown on the freeway. Interesting article from Wired quantifies and estimates the occurrence of phantom traffic jams. You all know them… traffic slows to a crawl. There must be an accident. But no, it is just a phantom traffic jam. Living in Los Angeles I find this really interesting.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Addressing the Need for More Female Computer Science Graduates
Gender equity in computing has long been a national goal advanced by those concerned with fairness and by those who know that the female point of view improves the design and development of software systems. Unfortunately, the percentage of young women entering computing-related majors keeps falling, and the female dropout rate is higher than the very high male dropout rate.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts a large increase in the need for B.S. and M.S. computing graduates in the next decade. The largest untapped pool of potential computing majors and, eventually, computing professionals, is science- and math-talented high school students, but only about 10% of entering undergraduate majors in computing majors are female. Despite the many initiatives aimed at attracting young women, the number of female computing majors keeps dropping…
Prof David Klappholz is involved in the Real Projects for Real Clients Courses (RPRCC) initiative, a K-12 and college level ACM-W project aimed at recruiting young women into, and retaining them in, computing-related majors. The initiative’s approach is based upon a 35-year-long psychological study that followed hundreds of mathematically- and scientifically-talented youth from middle school to middle age and elucidates gender differences in career choice.
Galorath’s head of development is female, as is nearly half our development staff. And so naturally from us, three cheers for RPRCC!
From http://users.drew.edu/ftrees/TECS/Session_Descriptions.htm
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Schedule As an Independent Variable
There has been much talk given, in some development circles, of CAIV, cost as an independent variable (you can request my software CAIV briefing via comment on this BLOG.) This means what it costs should be a key criterion just like other key criteria such as functionality and performance. In a CAIV analysis there is a balance: what you get and how much it costs. This is a good thing since functionality only has a certain value, and spending more on it causes other things to suffer.
Schedule as an Independent Variable (SAIV) has significant merit as well. Getting it done when I need it, perhaps with less functionality than what I think I need (the Agile community points out a third of software functionality developed is rarely used or doesn’t add significant usefulness.) In an outsourced environment there are several main elements to SAIV:
- Incentives for positive contractor performance
- Penalties for poor contractor performance
- Clear definition of the minimum acceptable capability
- Pay the bonus ONLY for major completion, not time phased
Of course, an impossible date will help no one. A minimum time schedule as SEER provides and many iterations are key to success.
SAIV is applicable to computer projects (until Brooks law kicks in) and has been used successfully in construction. F0r example: the Santa Monica freeway repair following the 1994 North-ridge earthquake is an example of a successful SAIV project. Contractors wre informed that that if work completed after the date they would e penalized $200,000 per day and they would receive a bonus of $200,000 per day for each day they beat the schedule.
The winning contractor, made schedule (SAIV) a key criterion. Repairs were completed 74 days early: a $14.5 million bonus. Because the state of California estimated that the freeway’s closure cost Los Angeles’ economy $1 million a day, the speediness of completion may have saved the state as much as $34 million. And as a Los Angeles resident I can attest to the community morale improvement provided by SAIV.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Manufacturing Revolution, Product Development, And Cost Analysis
Jim Ryan of Computer Aid pointed out, during the SEER / Tracer alliance conference, that the manufacturing revolution was able to provide continuous cost reductions and dramatically lower costs. He had examples of:
- Steel 8 hours / ton vs. 25
- GM: 28 hours per car vs. 100
- GE: Constant stream of 10% per year cost reductions
- Motorola, Et Al: Six sigma 3.4 failures per million
The way this was achieved:
- Measure like crazy
- Establish aggressive targets
- Use data to make decisions
- Recognize and reward accomplishments and progress
- Create a learning culture
- Treasure every cycle of learning
Jim points out that all these approaches apply directly to information technology but… we have not seen the revolution occur. He showed how IT productivity has remained flat or slightly declining over the years.
Jim also pointed out that productivity between the 1st and 4th quartile is about 6 times higher than the first quartile
The core principals of the IT revolution are:
- Defined Standard Repeatable Processes
- Process, Performance Product Metrics
- Quality Focus (Quality checks early, not just checklists at the end… code reviews, design reviews)
- Standard cost model…
- End to End process management
- Metrics
- Continuous Improvement
Jim has seen a 50% cost reduction in the work using these approaches within Computer Aid. These are supported by Tracer.
I (Dan) will be speaking on estimate maturity and how Similar results can be achieved by focusing on estimating process maturity. Estimating process maturity should be part of a mature project management process.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Acquisition Reform (WSARA) Webinar Discusses Lessons Learned and Way Forward
If you are interested in government acquisition reform be sure to register for this webinar. Bob Hunt, Galorath VP of Services, was a senior Pentagon official the last time around and will share both what was learned from before and how to apply these to the current WSARA (Weapons System Acquisition Reform Act). Here is the webinar invitation.
