Acquisition Reform (WSARA) Webinar Discusses Lessons Learned and Way Forward
If you are interested in government acquisition reform be sure to register for this webinar. Bob Hunt, Galorath VP of Services, was a senior Pentagon official the last time around and will share both what was learned from before and how to apply these to the current WSARA (Weapons System Acquisition Reform Act). Here is the webinar invitation.
Acquisition Reform (WSARA) And How It Impacts Your Estimations: Looking Forward And Lessons Learned
Weapons systems acquisition reform has been a recurring topic within the Department of Defense for many years.
Mr. Bob Hunt, Galorath’s V.P. of Professional Services, was a Senior Pentagon official during the previous Acquisition Reform initiatives. He has since been active in the contractor community. Mr. Hunt will offer a unique perspective on how these acquisition reforms will impact both the Government and the contractor estimating communities.
This WebEx will discuss the unique implications of the latest reform on the cost and schedule estimating process, including:
• Cost Assessment & Program Evaluation
• Directors of DT&E and Systems Engineering Performance Assessments & Root Cause Analysis
• Assessment of Technology Maturity
• Trade-Offs in Cost, Schedule and Performance
• Critical Cost Growth in MDAPs
• Earned Value Management
• Required Reports
• Cost Assessment & Program Evaluation
• How some of the SEER applications can be advantageously applied for Pre-milestone A estimates
• And much more!
Much (or some) of this has been tried before, e.g. Goldwater-Nichols Department of Defense Reorganization Act of 1986; also discussed in “The Cost Analysis Improvement Group: A History” by Srull, Margolis, and McNicol. WSARA is being driven by the continued and “sometimes surprising growth” in the cost and schedule of Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs).
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Date and Time
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March 9, 2010
8:30 am, Pacific Standard Time (GMT -07:00, San Francisco)
11:30 am, Eastern Standard Time (GMT -05:00, New York)
4:30 pm, London, England
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Presenter
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Bob HuntVP of Services, Galorath Incorporated
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To register for the online event
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This complimentary event requires registration with a corporate email address.
1. Go to https://galorathevents.webex.com/galorathevents/onstage/g.php?t=a&d=669660618
2. Click “Register”.
3. On the registration form, enter your information and then click “Submit”.
Once the host approves your enrollment, you will receive a confirmation email message with instructions on how to join the event
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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What You Don’t Measure Can Hurt You
Following up on a new year’s resolution I brought a scanner into my office. I was determined to scan what was necessary and throw away what was not. Based on the findings at the bottom of my in-basket, I generally went electronic sometime in 2003.
As I was throwing away old copies of IEEE Software I noticed an article entitled “What You Don’t Measure Can Hurt You.” With such a title and since I have had it in my in box since 2003 I just had to take a break and read it. Its points are as valid today as they were in 2003:
“In 1924, Walter Shewhart adapted statistical methods to the problem of quality control in the manufacturing sector. In manufacturing, the observed and actual number of defects is not significantly different. In software development these two numbers routinely vary significantly. Contributing causes for extreme variation in software measurement include the following:
- People are the software development process
- Software measurement might introduce more variation than the process
- Size metrics do not count discrete, identical units
- SPC must be adapted to software to provide a tool that isolates variation requiring corrective action from variation that is unavoidable and random
One of the paper’s great examples is: if we assign a smaller team the inspection may find fewer defects. That doesn’t equate to higher quality software. So measure both and be careful not to draw erroneous conclusions.
Thankfully IEEE Software is available electronically. Here is the article “What You Don’t Measure Can Hurt You”
PS: I found a candy bar in the bottom of that in-basket too. Scary.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Economics For Product Development Decisions… My First Inkling
I had to smile when I was clearing out old documents and found my rationale for reimbursement of my tuition for MBA courses in micro and macroeconomics. Talk about being a SEER of the future. This is April 6, 1978, before I started Galorath. Why do I include this…. the statements were right on… better decisions, improved communications, more successful development with SEER.
