Learning Curves and the Lore of The Slope
As I am editing the section of the ISPA parametric handbook course section i will be teaching in Saint Lewis I reviewed the great work of Galorath’s Evin Stump in learning curves. The following are some of Evin’s guidelines on slope. Learning curve can be a huge driver in cost estimating. Evin also has a wonderful paper on learning curves. I can provide upon request.
- Fit learning curves to historical data when available
- This is usually the best source, but not always
- Guidelines for use when historical data are not available:
- Operations that are fully automated tend to have slopes of 100%, or a value very close to that (no learning can happen)
- Operations that are entirely manual tend to have slopes in the vicinity of 70% (maximum learning can happen)
- If an operation is 75% manual and 25% automated, slopes in the vicinity of 80% are common.
- f it is 50% manual and 50% automated, expect about 85%.
- If it is 25% manual and 75% automated, expect about 90%.
- The average slope for the aircraft industry is about 85%.
- But there are departments in a typical aircraft factory that may depart substantially from that value.
- Shipbuilding slopes tend to run between 80 and 85%.
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Project Prediction Infographic
Learning curves are underutilized outside of professional estimating. Contracting throughout all industries can benefit from constant vigilance into learning curve effects, particularly for unit cost items as are common in manufacturing.
Can you provide me the Evin Stump paper on Learning Curves.
Thank you