Barry Boehm Tribute
What a privilege it was to participate in the recent tribute to Dr Barry Boehm in Beijing. In addition to Professor Boehm himself, many of the icons of software research were present. There were some amazing presentations which should be posted on the web soon. The presentation I gave includes an introduction to Barry’s academic genealogy and his PhD legacies, Jo Ann Lane and Ricardo Valerdi, as well as an amplification of the 8 principles in Barry’s introduction to my book: Software Sizing, Estimation, and Risk Management.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Software Integrate Then Test
I have recently heard people referring to the integrate then test approach to software development and was concerned about its risks.
After an excellent talk by Rational’s Walker Royce, I now understand the approach and agree that it can reduce project risk.
Here is what is meant:
Essentially it doesn’t mean to not test units of software at all, just throwing initial compiled versions into the integration mix.
It does mean taking nominally working software components, before all the coverage testing, stress testing, etc. and integrating them to test the integration itself before spending all the time on the individual testing of software that might not integrate… working out the integration issues first. Read more
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Lessons Learned On Major Engineering Program: Viable Cost Estimates Needed
Recently one of our analysts attended a “lessons learned” presentation on a very large scale, joint service engineering program. The conclusions listed by the program management team sound like some warnings we reference in the introduction to a SEER training course.
Consider…
“Chronically unrealistic cost estimates tainted the budget process and set up the program for cost overruns.
“Incomplete, inaccurate estimates of heritage [software code] contributed to cost estimation problems and led to significantly optimistic assessment of technical & programmatic risk.
“Failure to create clear, detailed performance expectations & incentives.”
While the last item is foremost a contracting issue, all of these problems can be addressed through the correct use of SEER hardware and software models. And since all estimates are only as good as their inputs, honestly assessing technical and programmatic parameters in comparison to SEER knowledge base defaults and risk-adjusted outputs can place programs on the path to success throughout the acquisition lifecycle.
Solutions to these issues are covered on this blog, in SEER webinars and SEER training classes. We hope to see you there.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Knowledge Bases: Corporate History Captured For All
Thanks to Galorath’s Sam Sanchez for this note on Knowledge Bases. Knowledge bases allow users to use the SEER models for cost estimation, cost analysis, schedule prediction, reliability and other information with industry standard and custom calibrated information:
I routinely work with customers on the advanced integration of our models to a company’s cost estimation process. A key issue that often comes up is the importance of using what we refer to as Knowledge Bases (Kbases). I roughly describe these as templates which contain a set of parameter inputs validated useful under certain conditions. In our hardware model, we have Kbases for Application, Platform, Acquisitions, Standards and Class. Kbases have become a critical model feature due to information collected within an organization capturing their internal and external knowledge. Kbases balance this out by allowing the user to quickly create a sort of “default” position which is valid under a given circumstance.
Aside from the ease of use, this model feature is critical in ensuring consistent and reasonable inputs. Good Kbases act as a grounding mechanism to allow a reasonable start to an estimate. From there, the estimator can further tune his or her position. Starting an estimate from a blank slate is possible, but will always produce varied results depending on the understanding of the estimator. A team using a validated set of Kbases tends to produce more consistent (and defendable) results. And more junior personnel gain the benefit of the knowledge of more senior personnel.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
“The Wisdom of Crowds” In Estimating
WRONG: “No one in this world, so far as I know, has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people.” -H. L. Mencken
I am in process going through the book “The Wisdom of Crowds.” The book’s point is that large groups of people are smarter than the elite, most brilliant few, at solving problems, making good decisions, stimulating innovation, and predicting the future.
This counter-intuitive point has significant ramifications in estimation, planning and control.
Of course the “crowd” needs to be people who understand the domain and issues of whatever needs to be estimated, such as the size or parameters in a SEER estimate, and they must be motivated to achieve the right answer, not the politically correct, self serving, or wished-for answer, but the truth.
Answering questions such as: Why is the line in which you’re standing always the longest? Why are there traffic jams? What’s the best way to win money on a game show?
I find this interesting on many levels as well as pointing out why our estimate by comparison function works so well when a team provides the answers.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Estimating Telecommuting Costs & Benefits
Today I received the results of a study on the benefits of telecommuting, prepared for Citrix, which offers remote collaboration technology. The paper discusses the many benefits of telecommuting for those jobs where telecommuting is feasible.
According to the paper, half-time telecommuting is the average for those who telecommute. The article points out potential productivity increases from telecommuting as well as a number of employee specific benefits such as time, gas, accident risks, etc.
It is interesting that they point out ”fewer interruptions” as a benefit. While I am sure some interruptions are non-productive, I have seen some great productivity increases when people are together and can discuss difficult problems “over the water cooler.”