The classes I am required to take during this quarter and Macro and Micro Economics. In addition to enhancing my effectiveness in my current job function via broader prospective of business, the application of the concepts of economic analysis will help me make better decisions, communicate data in a more clear, concise format, and more effectively analyse product development considerations (for example: additional development time to produce a superior product versus earlier delivery of an adequate product)
PS: This was sometime after my project was killed because I would not cut the cost and schedule by a third from my original estimate.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Forecasting Guidebook from the UK Ministry of Defense
Congratulations to Andy Nicholls and his team at Abby Wood, UK MoD for their cost forecasting guidebook. I found it clear, to the point and overall excellent piece of work. The cost forecasting guidebook may be downloaded here.
In preparing the guidebook, Andy wanted to stress the following:
“Forecasts of cost and schedule, performed by suitably qualified and experienced staff, are only as accurate as the data, programme information, assumptions and tool sets permit within the forecaster’s prevailing view of the industrial context necessary to develop and manufacture the new capability.” Andy Nicholls
I found the definitions of estimating versus forecasting very interesting and include them here:
What is a Forecast?
A technological forecast is a prediction of the future characteristics of useful machines, procedures or techniques
It therefore follows that a cost and or schedule forecast accounts for the cost and time needed for the subject of a technological forecast, the forecaster does not need to invent a machine or determine how any limitations may be surpassed only mention that they will be and to have a sound understanding of required technologies (see Technology Considerations).
The terms ‘Estimating’ and ‘Forecasting’ can be interchanged and often they are; however, Forecasting is different to Estimating and that difference lies within the definitions below:
 “Forecasting†predicts a view(s) of the future, it is conducted ‘top down’ using less detail when procurement needs and Industrial environment have both uncertainty and major risks present. Forecasting is used in early programme phases to predict likely budget needs and to compare potential solution options.
Forecasting seldom considers development or production of items below ‘black box’, system or even platform level. Decimal points are rarely employed unless dealing in £Billions. Therefore a forecast cannot provide absolute costs or be ‘accurate’ in the normal sense of that word and is unlikely to be used for contract price setting unless considerable design detail is available.
 “Estimating†calculates a view of costs today, the word implies accuracy and often an estimate can be within a few percent (typically within 5%) of actual costs or time taken. Cost estimating is usually performed “bottom up†and requires good design and manufacturing process detail with a sound understanding of the industry environment: development and manufacturing labour are developed using detail estimating techniques that include application of learner curves to piece part level if appropriate. Estimates are used to assist price setting for contract purposes and in value analysis.
The guidebook goes on to discuss consistent forecasting processes (one of my favorite topics) models, historical data, and inflation. I recommend downloading and studying this guidebook.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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A Business Imperative for Change From the Taskforce on Defense Acquisition Law and Oversight
This document analyses Government Acquisition Reform and was developed by a business task force including a who’s who of American technology business and government. It is very relevant to those concerned with DoD acquisition costs. I have included a few quotes and conclusions here to give the reader a flavor of the document.
“I reject the notion that we have to waste billions of taxpayer dollars to keep this nation secure.†—Barack Obama
1. Requirements need to be iterative
“Higher costs, whether based on low estimates or poor enterprise management, is unacceptable and harmful to the defense enterprise.â€
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“While the shortcomings of defense acquisition are manifold, the issue that has drawn by far the greatest criticism to date is the high cost, and cost growth, of the products it produces. Simply stated, we are on an unsustainable cost trajectory.” —John Young, former USD (AT&L)
 Adherence to program execution processes aimed at satisfying the needs of the war fighter is essential: with resources to address contingencies, with proven technology, and viable poor estimates of production volumes. Programs should be funded when:
 1. the requirement is clear (And requirements should be iterative);
2) funding is adequate, including reserves, is available
3) the technology is proven
 4) the system concept is well-defined
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Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Estimation of Goals Efficacy
As millions of Americans flock to the gym armed with New Year’s resolutions to get in shape, medical experts are offering an additional reason to exercise: Regular workouts may help fight off colds and flu, reduce the risk of certain cancers and chronic diseases and slow the process of aging.
- Ponder what goals would assist you (consider physical, mental, social goals)
- Determine if each goal is short, medium, or long-term
-
Write down each goal, along with a plan, constraints and success criteria
-
Review goals often to ensure you are on track or to make adjustments
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Celebrate accomplishment of each goal
Physical activity has long been known to bestow such benefits as helping to maintain a healthy weight and reduce stress, not to mention tightening those abs. Now, a growing body of research is showing that regular exercise—as simple as a brisk 30- to 45-minute walk five times a week—can boost the body’s immune system, increasing the circulation of natural killer cells that fight off viruses and bacteria.