Acquisition Reform (WSARA) And How It Impacts Your Estimations: Looking Forward And Lessons Learned
Weapons systems acquisition reform has been a recurring topic within the Department of Defense for many years.
Mr. Bob Hunt, Galorath’s V.P. of Professional Services, was a Senior Pentagon official during the previous Acquisition Reform initiatives. He has since been active in the contractor community. Mr. Hunt will offer a unique perspective on how these acquisition reforms will impact both the Government and the contractor estimating communities.
This WebEx will discuss the unique implications of the latest reform on the cost and schedule estimating process, including:
• Cost Assessment & Program Evaluation
• Directors of DT&E and Systems Engineering Performance Assessments & Root Cause Analysis
• Assessment of Technology Maturity
• Trade-Offs in Cost, Schedule and Performance
• Critical Cost Growth in MDAPs
• Earned Value Management
• Required Reports
• Cost Assessment & Program Evaluation
• How some of the SEER applications can be advantageously applied for Pre-milestone A estimates
• And much more!
Much (or some) of this has been tried before, e.g. Goldwater-Nichols Department of Defense Reorganization Act of 1986; also discussed in “The Cost Analysis Improvement Group: A History” by Srull, Margolis, and McNicol. WSARA is being driven by the continued and “sometimes surprising growth” in the cost and schedule of Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs).
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Date and Time
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March 9, 2010
8:30 am, Pacific Standard Time (GMT -07:00, San Francisco)
11:30 am, Eastern Standard Time (GMT -05:00, New York)
4:30 pm, London, England
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Presenter
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Bob HuntVP of Services, Galorath Incorporated
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To register for the online event
——————————————————-
This complimentary event requires registration with a corporate email address.
1. Go to https://galorathevents.webex.com/galorathevents/onstage/g.php?t=a&d=669660618
2. Click “Register”.
3. On the registration form, enter your information and then click “Submit”.
Once the host approves your enrollment, you will receive a confirmation email message with instructions on how to join the event
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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What You Don’t Measure Can Hurt You
Following up on a new year’s resolution I brought a scanner into my office. I was determined to scan what was necessary and throw away what was not. Based on the findings at the bottom of my in-basket, I generally went electronic sometime in 2003.
As I was throwing away old copies of IEEE Software I noticed an article entitled “What You Don’t Measure Can Hurt You.” With such a title and since I have had it in my in box since 2003 I just had to take a break and read it. Its points are as valid today as they were in 2003:
“In 1924, Walter Shewhart adapted statistical methods to the problem of quality control in the manufacturing sector. In manufacturing, the observed and actual number of defects is not significantly different. In software development these two numbers routinely vary significantly. Contributing causes for extreme variation in software measurement include the following:
- People are the software development process
- Software measurement might introduce more variation than the process
- Size metrics do not count discrete, identical units
- SPC must be adapted to software to provide a tool that isolates variation requiring corrective action from variation that is unavoidable and random
One of the paper’s great examples is: if we assign a smaller team the inspection may find fewer defects. That doesn’t equate to higher quality software. So measure both and be careful not to draw erroneous conclusions.
Thankfully IEEE Software is available electronically. Here is the article “What You Don’t Measure Can Hurt You”
PS: I found a candy bar in the bottom of that in-basket too. Scary.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Economics For Product Development Decisions… My First Inkling
I had to smile when I was clearing out old documents and found my rationale for reimbursement of my tuition for MBA courses in micro and macroeconomics. Talk about being a SEER of the future. This is April 6, 1978, before I started Galorath. Why do I include this…. the statements were right on… better decisions, improved communications, more successful development with SEER.
The classes I am required to take during this quarter and Macro and Micro Economics. In addition to enhancing my effectiveness in my current job function via broader prospective of business, the application of the concepts of economic analysis will help me make better decisions, communicate data in a more clear, concise format, and more effectively analyse product development considerations (for example: additional development time to produce a superior product versus earlier delivery of an adequate product)
PS: This was sometime after my project was killed because I would not cut the cost and schedule by a third from my original estimate.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Forecasting Guidebook from the UK Ministry of Defense
Congratulations to Andy Nicholls and his team at Abby Wood, UK MoD for their cost forecasting guidebook. I found it clear, to the point and overall excellent piece of work. The cost forecasting guidebook may be downloaded here.
In preparing the guidebook, Andy wanted to stress the following:
“Forecasts of cost and schedule, performed by suitably qualified and experienced staff, are only as accurate as the data, programme information, assumptions and tool sets permit within the forecaster’s prevailing view of the industrial context necessary to develop and manufacture the new capability.” Andy Nicholls
I found the definitions of estimating versus forecasting very interesting and include them here:
What is a Forecast?
