“Far Out” Estimating the Costs Of Satellites Far Into The Future
I had the opportunity to brief part of the space community on the latest release of the SEER Far Out model for cost estimating. Far Out estimates the costs of satellite systems far out into the future. Why would anyone want such an estimate, you may ask. Estimates of systems in the future made today can change planning and approaches for future generations of technology.
This capability is of interest to:
- Military space asset planners
- Government agencies
- Commercial satellite producers
- Advanced concept designers
I have been excited about this project ever since its research began several years ago. It needed to deal with technology readiness levels (TRL), that is how available is the technology being used for systems developed in the future.
Technology readiness levels are interesting since, when they are low, estimates are extremely difficult and will, by nature, have a large range. For example, if you asked Thomas Edison in 1876 how much and how long it would take to develop the light bulb, he likely would have had no clue before the basic carbon filament was invented. This was a TRL 1 problem. He had no good way to know how long it would take him to get the most basic technology to a level that would be adequate for a product.
In 1979, once the carbon filament was developed to TRL 4, Mr. Edison would have had a much easier time providing development and production estimates. NASA’s technology readiness level scale follows:
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