“No pill or nutritional supplement has the power of near-daily moderate activity in lowering the number of sick days people take,” says David Nieman, director of Appalachian State University’s Human Performance Lab in Kannapolis, N.C. Dr. Nieman has conducted several randomized controlled studies showing that people who walked briskly for 45 minutes, five days a week over 12 to 15 weeks had fewer and less severe upper respiratory tract infections, such as colds and flu. These subjects reduced their number of sick days 25% to 50% compared with sedentary control subjects, he says.
The process I use for goal setting is something like the following:
In April 2009 there was a story of a man who met a physical goal under the hardest of circumstances:
A delighted Major Phil Packer told Sky News: “It’s been amazing. I’ve had fantastic support.” The 36-year-old lost the use of his legs during a rocket attack in Iraq last February and was told he would never walk again. But he defied predictions to make the start of the 26-mile race in Greenwich on April 26, 2009. Having achieved his target of two miles a day he crossed the finish line in The Mall early Saturday afternoon. There to greet him and present him with his medal was Olympic rowing legend Sir Steven Redgrave.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Eating the IT Elephant: Moving From Greenfield to Brownfield Development
The book “Eating the IT Elephant“ discusses the issues of moving from developing new systems to continuing evolution of legacy systems and provides practical, step by step methods of getting these under control. It discusses Brooks Law and its fundamental truths and then says “Brooks had it easy.” It points out that Brooks’ original work was developing a new (Greenfield) system with a local team. And that today our teams are global, our systems are scattered and interrelated.
It discusses the demands of global systems, project reporting, change management, induced complexity (the technology itself is rarely the problem but the way the technology is put together becomes the “induced complexity”), requirements definition and, my favorite, ORGANIZATION and PLANNING.
While the book does not reference SEER directly, it discusses the difficulties and probable failure of projects that do not understand the minimum time, the realistic costs and the risks.
This book recommends EVERYONE read Frederick Brooks’ book, “The Mythical Man Month.” I heartily agree. It has been interesting to see others attack Brooks Law , “There is an incremental person when added to a project that makes it take longer, not less time, and adding people to a late project makes it later.” Brooks Law is alive and well today and involved in nearly every Brownfield “legacy innovation system” as well as new system. The key is making sure you are viewing Brooks Law at the correct level.
The book includes a process for “eating the elephant,” improving Brownfield developments. I recommend giving it a read.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Save 5 to 9% of IT Spending By Zero Based Budgeting
According to a survey by CFO magazine , IT organizations can save 5 to 9%Â of their budgets by starting their budget from scratch (zero-based budgeting) rather than just revising last year’s budget
The CIO Executive Board created a model of best budgeting practices, based on a survey of 200 of its member IT executives about their budget planning for this year. It then compared the model with practices employed by companies at the other end of the efficiency spectrum to determine potential savings.
The group estimated that some companies wasted 5% to 9% of their 2009 IT spending in missed cost-cutting opportunities, largely by revising the previous year’s budget rather than starting from scratch with a zero-based budget. Freshly scrutinizing every line item tends to unearth significant savings, says Andrew Horne, senior research director for the CIO Executive Board.
The article also identified significant cost savings by ensuring that IT is aligned with the business objectives.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Frank Freiman: Early Parametric Modeler Passes Away
I heard today that Frank Freiman, one of the very early parametric modelers passed away. Our prayers go out to his family.
Frank started modeling with RCA in the late 1960’s and started RCA’s PRICE systems division. He left RCA and started his next generation estimating models (FAST models) sometime in the 1980’s.
While FAST disappeared some years ago (Frank offered it to Galorath at one time but we didn’t see a fit with SEER) I did find an old FAST document on the web
I was also awarded the Freiman lifetime achievement award, named after Frank.
The world has lost a great man.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
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Modeling a New Year’s Resolution In Relation to SEER
ANother masterpiece by Galorath’s David DeWitt follows. Amazing it is nearly New Years again. ANd that it has been 4 years since my personal weight lose.