A technological forecast is a prediction of the future characteristics of useful machines, procedures or techniques
It therefore follows that a cost and or schedule forecast accounts for the cost and time needed for the subject of a technological forecast, the forecaster does not need to invent a machine or determine how any limitations may be surpassed only mention that they will be and to have a sound understanding of required technologies (see Technology Considerations).
The terms ‘Estimating’ and ‘Forecasting’ can be interchanged and often they are; however, Forecasting is different to Estimating and that difference lies within the definitions below:
 “Forecasting†predicts a view(s) of the future, it is conducted ‘top down’ using less detail when procurement needs and Industrial environment have both uncertainty and major risks present. Forecasting is used in early programme phases to predict likely budget needs and to compare potential solution options.
Forecasting seldom considers development or production of items below ‘black box’, system or even platform level. Decimal points are rarely employed unless dealing in £Billions. Therefore a forecast cannot provide absolute costs or be ‘accurate’ in the normal sense of that word and is unlikely to be used for contract price setting unless considerable design detail is available.
 “Estimating†calculates a view of costs today, the word implies accuracy and often an estimate can be within a few percent (typically within 5%) of actual costs or time taken. Cost estimating is usually performed “bottom up†and requires good design and manufacturing process detail with a sound understanding of the industry environment: development and manufacturing labour are developed using detail estimating techniques that include application of learner curves to piece part level if appropriate. Estimates are used to assist price setting for contract purposes and in value analysis.
The guidebook goes on to discuss consistent forecasting processes (one of my favorite topics) models, historical data, and inflation. I recommend downloading and studying this guidebook.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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A Business Imperative for Change From the Taskforce on Defense Acquisition Law and Oversight
This document analyses Government Acquisition Reform and was developed by a business task force including a who’s who of American technology business and government. It is very relevant to those concerned with DoD acquisition costs. I have included a few quotes and conclusions here to give the reader a flavor of the document.
“I reject the notion that we have to waste billions of taxpayer dollars to keep this nation secure.†—Barack Obama
1. Requirements need to be iterative
“Higher costs, whether based on low estimates or poor enterprise management, is unacceptable and harmful to the defense enterprise.â€
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“While the shortcomings of defense acquisition are manifold, the issue that has drawn by far the greatest criticism to date is the high cost, and cost growth, of the products it produces. Simply stated, we are on an unsustainable cost trajectory.” —John Young, former USD (AT&L)
 Adherence to program execution processes aimed at satisfying the needs of the war fighter is essential: with resources to address contingencies, with proven technology, and viable poor estimates of production volumes. Programs should be funded when:
 1. the requirement is clear (And requirements should be iterative);
2) funding is adequate, including reserves, is available
3) the technology is proven
 4) the system concept is well-defined
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Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Estimation of Goals Efficacy
As millions of Americans flock to the gym armed with New Year’s resolutions to get in shape, medical experts are offering an additional reason to exercise: Regular workouts may help fight off colds and flu, reduce the risk of certain cancers and chronic diseases and slow the process of aging.
- Ponder what goals would assist you (consider physical, mental, social goals)
- Determine if each goal is short, medium, or long-term
-
Write down each goal, along with a plan, constraints and success criteria
-
Review goals often to ensure you are on track or to make adjustments
-
Celebrate accomplishment of each goal
Physical activity has long been known to bestow such benefits as helping to maintain a healthy weight and reduce stress, not to mention tightening those abs. Now, a growing body of research is showing that regular exercise—as simple as a brisk 30- to 45-minute walk five times a week—can boost the body’s immune system, increasing the circulation of natural killer cells that fight off viruses and bacteria.
“No pill or nutritional supplement has the power of near-daily moderate activity in lowering the number of sick days people take,” says David Nieman, director of Appalachian State University’s Human Performance Lab in Kannapolis, N.C. Dr. Nieman has conducted several randomized controlled studies showing that people who walked briskly for 45 minutes, five days a week over 12 to 15 weeks had fewer and less severe upper respiratory tract infections, such as colds and flu. These subjects reduced their number of sick days 25% to 50% compared with sedentary control subjects, he says.
The process I use for goal setting is something like the following:
In April 2009 there was a story of a man who met a physical goal under the hardest of circumstances:
A delighted Major Phil Packer told Sky News: “It’s been amazing. I’ve had fantastic support.” The 36-year-old lost the use of his legs during a rocket attack in Iraq last February and was told he would never walk again. But he defied predictions to make the start of the 26-mile race in Greenwich on April 26, 2009. Having achieved his target of two miles a day he crossed the finish line in The Mall early Saturday afternoon. There to greet him and present him with his medal was Olympic rowing legend Sir Steven Redgrave.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.