SEER’s multi-site parameter has been proven over time for projects that are geographically diverse AND where people are not immediately accessible. Yet VoiP, Webex, Citrix, and other collaboration technologies have made great strides in bringing people together virtually. Businesses report losses of $600 billion annually in workplace distractions. But the study did not identify how much productivity gains from being together.
SEER-SEM Multi-Site Development sensitivity
I personally work at home for part of each day… answering emails and working on items where I need quiet time before I head to the office. And I do work from home all day a few times per month, usually when I have a paper due or some other deliverable.
Funny, as I was writing this blog post (from my home office…today is a telecommuting day) I received a call from our CFO. We are having a board meeting tomorrow. And I had planned to have conversations with the board group who will be in two time zones and pull in a person who is three time zones earlier… I ended up planning to have this gentleman on the phone at 5:30am…oops). That is really not so much a telecommuting issue as a true multiple site issue… It is more difficult to coordinate with people scattered across the globe.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
DoD Affordability: Implementing Directive For Ash Carter Initiative
A lot of people are interested in DoD’s initiative for improving affordability, often referred to as the Ash Carter memo. Here it is from NDIA and others: “Implementation Directive for Better Buying Power: Guidance for Obtaining Greater Efficiency and Productivity in Defense Spending,” issued by Dr. Ashton Carter, DoD AT&L, concerning implementation instructions for a series of measures aimed at improving efficiencies and reducing costs in support of Secretary Gates’ Efficiency Initiative. This directive and guidance are effective immediately.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Off Topic: Estimating the Occurence of Phantom Traffic Jams
Estimating the slowdown on the freeway. Interesting article from Wired quantifies and estimates the occurrence of phantom traffic jams. You all know them… traffic slows to a crawl. There must be an accident. But no, it is just a phantom traffic jam. Living in Los Angeles I find this really interesting.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Addressing the Need for More Female Computer Science Graduates
Gender equity in computing has long been a national goal advanced by those concerned with fairness and by those who know that the female point of view improves the design and development of software systems. Unfortunately, the percentage of young women entering computing-related majors keeps falling, and the female dropout rate is higher than the very high male dropout rate.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts a large increase in the need for B.S. and M.S. computing graduates in the next decade. The largest untapped pool of potential computing majors and, eventually, computing professionals, is science- and math-talented high school students, but only about 10% of entering undergraduate majors in computing majors are female. Despite the many initiatives aimed at attracting young women, the number of female computing majors keeps dropping.
Prof David Klappholz is involved in the Real Projects for Real Clients Courses (RPRCC) initiative, a K-12 and college level ACM-W project aimed at recruiting young women into, and retaining them in, computing-related majors. The initiative’s approach is based upon a 35-year-long psychological study that followed hundreds of mathematically- and scientifically-talented youth from middle school to middle age and elucidates gender differences in career choice.
Galorath’s head of development is female, as is nearly half our development staff. And so naturally from us, three cheers for RPRCC!
From http://users.drew.edu/ftrees/TECS/Session_Descriptions.htm
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Schedule As an Independent Variable
There has been much talk given, in some development circles, of CAIV, cost as an independent variable (you can request my software CAIV briefing via comment on this BLOG.) This means what it costs should be a keycriterion just like other key criteria such as functionality and performance. In a CAIV analysis there is a balance: what you get and how much it costs. This is a good thing since functionality only has a certain value, and spending more on it causes other things to suffer.
Schedule as an Independent Variable (SAIV) has significant merit as well. Getting it done when I need it, perhaps with less functionality than what I think I need (the Agile community points out a third of software functionality developed is rarely used or doesn’t add significant usefulness.) In an outsourced environment there are several main elements to SAIV:
- Incentives for positive contractor performance
- Penalties for poor contractor performance
- Clear definition of the minimum acceptable capability
- Pay the bonus ONLY for major completion, not time phased
Of course, an impossible date will help no one. A minimum time schedule as SEER provides and many iterations are key to success.
SAIV is applicable to computer projects (until Brooks law kicks in) and has been used successfully in construction. F0r example: the Santa Monica freeway repair following the 1994 North-ridge earthquake is an example of a successful SAIV project. Contractors wre informed that that if work completed after the date they would e penalized $200,000 per day and they would receive a bonus of $200,000 per day for each day they beat the schedule.
The winning contractor, made schedule (SAIV) a key criterion. Repairs were completed 74 days early: a $14.5 million bonus. Because the state of California estimated that the freeways closure cost Los Angeles economy $1 million a day, the speediness of completion may have saved the state as much as $34 million. And as a Los Angeles resident I can attest to the community morale improvement provided by SAIV.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Project Prediction Infographic