Modeling a New Year’s Resolution
David DeWitt, Senior Consultant, Galorath Incorporated
Part of the problem with becoming a cost estimation aficionado, who thrives on parametric modeling, is that one tends to think they can build a model for just about everything:  Software, Hardware, Aircraft wings, IT infrastructures, cattle futures, etc.  In fact, the more one builds the estimates and discovers that the answers are accurate – the more insatiable the desire becomes. Certainly, it must be possible to build a parametric model for nearly anything!
With that in mind – and considering the time of year – what a perfect opportunity to finally perfect that nastiest of all New Years Eve resolutions, (and the one that rings the bells of cash registers in health clubs, sporting goods stores, and vitamin shops around the world):
“This year I vow to… LOSE WEIGHT!â€
But, how can one use a parametric modeling approach to losing weight, you ask? Ah, let that beguiling high begin as sacred knowledge bases are considered and the plethora of parameters prescribed.  This should be quite easy, after all, look how much a software estimate has in common with losing weight:
- “size†is certainly the largest driving factor in software and ones girth,
- an increase in functionality (due to the lost weight) is the desired outcome for both, Â
- a methodology must be selected (diet, exercise, grapefruit enemas) to provide an approach,
- and the rigor of oversight (a personal trainer) is key to success or failure
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It looks to me as if the math necessary to build a software model contains all the same components for losing weight. Let’s give it a try!  First I will need to select the appropriate knowledge bases that best reflect what I am trying to model.
|
The Human Problem |
The Software Equivalent |
| I want to lose weight so I can perform better in my personal and professional life | Platform:Â Business Mission Critical – General business and management information system host platform environments that perform functions critical to the execution of the enterprise’s primary mission |
| I’d like my body to be slimmer and more attractive | Application: Graphical User Interface – the impacts of developing user interfaces for business and other applications. |
| I’m willing to increase my exercise and significantly modify my diet. | Acquisition Type: Major Modification – Design will change up to 30% and regression testing will need to be done on all code. |
| I prefer to measure my performance in short cycles to ensure I’m making progress | Development Method: Agile Full – The primary criterion for determining the content of each repetition is customer need (and is typically customer driven). The focus of this strategy is for the software to evolve as the customer requirements are interpreted and implemented over time. |
| I will need a nutritionist and personal trainer to keep me motivated and encourage my success | Development Standard:Â Â Commercial High – assumes relatively formal processes and reviews to ensure that sufficient documentation is available to maintain and update the software. |
                              Â
Now then, all that’s left is to decide is how much weight I want to lose!  The best approach would be to look at this as a problem of “calories may cometh but more calories must go-eth!â€Â  Since, 3500 is the typical number of calories burned per pound of fat, then for every pound I want to lose I multiply that number by 3500.  For example, if I want to lose 35 pounds (hypothetically speaking… honestly), then 3500 x 35 pounds = 122,500. This now represents my calorie weight loss goal.
Of course I need to know my current size expressed as calories (rounding down) 200 x 3500 = 700,000
That means my ideal weight in calories would be (700,000 – 122,500) = 577,500 (or 165 pounds). Now there’s a goal!
Using estimation speak – I can say I have 700,000 preexisting calories, plan to delete 122,500 calories so that my effective size will be 577,500 calories. Easy, right?  Â
But, before I go much farther I need to decide what would be a safe and reasonable number of pounds to lose per month. After all, I’m not interested in a starvation diet – (Emmm, Beer!), but I don’t want this to take forever. Why not a goal of one year! That way this time next year I can pick a new resolution.  So, my goal is (122,500 / 12 months) or 10,208 calories per month.
Finally, using the SEER for Software cost estimation software from Galorath Incorporated, all I have to do is:
- Create a proxy that reflects my calories per month in effort I’ll need to expend,
- Select my knowledge bases using the table above,
- Plug in my ideal weight into the “design for reuse amountâ€,
- Enter the amount of weight to be lost as my “preexisting not designed for reuseâ€
Drum roll please… and voila!   The answer is I can lose the weight in Ten Months using a peak staff of 4.4 people (Me, trainer, dietician, and fan club I suppose).
Wow –only ten months for me to lose all this hypothetical weight!  And that makes sense, because as the plan progresses I will be building muscle that burns the calories even faster.  Using the SEER for Software cost estimation modeling application I’ve proven that you really can build a parametric model for anything!  Now all I need is a ten month sabbatical, funding for the full time dietitian and trainer, and a fan club.  Any volunteer
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.