Estimating The Weight Increase of Americans
A recent study determined that overeating is the primary cause of increasing obesity in the US. Researchers computed how many calories Americans ate in the ’70s
“weight gain in the American population seems to be virtually all due to the consumption of more calories, with declines in physical activity playing only a minor role” Professor B. Swinburn
The study calculated calories required to maintain stable weight and how much children needed to grow properly.
They used national food supply data from the 1970s and the early 2000s to estimate expected weight gain over the 30 years, assuming food was the only factor, and compared that to the actual weight gains from surveys of Americans’ weights.
In children the predicted weight gain matched exactly.
In adults they predicted 23.8 pound increases and found adults are actually 18.9 pounds heavier.
Their conclusions were that children need to reduce calories by about 350 per day and adults by about 500 per day.
This does not mean quit exercising. It does mean eat less.
Having studied weight, nutrition and exercise for some years, a number of other issues come to mind:
Net Vs Gross Weight: We see the net increase in adult weight but do not know the gross weight gain / loss over the period. I suspect this doesn’t correlate as well with gross food consumption since some diets are at different levels on the food chain than others. And how many pounds would Americans have grown if not for on-again, off-again diets? And crash diects usually cause lean mass loss while regaining is all fat, thus decreasing lean mass and basic calorie burn.
Age Related Muscle Loss: As people age, even if their weight is stable, they generally lose lean mass and replace it with fat. Fat burns less calories than lean so they end up being able to eat less to maintain weight. Maintaining or increasing lean mass comes primarily from strength training.
Body Fat Percentage: What is the change in body fat percentage over the same period. Body fat percentage is my personal metric of choice. I dont care how much I weigh, so long as my body fat percentage keeps dropping. My personal data would predict a weight loss but I have had a gain as I dropped my body fat percentage via heavy weight lifting.
Additional Weight Does Cause Increased Calorie Burn During Exercise: Calorie burn for walking, running, etc. is generally mass times distance. More mass (weight) causes more calories to be burned while walking, running, etc. I personally sometimes wear a 25 pound weighted vest (if I am walking on a flat trail) to increase the calories burned per unit time. Obese people, if they exercise, accomplish this without the weighted vest.
Exercise Calories Are Often Overestimated: I cringe when I see the ads for my wife’s gym “burn up to 500 calories in your workout” She measured calorie burn at just over half that, working as hard as she could. And she observes the majority of women in the gym barely move. Going to the gym and barely moving is a great improvement over being sedentary. But here is the problem… They go to the gym… burn perhaps 75 to 150 calories, then reward themselves for working out with a 600 calorie muffin. Result.. they continue to gain weight.
So, yes, most of us need to eat a bit less (500 calories per day on average from the study). But please, pick up the exercise as well. And measure calories in and calories out.
PS: I did not have access to the entire study results. My apologies if I have missed something.
PS2: A prominent UCLA nutrition Doctor, Dr. David Heber told me once that when he went to medical conventions he would post the calories of the refreshments served. Once people saw those calories they did not eat them. And Dr. Heber was asked to stop posting them. That is the state of eating in America.
PS:3 This study was done in Australia, the home of Tim Tams… the best cookies I have ever eaten… which are served constantly.
Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page or call us at +1 310 414-3222.
Related posts:
- Estimating Weight Impact of Thanksgiving Dinner This is in a bit of a different vein than most of what is written in estimating here but it...
- Weight Management = Measurement and Estimation Weight management is all about measurement and estimation. Estimating quantity of food, measuring when possible, measuring calories burned during exercise....
- The Mistake of Measuring Everything I recently participated in a seminar with Larry Dribin of Pearl Street Group. Larry did a beautiful job with a...
- Modeling a New Year’s Resolution In Relation to SEER Another masterpiece by Galorath’s David DeWitt follows. Amazing it is nearly New Years again. And that it has been 4...
- Design To Cost Metrics Can Help Increase Project Value While Reducing Cost An interesting paperBy Quentin Redman and George Stratton in the Fall 2008 SCEA Journal discussed implementation of Design To Cost....
Comments
3 Responses to “Estimating The Weight Increase of Americans”
Leave a Reply
Project Prediction Infographic
Michael Pollen, author of Fast Food Nation, was asked to write a new book about eating. He had less to write in the end than he thought. His basic advice “Eat Food, Eat Mostly Plants”
ps – Just got done doing a bunch of chair lifts off my arm rests. Feels good!
ps – By “Food” I think he meant real food, not processed food. Stay away from the aisles of the supermarket and shop only on its peripheries.
Interesting site, but much advertisments on him. Shall read as subscription, rss.