Estimating The Costs Of “Far Out” Spacecraft with SEER
SEER’s advanced spacecraft estimating model provides cost of spacecraft “far out” in the future based on key technical and performance parameters (KTPPs). The model incorporates a neural network and has been delivered. This is extremely useful for long range planning for organizations that deal with space such as NASA, USAF, and many others. While the model works with any kind of mission a paper was published as requested by AIAA on Earth Orbital spacecraft. The abstract follows:
“As orbital vehicles evolve at an ever increasing rate, replete with the introduction of new technologies and system concepts, the need for cost estimating methods that can look beyond the configurations of today becomes ever more crucial. Cost models normally are calibrated using at best contemporary missions, with no allowance given for technological change over time. For our modeling, a ‘black box’ perspective was adopted on spacecrafts’ internal configurations. All models used a mix of performance and technical parameters generally lying at the outer envelope in a design solution. We tested potential models against a facsimile of the future, i.e., calibrating them against a past ‘window’ of data and then testing the calibrated models against data lying ten to fifteen years ahead of the test sample. The performance of a variety of methods is presented, as well as the more detailed characteristics of the final model.”
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