“The Wisdom of Crowds” In Estimating

Author: · January 16, 2011 · Filed Under Estimating, Estimation Process, Thoughts  - 1 Comment(s)

 WRONG: “No one in this world, so far as I know, has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people.” -H. L. Mencken

I am in process going through the book “The Wisdom of Crowds.”  The book’s point is that large groups of people are smarter than the elite, most brilliant  few, at solving problems, making good decisions, stimulating innovation, and  predicting the future.

This counter-intuitive point has significant ramifications in estimation, planning and control.

Of course the “crowd” needs to be people who understand the domain and issues of whatever needs to be estimated, such as the size or parameters in a SEER estimate, and they must be motivated to achieve the right answer, not the politically correct, self serving, or wished-for answer, but the truth.

Answering questions such as: Why is the line in which you’re standing always the longest? Why are there traffic jams? What’s the best way to win money on a game show?   

I find this interesting on many levels as well as pointing out why our estimate by comparison function works so well when a team provides the answers.

Thank you for reading “Dan on Estimating”, if you would like more information about Galorath’s estimation models, please visit our contact page, call us at +1 310 414-3222 or click a button below to ask sales questions, sign up for our free library or schedule a demo.

Comments

One Response to ““The Wisdom of Crowds” In Estimating”

  1. David DeWitt on January 18th, 2011 2:59 pm

    I finished that book a month ago. It was quite insightful.

    Made me appreciate Delphi and Planning Poker approaches much more.

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