Pairwise Comparisons Use In Estimation and Decision Making
I first became acquainted with Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in the mid ’80s when a professor from Penn State offered up the technique for estimating size. We then did some joint work on AHP for software sizing.
Ever since Tom Satty’s AHP, over the past two decades, estimating using pairwise comparisons has proven to be an excellent decision support and estimating technique as well as a technique for making difficult decisions. I have used Satty’s AHP, the old SEER-SSM, the prior SEER-AccuScope, and the current SEER Comparison Estimating (part of the SEER suite). All have worked well. The the newest SEER Comparison Estimating even performs a Monte Carlo Analysis as part of its process, refining uncertainty ranges.
Recently, working on the GAO Cost guidebook there has been some question if AHP is a viable technique or if it introduces too much bias. I was surprised at this since I have personally use pairwise techniques successfully so many times.
I sent this to Lee Fischman, the SEER Estimate By Comparison architect (I am reminded by Lee that we don’t use AHP but a much more sophisticated technique) From Lee:
“I don’t see a real attack on the algorithm, but on the user’s potential to be reasonable.
It could be argued that user bias is reduced somewhat as paired comparisons tend to encourage reasonableness of an individual estimator through partial repetition of comparisons, and from multiple perspectives.”
Lee also points out that he briefed SEER’s AccuScope (Prior to SEER Estimate By Comparison) sizing at the 2006 NASA cost symposium and it was excellent. If you would like a copy of the presentation contact me and I will arrange it.
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